Maybe you can light my (bon)fire

The 487th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

This weekend we having the running of "The Derby" at Epsom. Of all the horseracing run on the "flat", this race epitomises the peak to which all those connected with the sport hope to aspire. As I write, there are only 12 declared for the premier classic race this Saturday, the market being headed by the 8/11 fav from Ireland, CAMELOT. This horse is being claimed to be a world beater, and I must admit being highly impressed with his win in the 2000 Guineas earlier this month. However, having seen Nijinsky win the race - beating fewer rivals – at odds of 11/8 back in 1970, and Nashwan (another Guineas winner) win the 1989 Derby at 5/4, those odd look too short to me. I won a fair wedge on BONFIRE when he won the "Dante" at York and, at odd of 5/1 with Ladbrokes, with more "depth" to his stamina already proven he looks the better value. I can see him starting the 7/2, 2nd fav this weekend.

Due to work commitments, I am not able to put as much form research into my racing these days which (I suppose) is a good thing for me personally in these recessionary times. As a result, the blog has suffered in recent months with sporadic bursts of activity punctuating the lapses. It is not really possible for me to produce daily selections in the time I have available during the flat season so, over the coming months, I am going to focus more on general racing issues with the occasional race review when time is on my side.

My abiding love is with the jump racing scene, and I will be producing and updating my personal alert list over the coming months so that I'm ready to hit the ground running and take advantage come 1st October.

I noted that Aidan O'Brien still has SO YOU THINK entered for the Queen Anne Stakes which is the opening race of the Royal Ascot meeting, and that could lead to a head-to-head encounter with FRANKEL. Strictly on the formbook, So You Think has little chance if being able to hold Frankel, but this is horseracing. If so You Think does drop to the mile trip for the Queen Anne, then I expect connections will take the race to him and challenge Frankel for the lead from the start, thereby making full use of the stamina of So You Think. Throw-in the tenacious temperament of the older horse, and Frankel could be eye-balled for the 1st time in his racing life. Will he relish the challenge, or will he wimp-out? This, for me, is a much more realistic challenge for champion miler Frankel, than meeting the Australian "wonder-mare" BLACK CAVIAR over a mile in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on 1st August. Black Caviar is a 6-furlong specialist, and an extremely quick one at that. She would very much be the underdog having to meet the champion miler (and possibly the best miler since Tudor Minstrel in 1947) over his optimum trip. Thankfully, the Australian connections have seen sense and put that idea to bed, and are aiming the mare at Royal Ascot after which she will return "down-under".

Any wagers that I am contemplating today will be posted via my twitter account: @wayward_lad

Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!  Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

BHA "Jump" Ratings

The 486th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No success for the blog yesterday, tho' events were outside the realms of foresight for the writer. The evening selection CRAIGLANDS was a late non-runner. I was fairly right about his odds as when I last looked he was at 13/2 and, given the way the race panned-out, I reckon he would have gone close. Not sure why the going was given as a reason for him being a non-runner as I thought it was perfect for him. As for my afternoon selection at Brighton – WELSH INLET – I'm not sure what happened. The horse was going well enough until veering violently across the track and was pulled-up. Again, given the way the race panned-out, I'm fairly sure that she would have been involved in the finish and had a better than 9/2 chance (her SP) of winning.

For me, this is what the stewards are there for. The horse was the 9/2, 3rd-fav having been supported in from 11/2 so punters who had money on deserved an explanation. What we got was silence. If nothing else, the stewards should have asked the jockey for an explanation and an examination of the kit should have been done and reported on. Finally, the horse should have been examined by the course vet and, again, his findings should have been reported. If there was no discernible reason for the action of the horse, then other scenarios could be considered – was the horse "spooked" by an object or noise? Still, I suppose the stewards had a nice seafood luncheon accompanied by a decent bottle of Muscadet as they wiled away the hours on a sunny summers day.

Racing this afternoon is poor, and I'll probably be looking at the evening jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Worcester for any wagers that I may play. As we are expecting more sun and high temperatures today, which will affect the going, there is a high likelihood of non-runners - so not much point in reviewing those evening meetings just yet.

Yesterday, the 2011-12 NH Ratings were published by the BHA and they make interesting reading. The first "issue" I have is why (after a dismal season) LONG RUN is still rated OR178? As the Racing Post's Steve Mason (who produces the Racing Post Ratings) writes in today's paper "was LONG RUN's win in the 2011 (Gold Cup) race really a stone (14lb) superior to Synchronised?" I said LONG RUN was over-rated after he won the 2011 Gold Cup, and I have maintained my stance ever since. Finally, it seems, more prominent judges than me are coming to the same conclusion. The horse "got lucky" in the spring of 2011, meeting (and beating) a much under-the weather Kauto Star and – in Denman – a horse who was a shadow of his former brilliant self.

One horse I am really looking forward to lumping on the next time he runs, is CUE CARD who has an OR157 rating. For me, CUE CARD is thrown-in off that rating as I'd have him about 6lb light of Sprinter Sacre, and I'd have the "Arkle" winner on 172. Off that rating of OR157, he can win the Paddy Power at Cheltenham this November and go on to take the Ryanair (if he doesn't go for the Gold Cup) next March at Cheltenham.

Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!  Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.