Wayward Lad

Will the BHA listen?

2012-02-09T12:08:00.001Z

The 434th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Again, no jump racing today in the UK. The prospect of jump racing in the next couple of days is slight with the news that my local track at Plumpton is to inspect on Sunday at 8am before deciding on whether to attempt to have the planned meeting there on Monday.

The lack of jump racing in the UK is causing the industry and trainers to start thinking outside the box (for a change) with Kempton holding a NH only flat meeting on the all-weather surface there on Friday evening. Top trainer Nicky Henderson is sending his World Hurdle hope - Oscar Whisky – there and no wonder, as otherwise he'd likely go to the Festival without a run since the 1st January. Meetings are still planned for Saturday at Newbury and Musselburgh, but I'm not hopeful of either going ahead. It is therefore, a bit disappointing that some of the English "big guns" have not taken advantage of racing at Leopardstown and sent some of their horses over the Irish Sea.

The upside is that I was able to put in another 4 or 5 hours on the Cheltenham Festival Bulletin and I'm on target to hit my 15th February issue date. Donations have been coming in, and those who do donate the minimum of £5 will receive copies of the antepost advice emails that I have already sent out.

I had a great response via the "comments" box on yesterday's blog "patience is a virtue" from Jason at High Class Equine (you will find the link to the site on the adjacent column). Jason has supported this blog almost from the start, and he runs a terrific blog himself which is well worth a visit as he updates it regularly. Since I started blogging in March 2010 (almost 2-years now, blimey!) what has impressed me is the amount of knowledge there is out there and how generous bloggers are in being willing to share it. My first port of call every morning is the blogs that are on my list, and I can't really remember the last time I read any of the columns by the regular journalists in the Racing Post (tho' I do think that new weekly "Racecourse Walks" column is a good idea, and I hope they walk the old course at Lewes on the South Downs here in Sussex). My racing paper of choice is the Weekender, and my only gripe about that paper is the lack of readers' letters in their "Feedback" column. However, that isn't their fault, more the general apathy of its readers. There is much in racing that isn't right and the BHA (if that is the proper forum for rectification) can't put these issues right unless enough people tell them to sort it out.

For instance, we are rapidly approaching crisis point with on-course bookmakers and calculation of the SP, and this is evidence of a much bigger problem – financing of horseracing as a whole. Fair enough, the Racing Post brought this to general attention with a leader article and, on the Racing UK website, Tanya Stevenson (Channel 4 racing) wrote an excellent blog in response. I've a lot of time for Tanya as she is one of the few faces of the horseracing media who has actually worked on the business side of the fence as a bookmaker for many years. My opinion is that it is about time that the BHA came out of their ivory tower and actually started talking to those who depend on horseracing for their livelihood rather than only to those whose connection with racing is that it's a nice hobby that gets them outside in the fresh air occasionally. Horseracing is a huge business concern, but it is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy and – as the racing industry in Italy has recently discovered – if the sums done add up it can quickly collapse beyond repair, and heritage and history won't come into it.

No selections today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Patience is a virtue

2012-02-08T10:05:00.000Z

The 433rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Another day with no jump racing today. With the weather forecast looking bleak, and temperatures expected to drop below minus-10 degrees Celcius over much of the UK between now and Sunday, it is in all likelihood that we won't have any racing (other than on the all-weather tracks) before Monday. As I write, both Huntingdon and Taunton meetings for Thursday have been called-off and abandoned.

Basically, if you are a punter who (like me) is not a fan of the all-weather then I suggest you leave it well alone and wait for the weather to change. Yesterday, I was tempted to have a wager on the 3:45 at Southwell as I thought Caldercruix held an excellent chance in what looked an open race over 6-furlongs. I was lucky in that I took 8.20 on the exchanges early in the afternoon, and then laid-off my stake at 5.40 just before the off for a no-risk wager. Caldercruix missed the break (he was expected to run prominently thru'out) and was forced to run wide around the turn into the straight. Altho' he stayed on well he was never going to win after fluffing the start, but he did manage to snatch 3rd close home. For me it was a lucky escape from a losing wager and a lesson learned.

I wrote yesterday about Bog Warrior and I've learned this morning that he is also entered for a 2-mile chase at Leopardstown on the Saturday (as well as the Dr PJ Moriarty chase on Sunday over 2m4f). His trainer seems more inclined to go for the Saturday race, I'm not sure as to his reasons why. If jump racing does go ahead in Ireland this weekend, those horse that compete will be holding a fitness edge over those here in England that are unable to race having been aimed at the weekend programme. I have today's copy of the Weekender with the weekend's entries, and I shall be noting those horses whose plans include a Festival target – they need a prep run, and soon.

I have titled this page "patience is a virtue" and the reason is do not be hustled by the devil on your shoulder to get involved in Cheltenham Festival antepost markets unless you are sure of plans involving your selection. I have advised wagers on a couple of Festival races (and one advice has more than halved in odds already following a good win in his prep race) but I'm holding fire on any more just yet, pending this weekend's racing in Ireland. The Cheltenham Festival Bulletin is well under-way (about 60% complete) with a target date for despatch (by email) to those who have made a contribution to the blog of at least £5 during the past 12 months. So, if you want to be included in the mailing list, you know what to do.

No selections today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

The most important trial for Cheltenham is on Sunday

2012-02-07T11:06:00.001Z

The 432nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

With no jump racing today, nor tomorrow (the meetings at Carlisle and Ludlow have already been abandoned) the search for opportunities to get a preparatory run-in before the Valentine's Day cut-off is becoming more desperate. My research suggests that it is vitally important for horses holding realistic chances of winning at the Cheltenham Festival (in all races excepting the Gold Cup) to get their last run between 1st January and 14th February.

This weekend sees perhaps the last chance for horses to get that run and, as it happens every year, we have perhaps the most influential meeting prior to the Festival taking place in Ireland at Leopardstown on Sunday. The Dr PJ Moriarty Chase has provided the winners of the last 3, RSA Chases (Cooldine, Weapons Amnesty and Boston's Angel) and a winner of the Arkle (Forpadydeplasterer) over the last 3 seasons. For me, it is a race that I put a lot of faith in and, as such, I think Tom Segal (Pricewise in the Racing Post) may have jumped the gun by nominating Silviniaco Conti as his antepost selection for the RSA. For sure, if Grands Crus goes for the Gold Cup – and I think he has a realistic chance of winning that in what could be the weakest Gold Cup we've had since, well last year – then Silviniaco Conti will shorten considerably from his current best quote of 14/1 (Ladbrokes). But, do not overlook the Irish challenger that should be Bog Warrior. I'm expecting Bog Warrior to win the Dr PJ Moriarty on Sunday and, as Grands Crus will still be heading the betting for the RSA Chase, we should be able to get 8/1 or better once the result is known.

I really think this year's Gold Cup looks ordinary which is why a 12yo Kauto Star has been able to dominate the staying division this season winning both the Betfair Chase and the King George. Remember, prior to Best Mate's hat-trick of Gold Cups we hadn't seen a Gold Cup winner retain their crown since L'Escargot in 1971. So why Long Run is 9/4 to win next month, when he's been beaten fair'n'square by Kauto Star in both races this season, is beyond me. Long Run is a talented chaser but I doubt he'd have beaten Denman in his prime last March, nor even Imperial Commander for that matter. As seems to be the case with French breds (and I include Kauto Star in this) they seem to reach the peak of their ability early (as 5 or 6yo's) after which their ability plateau's. I personally don't think Long Run has improved one jot since he won the King George in January 2011 in fact his jumping (which was sketchy at best last season) appears to have got worse.

I read the handicap chase at Ayr wrong yesterday as I did not take enough account of the small field and the requirement for both of those who I thought capable of fighting out the finish bouncing back from poor runs. I was right about Posh Bird being unreliable as, despite looking strongest after the last fence, she found nothing when asked and could not pass the one-paced Mister Marker. As for Neptune Equester, he could need to freshen up with a hurdle race.

I was right about SYDNEY PAGET tho' who looks a potential top-class novice. Is he another Peddlers Cross for Donald McCain?

No selections today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Ayr goes ahead

2012-02-06T11:33:00.001Z

The 431st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

With No jump racing on Saturday, I did not write a blog but spent the weekend (when not walking the dogs in the snow – they loved it) researching and writing up the Festival Bulletin. If you are not yet aware, my Festival Bulletin is only being sent out to those who have previously donated funds to the blog. If you want to join this select group of people (who are currently sitting on a 16/1 antepost voucher about a horse that went out and won its next race and now sits as the 7/1 joint fav for his Festival target), then donate at least £5 on the button above. I'm hoping that the Festival Bulletin will be ready to go out on Wednesday 15th February. So, if you want the Festival Bulletin, if you want the antepost advice's, and if you want to read the blog the day before racing during the Cheltenham Festival, you know what to do

During the course of yesterday, I formed a firm opinion about a 2nd race at the Festival and sent out my 2nd antepost email on Sunday evening. Unlike last year when my antepost book was quite large and widespread (but still ended in profit thanks to the 16/1 RSA winner Boston's Angel), this year I am focusing on particular opportunities and it is quite possible that (if circumstances are right) I may recommend an additional wager on a selection previously nominated.

The big news from the weekend was the emphatic win by SIZING EUROPE, who left Big Zeb floundering in his wake. It looks extremely likely that SIZING EUROPE will retain his Champion Chase crown come the Festival and, such is his domination of that race, we could see the defection of intended Champion chase runners to potentially "easier" Festival targets. As such, the field for the Champion Chase could well be small, possibly just 7 or 8 runners.

Onto today, and Ayr have managed to get a meeting together. The novice hurdle at 2:00 over 2m4f looks an interesting encounter as I noted SYDNEY PAGET as a potential top-class novice, and he should be too good for this small field. Later, at 3:40, there is an good class 3 chase over 3m1f. Top-weight Neptune Equester is on a recovery mission following a very poor run LTO. He was a selection of mine that day and altho' this is a drop in class he does not have it easy today despite only have 6 rivals. The soft going will favour the dour-stayer Lockstown, and Mister Marker has been running consistently well without winning this season. Posh Bird comes here on the back of a win LTO, but that win was her first in 28 races. As such, NEPTUNE EQUESTER looks the one to be on as he was worth a punt LTO (in my opinion) and in this easier race he should be shorter than 11/4 (Stan James) especially as the 7/2, 2nd fav is Posh Bird. With Mister Marker (9/2) looking one-paced and unlikely to head the fav if it comes to a dash to the line from the final fence, the biggest danger will likely be Lockstown at 8/1 who, despite a big rise in the ratings for his back-to-back wins in the autumn, will love the going and trip (tho' he would prefer another couple of furlongs). The risk is NEPTUNE EQUESTER comes out in a similar mood to that in which he ran LTO, so the hope is that the cheek-pieces will perk him up. As such, I'd prefer 3/1 but rather than take the 11/4 that's on offer I may have him in a reverse forecast with Lockstown.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

No jump racing again and weekend is doubtful

2012-02-03T10:41:00.000Z

The 430th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No jump racing yesterday (and so, no blog) and there is no jump racing today either. The prospects for the weekend are not good. When I left home this morning at 6:20am, the temperature gauge on my car recorded minus-9 degrees Celsius. Pretty darn cold!

The Sandown card on Saturday has already been abandoned, and it is most unlikely that the Ffos Las meeting tomorrow will go ahead. As for Wetherby, the prospects are slim.

In the past, at times like these, I have been tempted to stray towards the All-Weather racing, but no more. Sure, I will take a look over it and yesterday I came close to a decent winning wager when STEELCUT was beaten just a head into 2nd in the 2:20 at Wolverhampton. I thought he was more like a 7/2 chance on my cursory glance thru' the runners for this "claimer" over 6-furlongs, yet he was being offered at 12.0 (that's 11/1 in "old money") on Betfair. I had problems getting an internet connection yesterday morning (my site office is less than 400 yards from the City Airport in London, yet my 3G signal is pathetically weak) hence another reason for no blog. But, when I managed to get a reasonable signal, I read Glenn's blog at G-Star Frankel (see adjacent link) and he agreed with me about STEELCUT. I posted my thoughts on twitter (my moniker is @wayward_lad) so if you are reading this then do take advantage of the twitter feed. The race was also appraised by Jerry Banks of Jerry's Best Bet's (see adjacent blog link) who specialises in AW Claiming races with great success. Anyway, no winner in STEELCUT, but I didn't lose out.

My Cheltenham Festival Bulletin for 2012 is now well & truly underway, and I am confident that the hard work I've put in (I've done private bulletins for myself and a few close friends for the past few years) will prove invaluable. Here's a taster: if you'd followed one particular formline-come-trend in 2011, then you would have finished the 2011 Festival in profit by over 11pts to a 1pt level stake on all qualifiers. Yet, when I posted the fact on twitter last March on the morning of Day 1 it was met with general derision from some quarters. Some people never learn – perhaps they don't want to!

I've already sent out my 1st antepost email for the Festival (went out on 14th January) and one of the two named horses has been cut from 16/1 to 7/1 for his targeted race; not only that, but he also won his Festival "trial" as I suggested he would in the email. I'm hoping that the Festival Bulletin will be ready to go out on Wednesday 15th February, and it will be sent out free of charge to all those who have made a donation to my blog during the past 12 months. If you want to secure a copy, send me a donation (at least £5 please) and I will send you the bulletin, plus all further email updates regarding the Festival. Last year, I sent out my blog postings to supporters of the blog the evening before racing, and I intend to be doing that again this March.

So, if you want the Festival Bulletin, if you want the antepost advice's, and if you want to read the blog the day before racing during the Cheltenham Festival, you know what to do.

No selections for today's racing.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Stark weather forecast

2012-02-01T09:38:00.002Z

The 429th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

There were no recommended selections yesterday, but I did say the couple of novice chasers that Paul Nicholl's sent out on their racecourse debuts both looked capable of winning. As it happened, SANCTUAIRE did win (at an SP of 13/8) but MERRRION SQUARE didn't. As such, a 1pt levels stakes win wager onboth would have result in a tiny profit, but a profit none-the-less. SANCTUAIRE is a bit of a monkey as he went-off so quick yesterday several "scribes" on twitter reckoned he may be bolting, but he won the race in what looked to be a canter. Connections suggested he may go to the Festival and while in my opinion he will be outclassed in the Arkle (Paul Nicholl's has Al Ferof) I would be interested in him in whatever else he might contest there. Finally, yesterday I titled the blog "Walsh 48% strikerate for Nicholls at Taunton" and Ruby Walsh rode 3 winners for Paul Nicholl's there yesterday: Dildar @ 8/15, Sanctuaire @ 13/8, Ted Spread @ 5/4, and his 4th ride Frankie Figg was unplaced. For punters who enjoy a multiple bet, a 1pt win yankee on those 4 runners (11pts staked) would have returned an 11.44pt profit.

A couple of today's meetings – those at Leicester and Ludlow – have been lost to the weather, and we only have jumps racing at Newcastle. I don't like Newcastle at the best of times and I'm not scrabbling around there looking for a wager today. With the weather likely to take a tight grip over the coming few days, I am taking a look at the Festival meeting and will use the time to start preparations for a Festival Bulletin.

I will be sending this out free-of-charge to those readers of the blog who have previously contributed a donation by way of a gesture of thanks. For anyone else who wants it, when the Festival Bulletin is complete and ready for despatch I'll make an announcement and for a small amount (and I mean small amount) I will send you a copy. Everyone has to makes ends meet and there are a couple of "links" to other websites (see adjacent columns) for which I obtain a small payment for having on my blog.

No selections for today's racing.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Walsh 48% strikerate for Nicholls at Taunton

2012-01-31T12:32:00.000Z

The 428th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We have a couple of meetings over the jumps today; at Taunton and Folkestone – the latter survived an overnight frost scare, but the weather wasn't as bad as forecast.

There is nothing much doing at Folkestone, but the Paul Nicholl's novice chase MERRION SQUARE in the 2:20 could merit some attention. There has been plenty said & written about Nicholl's not being interested in weekday meetings and being just a "Saturday" trainer this season. Personally, I think that is more down to circumstances than anything else. He has a lot of highly rated horses but very few to choose from at the bottom of the handicap – and let's be fair, most weekday racing during the winter months is dire stuff. Throw-in the fact that Nicholl's horses are "over-bought" whether they are in form or not, and you have the scenario were a horse is being sent after a race for which it probably isn't best suited and – due to the fact it's from the Nicholl's stable – is being sent-off at an SP of 3/1 rather than 6/1, and then punters are complaining when it run like a 6/1 chance. Maybe I'm being simplistic, but whenever I can (and, for me, no day is different) I try and always oppose Nicholl's runners. However, today may not be a day for opposition.

With Ruby Walsh making a rare mid-week riding appearance for Nicholl's on a couple of his at Taunton, most notably SANTUAIRE in the 2:40, I think the winning pointer MERRION SQUARE will prove a little bit of value in making the long trip to Folkestone from deepest Somerset. Current odds of 5/2 (available generally)about MERRION SQUARE look fair.

As for SANCTUAIRE, I've been expecting this horse to pop-up in a decent handicap hurdle as he's been running well enough to merit attention in defeat in my book. Several books go 11/8 (chandlers, Ladbrokes) and with the race conditions in his favour should he jump with any ability he should see-off this ordinary field without any problem. Personally, with Ruby Walsh taking the ride I thought he'd be odds-on for this.

I cannot advise either as a win wager as both fall below my odds-for-a-wager cut-off point of 3/1, and also both are making their chasing debut under rules – but it would not surprise me to see both of the come home easy winners.

No selections for today's racing.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Festival thoughts no clearer

2012-01-30T12:07:00.000Z

The 427th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Saturday's blog was again met with mixed success – just as it had been the previous week. Again, both my advised wagers both lost but, just like the previous week, if you had read the complete narrative then you'd have been on a winner (or two). This is a particularly frustrating period for me as, with the benefit of hindsight, for the 2nd Saturday in succession I would have been better-off advising a 1pt win level stakes wager on all those named on the blog. With wins for GRUMETI (7/4) and BLESS THE WINGS (13/2), the defeats of Chance Du Roy, Diamond Harry and Wayward Prince would not have stopped the day ending in profit – instead, my blog ended the day 4pts down. It is something that I will ponder on this week. Personally, as a result of Bless The Wings, and also on-account of place-laying non-stayer Aiteen Thirtythree in the Skybet Chase, I had a cracking day.

BLESS THE WINGS looks another great handicapper for Alan King who is having a great season. As for Aiteen Thirtythree, how this horse managed to start the Skybet Chase as the 11/2 joint fav with 11st 10lbs is beyond me. I made up my mind about the horse before the RSA last March that he did not stay beyond 2m6f in competitive company and on Saturday I placed-laid him at 2.10 before the off and also at 1.80 with less than a mile to go. Unbelievably, the horse touched 1.15 in the place-only market in-running but went out like a light 3-out. My recommended selection in the Skybet Chase was Wayward Prince, and he certainly ran like his name. He was not interested at all in racing early-on, and full marks to Timmy Murphy for keeping him going when perhaps 30-lengths off the pace at one point in the opening mile. Many would have pulled-him-up and yet the horse kept going finishing strongly in the final mile – overtaking Aiteen Thirtythree – and coming home in 7th less than 20-lengths behind the winner Calgary Bay. I've no idea why the horse was reticent to race early-on, but the way he went on to run suggests he would have been bang there at the finish but for throwing it away at the start. As such, WAYWARD PRINCE remains on my alert list.

We saw a potential Festival winner at Leopardstown yesterday in FLEMENSTAR who romped home in the Irish "Arkle" novice chase, however, he's not going to the Cheltenham Festival. That declaration by his connections further muddied the Festival betting and my own thoughts on the Festival are no clearer. In past years, I usually spend the Sunday after the Cheltenham Trials Day formulating my Festival "yankee", but this year I am stuck. The races I tend to focus on are the Championship races of Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Ryanair and Gold Cup, plus (in past years) the World Hurdle. I was fortunate to be on Inglis Drever when he won at 5/1 in 2007, and Big Bucks when he won his first World at 6/1. However, I can't see any value in the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase as both those races should go to their current champions Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe. The Ryanair is a race that I wrote about a few weeks ago to those who have made a donation. Those people (if they took advantage of the advice) are now holding a 16/1 eachway voucher on Somersby (current odds 7/1) for the Ryanair. In that email, I also advised a 2pt win wager on another horse in the race, and that is NOBLE PRINCE. I have been nothing but impressed with NOBLE PRINCE as a chaser and his latest effort when beaten less than 2-lengths by Big Zeb at levels over an inadequate 2-miles demonstrated to me that he is a better horse this season than last. Not only that, but over the Ryanair trip he could be even better (remember, he easily put Wishful Thinking to the sword over the 2m4f Jewson trip last year). When I sent out my email to those who have donated to my blog, NOBLE PRINCE was 6/1; he's now 7/1 with Vic Chandler and I reckon come the day (and it's just 6 weeks away) he will be the 5/2 fav for the Ryanair, maybe even shorter especially if the sun is shining like it was last year.

As for the Gold Cup, Saturday's result in the Argento Chase left me non-the-wiser as to this year's winner. For me Long Run is too short at 5/2. He clearly met a much under-weather Kauto Star last season and also took advantage of the rapid deterioration of past Gold Cup winners Denman and Imperial Commander to win the Gold Cup last March. Remember, he was chased home when winning the King George in January by Riverside Theatre, and there's no way that horse would be considered to hold a chance in the Gold Cup even if he were running in the race this March. I rate Long Run at 172 and while that makes him Gold Cup standard in a normal year, there is no guarantee that he will run to that level if his jumping is poor. Throw in 160+ performances this season from the like of Planet Of Sound (Hennessey), Weird Al (Charlie Hall), Midnight Chase and the rejuvenated Tidal Bay on Saturday, plus the undoubted potential of Grands Crus and I'd have Long Run at more like 9/2. On form this season, the Gold Cup fav should be Kauto Star, but he looks fairly measured at 4/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Coral etc) and there is no value in his odds. I reckon he can win the Gold Cup in March, but I won't be putting money on him at 4/1 to do so. For me, the "value" has to be on those who have shown the ability to run to the mid-high 160's and I'm looking at Grands Crus at 9/1 (Coral) and Weird Al at 25/1.

No selections for today's racing.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

For Harry and St George!

2012-01-28T11:55:00.000Z

The 426th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I have not blogged much this week as I had the funeral of a very old friend to attend on Thursday. Graham died suddenly at the age of just 51 and it was a great shock to all who knew him. All who were there, and there must have been well over 150 people, had tremendous good feeling for Graham who was an incredibly generous man whose love for life always uplifted your soul. I felt both humble and proud that he had chosen me to be one of his friends, and I will miss him.

Today, we have good meetings at Cheltenham and Doncaster, and another interesting meeting at Uttoxeter. I normally go to the Trials meeting at Cheltenham, but this year I’m watching on tv. The opening Triumph Hurdle trial looks a straight choice between Baby Mix and GRUMETI and I favour the latter who looks as good if not better than Alan King’s previous winners of this race. At 13/8, I’m having a personal wager on him.
Next on the card we have novice handicap chase over 2m5f, and there are 4 from my alert list running in it: Bless The Wings, Carpincho, That’lldoboy and Lexicon Lad. Of those, I favour Bless The Wings and That’lldoboy andboth look well handicapped on OR130 and OR127 respectively. This trip and track should suit BLESS THE WINGS and I reckon he should be a lot shorter than current odds of 6/1, as I’d have him the 4/1 fav.
The next at 2:05 is all about Aerial and whether he should be the fav as The Giant Bolster won over C&D on this card last year and has failed in his attempts to stay 3-mile since. Back to this trip and getting 7lb from Aerial, he will be no pushover. I can’t see either Poquelin or Tamarinbleu getting involved off their ratings, but I do like CHANCE DU ROY at 10/1 taking the 3rd place spot and maybe even giving the leading pair something to think about.
The Argento Chase should go to DIAMOND HARRY and I cannot understand why this horse is not the 2/1 fav for this race. He ran a cracker in the Betfair Chase and based on his Hennessey Gold Cup win, he’s clearly the best horse in this race. The only horse I fear is Midnight Chase who is a better horse than OR158 and he could have them all off the bridle if he turns in a performance like the one that won the Listed handicap chase over C&D in December 2010.

At Doncaster, we have the Skybet Chase and it looks a cracker. First off, Aiteen Thirtythree does not stay 3-miles in this company. I also think you’d be taking a big chance with Shalimar Fromentero to win this as he looks nothing special. I think Galaxy Rock and AP McCoy are a marriage made in heaven, but this trip isn’t far enough at just 3-mile. Qianshan Leader and Shakalakaboomboom both looks well treated on LTO wins and it would not surprise me if either won the race. Cape Tribulation has been crying out for 3-mile so he should also run well today, but needs a step up in his form to win. The two I like are Wymott @ 20/1 and Wayward Prince at 9/1. When this pair met over hurdles in Feb 2010, Wymott was the better horse. As such, if Wymott can get his act together he is a very dangerous horse running off OR142. Wayward Prince ran much better LTO than in his reappearance in the Hennessey Gold Cup (in which Wymott ran 6th) and has been dropped to OR146 which I think is lenient as I reckon he’s OR155+ at his best. I was going to make Wayward Prince my antepost selection earlier this week when he was 16/1, but events overtook me, and he’s just 9/1 now which is not so generous, but I still think he worth and eachway wager. As for Wymott, I’ll have a personal “place-only” wager on him.

Selections:
Cheltenham 2:35, DIAMOND HARRY, 2pts win at 4/1 (Bet365 best odds guaranteed)
Doncaster 2:50, WAYWARD PRINCE, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Bet365 best odds guaranteed)

These are my early wagers and there could well be additional wagers later on.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Waiting for the weekend

2012-01-24T11:30:00.001Z

The 425th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, and there is just an uninspiring meeting over the jumps at Leicester, plus a couple of All-Weather meetings at Kempton and Southwell.

One from my alert list for the 2010-11 jumps season – CESIUM – runs over hurdles at Leicester in the 2:05, and he could be interesting. Today's trip and going should suit him and I thought he had the potential to be a lot better than OR94 as a chaser, so off todays hurdle rating today of OR86 he could well build on his LTO 2nd at Southwell last week. Later, in the chase at 3:40, RATE OF KNOTS reappears. I was on him LTO at Plumpton when he had the race at his mercy as every other horse of merit had already fallen – unfortunately, he chose to fall at the fence in front of the stands before the final circuit of the Sussex National. I've not been able to have a good look at the form as I write this, so I'll be having a better look when I get the time after noon today. CESIUM is 5/1 (William Hill) and RATE OF KNOTS is 15/2 (Bet365) and 7/1 Betfred & Totesport) as I write, and I do like the look of the both of them. If I am going to make a firm selection of either (or both) then I will post them on my monitoring websites at Betting League and Tip Exchange.

Looking towards the weekend, we have a great day's racing in prospect on Saturday. It seems to be a great shame nowadays that nearly all the best racing is on a Saturday afternoon as you can end up with potentially 4 or 5 wagers that you want to place after a week of nothing. Personally, I think it makes life for the punter very difficult as you can end up having wagers on mid-week racing that you would normally avoid (like I did yesterday) and the quality of horse's racing in mid-week isn't reliable enough.

The Argento Chase at Cheltenham looks like being a cracker, and if GRANDS CRUS is as good as he looks then current odds of 9/4 (yesterday's quotes of 5/2 are long gone) may not be unreasonable. But for me, the 11/2 offered by Victor Chandler on DIAMOND HARRY looks very tempting. There should be plenty of scope in the race for a long odds 3rd place in the race so don't ignore those currently at odds of 16/1 or longer.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Antepost joy

2012-01-23T11:40:00.001Z

The 424th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

My blog on Saturday was met with mixed success. My advised wagers both lost, but if you had read the complete narrative then hopefully you'd have been on a winner (or two). I know of one other blogger who did and told me of his success, and that was Glenn at gstarfrankels.blogspot.com who was on VIOLIN DAVIS (advised at 11/2) who won the mares hurdle at Ascot, and ALDERTUNE (SP of 8/1, tho' was at 12/1 for most of the morning) who was 2nd at Wincanton. I narrowed that race down to 3 horses, and 2 of those 3 filled the 1st two places with Zarrafakt winning at 4/1. I also narrowed the feature race at Ascot, the Victor Chandler Chase, down to 2 but plumped for the wrong one in Al Ferof, as Somersby won well at an SP of 9/2.

However, that result was great news for those who received my antepost advice which I sent out ONLY to those readers who had paid a donation to the blog from profits made from my advice. As I say at the bottom of each blog, those who contribute will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information sent out free of charge. In the first supplementary posting sent out on Saturday 14th January I wrote "SOMERSBY is entered for the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot on 21st January, and he was 2nd (beaten a short-head) in that race last year. I reckon he has an excellent chance of winning the race next week and, if he does, then his odds for the Ryanair will shorten considerably". On the basis of that, I advised a 1pt eachway wager on SOMERSBY at 16/1 for the Ryanair. Well, win he did and as of this morning SOMERSBY is 7/1 for the Ryanair – job done. Followers now have the choice of holding-on to the wager and letting it run, or laying-off for a risk free wager.

I also advised another antepost wager in my email of 14th January and I am quietly confident it could be a rock solid wager based on results over weekend. Depending on the weather forecast for this week, there could be a further antepost email to be sent out this evening concerning this Saturday's racing.

There is no horseracing selection today.

As an aside, I made a decision, call it a New Year's Resolution, not to wager using Betfair in 2012. All my wagers are now being placed thru' traditional bookmakers and so far I am making more profit that I would have done if using Betfair. Why? Well, I have a habit of laying-off in-running to protect my stake when using Betfair and that policy seriously affects my profit margins from winning wagers. It is a safety first strategy as I tend to have more individual wagers when using Betfair, however the increase in turnover does not result in an increase in profit. That's the way I'm doing things at the moment, and its working for me.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Super Saturday for Paul Nicholls

2012-01-21T08:21:00.000Z

The 423rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Today we have what looks to be a cracking days racing over the jumps with top-class meetings at Ascot and Haydock, plus another at Wincanton.
At Ascot, I like the look of the mares hurdle at 2:05 as the market is made by the fav Kentford Grey Lady who looked very impressive when winning LTO. Ordinarily, I would go for the fav but the fact that VIOLIN DAVIS who was 3rd that day is returning for a rematch looks interesting. This race is quite likely to be a severe test of stamina with Kaffie likely to make the pace strong thru’out. I can’t have the Irish challenger Our Girl Salley as I reckon the going will not be soft enough for her, and she’s trying 3-mile for the first time. VIOLIN DAVIS at 11/2 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power) looks a fair wager, as I’d be happy with 3/1.

The handicap hurdle at 2:35 was a race in which I was hoping to see BOBBY EWING return to the track. Look him up, his form suggests his OR139 hurdle rating is ludicrously low and I can see this horse winning a top hurdle handicap on his return. However, he misses this race and so I have to look elsewhere, and CICERON who won LTO looks the best value at 11/2. Alan King’s Smad Place looks over-rated at OR144 (I’d have him about 7lb less) and A Bridge Too Far has already been shown lacking at this step-up in trip wont help. Both Joseph Lister and Shoreacres want further than 2m3f, and I can’t really see Torpichen (also trained by Alan King) being involved off OR142, and Royal Charm is on a recovery mission in this. Going right-handed could well help Pateese show improved form, but again his mark of OR138 looks a tad high and the going is also possibly too lively for him. CICERON won LTO in a very fast time beating a well-handicapped rival into 2nd and has only been raised 7lb to OR136. Considering he won at Taunton off OR135 last February, this is well within his grasp and he should be less than 3/1 for this.

The Victor Chandler Chase revolves around Al Ferof who, if he’s as good as Paul Nicholls reckons, will win this. Last March, he won what looks to have been a very strong Supreme Novices Hurdle and if it comes to a test of speed after the final fence then he’ll take some beating. However, both Al Ferof and Finian’s Rainbow are up against half-a-dozen high class chasers and any flaws in their jumping ability at speed will be exposed. As such, I cannot have Finian’s Rainbow whose jumping has never been convincing and was fortunate to be 2nd in what looks to have been a sub-standard Arkle last March. SOMERSBY is the highest rated horse in the race by 4lbs and is game and consistent. He will either relish this drop in trip from the 3-mile of the King George (was well there till after 4-out) or he may find things happening too quickly. Wishful Thinking has never looked a natural 2-mile chaser. As for Gauvain, all his best form is usually in the autumn, and he was stuffed in this race last season. He has been made the Pricewise selection so the 8/1 has gone and he’s best-priced at 6/1 generally now. You cannot really take the chances of the other runners seriously as they are well below the standard required to win. SOMERSBY at 11/2 is worthy of a small wager and I’d be very happy if he could win, but I reckon he’ll be seen at his best in the Ryanair at the Festival. As such, I’m strongly tempted by the 100/30 on AL FEROF (William Hill).

Ascot’s card is tremendous and the 3:45 is another exciting race. I could easily name half the field as having realistic chances and with 15 going to post, so only 3 places available, it is too tight a heat; altho’ SA SUFFIT is a horse who looks well handicapped and if the going is softer than advertised he could go well. The 2-mile trip was too short for his LTO even so he was bang there at the finish, and before that he had no chance against Always Right at Kelso over 3-mile on 4th December. He may not have the class to win this but at 14/1 (so long as the going is soft) he is a solid eachway chance.

Unfortunately for Haydock who hold the Peter Marsh Chase, the going there is heavy, and I can see there being more than a few non-runners. I never like betting on heavy going so I’m giving the meeting a miss.

Wincanton has better going, and the class 3 chase at 2:10 could be an interesting opening for ALDERTUNE. Only 3 of the 13 runners are aged under 10yo, so they are all in the main well-exposed and holding no secrets from the handicapper. As such, I reckon the winner will come from one of the other 3 of ALDERTUNE, Zarrafakt and Diamond Brook. I think this 3m1f trip will be too much for Zarrafakt who is probably best at 2m6f. Diamond Brook looks one-paced at this sort of trip and he needs to show improvement. As for ALDERTUNE, he was well thought of as a hurdler by Nicholls and he really should have won more races (has come 2nd 6 times in 15 starts). His form has worked out well this season, especially his close 4th in the Southern National to Giles Cross. LTO he hated the heavy going, but he’s been well rested since then with a 7 week break, and he can improve enough to take this race at rewarding odds.

Selections:
Ascot 2:35, CICERON, 1pt win @ 11/2 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 3:10, AL FEROF, 1pt win @ 100/30 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
These are my early wagers, tho’ depending on how the ground is, there could well be an additional wagers on both SA SUFFIT (14/1 with Paddy Power, BOG) and ALDERTUNE (12/1 with Corals).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Problems with internet

2012-01-19T10:13:00.001Z

The 422nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I've not been able to post blogs this week as I'm having problems getting onto the internet.

Unfortunately for regular readers of the blog, this is not going to be a short-term problem unless O2 erect a new mast within a hundred yards of my workplace. I cannot seem to work it out as there are 2 masts (both O2) within a quarter of a mile of me, but reception is sporadic. I still have my old phone (which is T-Mobile/Orange) and that has even worse reception here. What really makes me frustrated is that phone can send emails from my email account, but the new O2 phone wont (or can't).

As such, it looks as tho' I am going to have to revert to a weekend blog (probably Thursday evening, Saturday morning and Sunday evening) until I can get something sorted out.

The syndicate horse Chilworth Lass ran on Monday and I'm not sure what to make of the run. Should I be disappointed? Possibly. Altho' she ran prominently (as she did on her hurdling debut) for much of the race, she dropped-out quicker this time (when the challenge came) after the 3rd last flight. As for the factors that caused may that, the going was in my opinion a lot worse than the official Good-to-Soft. In noted Chilworth Lass was changing her legs almost from the off so she was clearly not enjoying the ground. Even so, not lacking fitness, I did expect her to finish not far behind Specialagent Alfie who she met LTO, but that one left her for dead when he went on with the leading pair from the 3rd-last flight. We need another run in the "Lass" to gain a handicap mark and, at this rate, it won't be much above OR70 which will be something Sheena (the trainer) can work with especially when we find better going.

No selections today.

However, there are a few off my alert list running notably POOLE MASTER in the 1:00 at Lingfield for David Pipe who could be a bit special. At Ludlow, in the 2:10 there is FIDDLEDEDEE who made all when winning LTO and looks very interesting at 7/2 for Jonjo O'Neill as finding proper 3-mile hurdlers can prove lucrative. Finally, at Taunton in the 3:20 we have BALLY LEGEND. Trainer Caroline Keevil has a lot of my respect and she has the ability to keep her horses fit and well and improving. BALLY LEGEND could be called the winner a long way out when he won LTO and altho' up 8lb for that win to OR139, he won't be far away and odds of 15/2 look workable.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Frost no help on an ordinary day

2012-01-14T09:42:00.000Z

The 421st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We have 2 meetings over the jumps today, at Kempton and Warwick, as Wetherby has been lost to the weather (frost).

Kempton hosts the William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle and I must admit that I have never been a huge fan of these cavalry charge handicap hurdles. Finding the winner seems to be about finding a horse who has been completely overlooked by everyone other than connections up till the morning of the race and then joining in on the gamble, or finding a horse best suited by the hurly-burly of these huge fields and hoping to sneak a long-odds place. I did the latter last year with ZANIR who was 4th at 16/1, and the horse comes here again on the same rating of OR134 but with a new trainer, having left Tom George. This sort of race is what Zanir relishes but I cannot say that his rider, 3lb claimer Tom Malloy, is the man for the job to steer him home. Will I eat my words? I think DECOY has a helluva chance in this race, and looks fairly treated by the market at 8/1 (William Hill) and you also cannot ignore Featherbed Lane at 11/1 (William Hill).

Warwick has some more interesting racing. The novice chase at 1:25 over 3-mile is intriguing. I’m not sure about Court Victory as he may “bounce”, and this trip may well find out Frascati Park. No such worries with Alfie Spinner who is 7/2 (Paddy Power), but I also think COURT RED HANDED is under-rated at OR129. He didn’t handle the heavy going LTO but, prior to that, his performances suggest he’s a 135+ horse. As such, for me odds of 10/1 look interesting even if he’s giving away 3lb here to Alfie Spinner. The novice hurdle at 3:05 is very interesting and we should see an encounter worth watching when Highland Lodge meets Cotton Mill. Finally, I was going to go for Fortification in the “Classic” chase at 3:40, but he’s a non-runner. As such, I can’t see Sona Sasta staying this trip, and it leaves the way open for NEPTUNE EQUESTER at 13/2 (William Hill).

Selections:
Warwick 3:40, NEPTUNE EQUESTER, 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Raise a glass to an old friend

2012-01-13T11:00:00.001Z

The 420th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I've not posted a blog for a couple of days as I received the very sad news on Wednesday morning that a very dear friend of mine who I'd known for nearly 20 years had died aged just 51. It really upset me for a number of reason, not least because such an incident caused me to question my own life and mortality as my friend Grahatm was the first person of my own generation to die. It was no age at which to go, and Graham was 7 months younger than me, but at least I know he died having just come off the pitch fresh from a game of football and amongst friends. I'll raise a glass to him.

Horseracing this coming weekend looks fairly ordinary. First tho' I'd like to advise readers to take note of WAYWARD PRINCE who I reckon could be worth a wager NTO. He was unable to get into contention in the Hennessey, but he ran good race in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day to be 4th and had had the good fortune to be dropped 4lb by the handicapper. He could well take advantage of his revised handicap rating soon.

Today, there are jumps meetings at Huntingdon and Musselburgh. For a Friday, it is disappointing fare and the only horse that catches my eye is Bohemian Rock in the 2:50 at Huntingdon. He won at Towcester on 15th December over 2-mile, but didn't follow-up on Boxing Day at the same course. That was over 2m3½f and while I'm not sure that the trip contributed to his defeat that day, it was probably responsible for the distance he was beaten. Today's trip is 2m & ½f and that should be in his favour, as will going right-handed. I cannot recommend him as a firm wager, but he may be interesting for a small punt if you can get 4/1 or longer.

The meeting at Musselburgh is more interesting, especially the Kilmany Cup Chase over 3-mile at 3:10. The obvious one to go for is the top-weight Key Cutter following his LTO win, and trainer Paul Webber makes a rare trip north of the border. However, he'll need to give 18lb to ROSSINI'S DANCER who is a course winner and has also won over 2m7f at Kelso. Sue Bradburne's 7yo still has time on his side to find further improvement and, given that most of these are well exposed, he looks value at 6/1 for this.

For those who have made donations to the blog over the past 12 months, I will be sending out an email with an antepost advice for the Cheltenham Festival. I'm hoping to get it out this evening so that you are able to take advantage on Saturday morning. The point with antepost wagers is to endeavour to obtain odds that are significantly greater than what you might expect on the day of the race about your selection. At that point you then have a choice to either "let it ride" or to lay-off your stake on the exchanges and have a risk-free wager on the selection, or to hedge your bet by wagering on another in the race.

I read a comment in this week's "Weekender" column by Tom Segal (Pricewise) that I don't agree with. He writes "the formbook always gets turned on its head at every Cheltenham and this year will be no different". Sorry, I cannot agree with that statement at all as I find the form at Cheltenham is usually solid – the hard part is sorting the wheat from the chaff!

Hopefully, there will be a fuller blog tomorrow, but the racing looks ordinary and uninspiring.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Don't Push It retired

2012-01-10T10:49:00.001Z

The 419th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selection yesterday for the blog, but my appraisal of the 2:10 at Taunton – a 2m7f handicap chase – wasn't far off the mark.

As I wrote, I fully expected the front 2 in the market; Rangitoto (SP 5/2) and Master Fiddle (SP 6/4), to be set a searching task by others in the race who may not have the raw ability, but had solid chasing experience – and so it proved. Rangitoto was the first to crack, falling when under pressure at the 12th fence, and Master Fiddle blundered badly at the next – a mistake from which he could not recover. That left the couple I had highlighted on this blog, Vino Griego and Time For Spring disputing the lead along with eventual winner Made In Time. I overlooked Made In Time as he'd lost his rider in his 2 previous races, the first of which was in the same race that Master Fiddle had unseated, back on 26th November. His next start was in the same race that Time For Spring came 2nd in on 21st December. That day he was made the 9/4 fav when in-receipt of 1lb from Time For Spring (SP 3/1), but lost his rider at just the 3rd fence. Time for Spring was raised 5lb for that promising run, which was a tad harsh in my opinion considering he didn't win and, as such, Made In Time met Time For Spring on 5lb better terms yesterday. Given the benefit of this hindsight, it seems reasonable to think that Time for Spring should not have been sent off at an SP of 8/1 as, so long as his jumping held up, with the 5lb pull he had definite prospects prior to the race of beating Time For Spring (SP 6/1). Made In Time is relatively unexposed as a chaser and this performance suggests that a fair bit of improvement could still be to come from this progressive chaser.

One of the more recent developments is the lack of confidence behind Paul Nicholls stable runners during weekdays. Put it this way, when I was in my local betting shop last Friday, one of the dishevelled regulars came out with the statement "don't bet on Nicholls runners on weekdays" – and this bloke looked like he'd have trouble pulling-up his trousers after having a dump! As they say about the stock market, when taxi drivers start telling you to buy, it's time to sell, and I reckon the same could be said about Paul Nicholls. Yes, all 4 he sent to the races yesterday were beaten and none started at longer than 4/1, but I'd say it could pay to be a bit less circumspect about his runners in the next 8 or 9 weeks in the run-up to the Festival.

Thinking of the Festival, it's time to start preparing an antepost portfolio, or at least considering one. For the past 5 years I've put together wagers of 3 or 4 horses in mainly the championship races in the hope of making a killing, but one of my selections has always let me down leaving me with just the place-odds scraps. With surprise results unlikely to happen in either the Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup, World Hurdle or Champion Chase (it would not surprise me to see all 4 champions win again), I'm going to be looking at the Ryanair and the 3 novice chase championship races (Arkle, Jewson, RSA) for my speculative "yankee".

There is a huge amount of decent reading material available on horseracing blogs on the web, so much that I found a really interesting series of articles on professional gamblers (I enjoyed reading about Clive Holt) which I found via a link on twitter – but now I don't know where to find it again. If you posted the links on twitter, or you know who did, either send me the link again via twitter on @wayward_lad or post the link in my comments box. These professional gambler articles are well worth reading.

Nothing much doing today in the racing world. There is just the one horse from my alert list running; Valid Point at Leicester in the 3:10, which is a 2m7f & 110 yards novice chase with just 4 runners. He's having his chasing debut this afternoon, tho' his trainer Jim Old is best with his staying hurdlers. However, he has run several times this season over hurdles so comes here race-fit, and he'll stay this trip with ease. I feel for trainers like Jim Old as he has not lost the ability to prepare a decent horse, indeed he prepared Collier Bay to win the Champion Hurdle in 1996. He doesn't have many runners these days but, even so, pay attention when he does. VALID POINT is currently 10/1 with Vic Chandler and Bet65 and while Baile Anrai is a worthy favourite, I wouldn't have him as an "evens" chance. With both Soir Destruval (100/30) and Larks Lad (4/1) still having it to prove over fences despite having the benefit of chasing experience, I'd have VALID POINT more like 4/1 (on the basis that he's race-fit and will stay the trip) with Baile Anrai at 7/4.

No selection today, but I'll be watching this race with interest.

I've also heard the news that Grand National winner Don't Push It has been retired. He ran a great races both in 2010 when he won and last April when he was 3rd.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Qhilimar almost does it at 22/1

2012-01-09T11:46:00.002Z

The 418th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

It was a disappointing performance from the blog selection on Saturday.
I hoped that PASCO would be good enough to win his race as he's run
consistently well at this sort of trip over the past couple of seasons
(without winning) but it was not to be. The race winner was Consigliere,
a horse that I have followed since he won a decent handicap chase at
Newbury over that tracks odd 2m1f trip off OR135. He had been racing
well without winning at ratings of OR145+ so having slipped top OR136 he
was worthy of some interest. What put me off him was that he's never
looked like staying trips beyond 2m3f well enough to win, so perhaps on
Saturday he found himself in a weak race on going that he enjoyed
(predominantly soft). He is not a horse that I would want to be on again
at this sort of trip once he's been re-rated as we'll probably see him
next at the Cheltenham Festival in a handicap over 2m5f. He will run
well there as he appreciates the track, but the going will be too quick
for him, most likely.

My other selection GALLOX BRIDGE was fading when falling and perhaps he ran a bit too free. I'll keep him on my alert list for another chance NTO.

I gave a big plug on Saturday's blog for QHILIMAR in the feature race at
Sandown as he was a C&D winner who would enjoy the going. I had no idea that he'd set the pace as I expected him to sit just behind the leaders,
nor did I expect his odds to drift from 18/1 in the morning to an SP of
22/1. As I wrote in my blog, I thought he was a 7/1 chance and therefore
he held a decent chance of being placed in what looked a competitive
race. To be fair, a couple of the market leaders didn't perform well,
but he should never have gone off at 22/1 and in hindsight I should have
had a point eachway on him rather than the two win wagers on the other
selection.

We have a half decent meeting for a Monday at Taunton, with what looks
to be an attractive race at 2:10. The market is headed by Nicky
Henderson's Master Fiddle @ 7/4 , with Paul Nicholls' Rangitoto a
short-priced 2nd-fav @9/4; but I feel that Vino Griego @ 11/2 and Time
For Spring @ 15/2 can give this pair a race. Rangitoto wasn't pushed
when he won his debut chase, but he wasn't that impressive either.
Master Fiddle unseated in his debut chase so we don't really know how
good he is and his odds are based around his trainer's reputation and
record at this time of year. Vino Griego ran a cracker LTO when 2nd at
Sandown to The Minack and if he runs a similar bold race from the front
today he will put the jumping ability of the market leaders under test.
However, I was on TIME FOR SPRING when he ran LTO, and he was perhaps a little unlucky not to win as perhaps he should have been brought with his challenge a little earlier. He has Sam Waley-Cohen in the saddle and his 5lb claim will be useful and could make all the difference in this race. Obviously, both Rangitoto and Master Fiddle could be rated much higher than OR131 and OR122 respectively at the end of this jumps season, so I'm not advising a firm wager; but at 7/1 generally (as I write, the earlier 15/2 has now gone) TIME FOR SPRING is worth a small
win wager.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that
readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful
wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a
contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those
that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Pasco to hurdle to victory

2012-01-07T10:32:00.000Z

The 417th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I always find it interesting, having appraised the Saturday entries on a Thursday evening, just where the horses end up running – if they run at all. We have 3 interesting meetings today at Sandown, Wincanton and Newcastle, and hopefully by the end of this blog I am going to have a wager as I have not posted one since Boxing Day.

At Sandown, if the opening mares hurdle does not go to KAFFIE then something must have gone amiss. The soft going will really suit this front-running mare and if she does not win then she will only have herself to blame. Kells Belle and The Strawberry One both want going quicker than soft to show their best, and the others are outclassed and exposed. You can still get 7/4 in KAFFIE and that looks good to me as I would have her at slight odds-on. In the 2:05, I was going to go with top-weight Tanks For That who meets Rileyev on 5lb better terms than LTO and he looked to have the beating of that horse prior to falling in the race. It is a tight race tho and I am also taken with HOLD FAST who comes here (rather than Wincanton) and has a 12lb pull with Rileyev on their last meeting. Too close to call.
The Tolworth Hurdle looks tricky and, if pushed, I would go for PROSPECT WELLS for whom odds of 7/4 (Blue Square) could seem very generous later on.
For the feature race at 3:10, I cannot believe that QHILIMAR is 18/1 (William Hill). He is a C&D winner who has won on soft going, and while outclassed in the Hennessey off OR142, he races today off OR137 and he is capable of winning off this mark. He had no sort of race LTO on heavy going when unseating and he should enjoy the strong pace that will be set today which will be nothing like that he had to cope with in the Hennessey. I would have him at 7/1 for this race, maybe even shorter.
In the last race on the card we see Havingotascoobydo who I hoped would be chasing over 2m4f, but he runs in this 2-mile hurdle instead. I cannot have a wager on him in this, but he may well be worth a punt.

At Wincanton, as per yesterdays comments, in the opener REDBRIDGE REBEL for Phi Hobbs is worth a “place-only” wager. In the 2:50, PASCO is Paul Nicholls only runner at Wincanton and he could finally do the biz. He has nothing to fear in this race and could end his long losing run of 10 races back to Feb ’09. He should stay this trip and appreciate the going, as such 13/2 (Vic Chandler) looks worthwhile. In the 3:25, GALLOX BRIDGE looks an exciting handicap prospect and he looks thrown-in here off OR120 and Michael Byrne is worth every pound of his 5lb claim. Odds of 6/1 look very generous as I’d have him a lot shorter than that.

The only horse I’ll be watching (wagering?) today at Newcastle is in the last race, the bumper, and it’s MADAME BLAVATSKY who should prove too good for these.

Selections:
Wincanton 2:50, PASCO, 1pt win @ 13/2 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 3:35, GALLOX BRIDGE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

I think QHILIMAR is well worth an eachway wager, but this is a tough race and there may be one or two that are too good for him – or he may win!

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Weekend whispers

2012-01-06T11:30:00.001Z

The 416th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections yesterday, tho' in hindsight I missed a winner in GOING
WRONG, my only horse alert runner of the day.

My opinion before the race was that 2-mile was too short, and it
certainly looked that way 3-out when it looked as tho' he'd only stay-on
for 2nd, but the odds-on fav Realt Mor had run himself ragged early on
disputing the lead with the 8/1 chance Laterly, and he faltered on the
run-in allowing GOING WRONG to take up the lead close home and win at
11/4. He went into the race with a rating of OR130, but I've always felt
GOING WRONG was capable of being much better than that, and this race
shows that "class" can prevail when a horse meets lesser opposition on
unsuitable conditions. We won't see the best of GOING WRONG until he
tries a trip in excess of 2m4f and he remains firmly on my alert list as
one to follow.

Today, the Chepstow meeting has already been cancelled due to a
waterlogged course, and the remaining meeting at Bangor is a
hurdles-only meeting as the chase course is un-raceable. I'm giving the
meeting, and the day, a miss.

As such, I'll take a look at Saturday's racing and we have 3 meetings
planned at Sandown, Wincanton, and Newcastle.

Looking at the race programme, there's not much to excite the punter but
it's better jump-racing that we've seen all this week, so we'd best make
the most of it. This time of year is very important with regards to the
Cheltenham Festival as most winning horse at that Festival will have
their last race in the period between Christmas Day and Valentine's Day
(14th Feb) and, as most punters know, the majority of race winners at
the Festival won last-time-out (LTO). So, as with Going Wrong yesterday,
pay particular attention to all race winners and try to put yourself in
the trainer's mind to see if there is the potential for a Festival
winner and antepost touch.

At Sandown tomorrow, pay attention to whatever Paul Nicholls sends to
the track. He has 4 entries (as I write this): Hold Fast, Prospect
Wells, Neptune Collonges, and The Knoxs. I'm not sure about Hold Fast,
but Prospect Wells should win the Tolworth Hurdle. Neptune Collonges is
probably being prepared for the Gold Cup and a pace-setting role for
stablemate Kauto Star. The Knoxs is on a very lenient handicap mark of
OR139 for the 3-mile class 2 chase at 3:10 if his jumping holds
together.

Nicholls runners also should be noted at Wincanton where he has 7
entries: Hold Fast has an entry along with Pasco in the 2:50, and I like
Pasco in this race, altho' the presence of HAVINGOTASCOOBYDOO could
upset Nicholl's plans. Martin Keighley's horse has a handful of entries
this weekend (hurdles and chases) and he should be noted wherever he
runs. Nicholls won the novice chase last season with The Minack and he
has 2 entries (at time of writing); Doeslessthanme and Garton King.

Other interesting entries at Sandown are: David Pipe's Kazlian (1:35);
Cottage Acre (2:05) who is Tom George's only entry here; Phil Hobbs
Colour Squadron (2:35 who could push Prospect Wells; and Charlie
Longsdon's Qhilimar (3:10).

At Wincanton, Phil Hobbs has 3 of his 6 course entries in the opening
novice hurdle (a race he's targeted in the past). Tim Vaughan has a
great strike-rate at Wincanton, so pay attention to which of his 6
entries take part. Nicky Henderson has 6 entries in the 2m5f novice
chase at 4:00, of which 3 unseated their riders LTO.

I'm not really a fan of Newcastle as it always seems to be a right slog
on soft/heavy going there, but it may be worth noting that David Pipe
has a couple of entries here and it's a helluva long way to travel from
Wellington on the Somerset/Devon border. I'm not follower of "bumper"
races, but the one at Newcastle that close the meeting has a couple of
interesting entries, notably Karen McLintock's Madame Blavatsy, and
Keith Reveley's Oaklands Elise.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that
readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful
wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a
contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those
that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Murphy pulling a flanker?

2012-01-05T10:31:00.002Z

The 415th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No blog yesterday, and so no selections.

It was a busy morning at the office so no time to spend on studying the form in depth. I had a few runners from my alert list and they were Heather Royal (won @ 4/9) Kudu Country (2nd beaten a short-head @ 6/4) and Dusky Bob (2nd @ 16/1).

In hindsight, it would have been a good, profitable blog yesterday.

Heather Royal managed to scrape home at odds-on; and I had a personal wager on KUDU COUNTRY at 9/4 in the morning. I knew that should it come down to a straight speed test in the run-in that the race-fav Eradicate would prevail as he was the better hurdler (by about 20lbs), but I hoped that the jumping ability of KUDU COUNTRY would be enough to win him the race. As it happened it nearly did as Eradicate was floundering under pressure and I would not want to support him on a track with stiffer fences than Southwell.

As for Dusky Bob, I could not understand why he was 20/1 in the morning and started with an SP of 16/1. Readers may remember that I had a fortunate winner in Monsieur Jourdain on 23rd Nov when Dusky Bob fell at the final fence when about to gain the upper hand. That race was over 2m6f and suggested to me that his stamina limit is probably 2m5f and he empties out quickly when going beyond that, hence it was no surprise to me that he failed miserably over 3-mile when last seen on the track at Ascot on 17th December. Yesterday, he was dropped in trip to an extended 2m5f and he ran much more up to his best form. The horse is consistent and handles going from "good" thru' to "soft" and, at trips up to 2m5f, in this grade he should always be considered.

Just the one horse on my alert list runs today, GOING WRONG at Sedgefield in the 2m chase at 1:10. Now, this horse needs 2m4f at least, probably 2m6f, and he was most fortunate LTO when benefitting from the fall of the runaway leader. Much as I like the horse, I cannot help but think that Ferdy Murphy is pulling a flanker here with the horse. In running it, he's keeping the horse race-fit but, as it's a race that it is most unlikely to run well in let alone win, he is protecting it's handicap mark. In my opinion, he's aiming this horse at one of the Cheltenham Festival handicaps as this horse is well handicapped over both hurdles and fences at trips beyond 2m5f.

I received a comment from "The Horseman" regarding my latest blog. I cannot shed any new light on the situation regarding the demise of the Becher Brook blog or it's author. It was an unfortunate occurrence when someone succumbed to temptation and it was a lesson that we are all capable of being "groomed" on the internet by potential fraudsters. Had I met someone down the betting shop who said they had a horse they were syndicating and would I give them £120 for a 2½% share and £35 a month for its keep, I would have sent them away with a flea in their ear. As the offer came via the internet from someone who I considered a twitter "friend", then more fool me for dropping my guard.

There are no guarantee's in this life and we should all be questioning who we trust and who we should not. I for one would now not send hundred's of pounds to a blogger who says I can have their tips for 12 months at a discount if I pay in advance. When I pay for information, I pay on a daily weekly or monthly basis and always start with the minimum period first.

I don't charge for my advice on this blog at all, and I only ask for a contribution from any successful wagers readers of this blog may have on the basis of what they have read here - much in the way most people leave a tip when they pay the bill at the end of a good meal.

Despite there being 3 jumps meetings today, I can't find a decent wager today so my money is staying in my pocket.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

A period of reflection

2012-01-03T13:28:00.002Z

The 414th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday as I was at Plumpton watching
syndicate horse CHILWORTH LASS (I'm a shareholder) on her hurdling
debut.

I thought she ran a cracker on going (heavy) that was a lot worse than
she wants. She led for most of the race only succumbing to a challenge
on the approach to the 2nd-last flight. For a brief moment I thought she
may hold-on to 3rd spot and provide me with a decent return on my
eachway wager at 33/1, but it was not to be. Realistically, she had no
chance with the odds-on winner Balder Success, who looks half-decent;
nor with the runner-up Jodawes. The 3rd horse home Specialagent Alfie
had been dropped in trip from 2m4f and (benefitting from race fitness)
he outstayed Chilworth Lass on this going, as did the 4th home Excelsior
Academy. But, all-in-all, it was an encouraging run and on better going
she should prove capable of winning in a class 5 handicap.

By coincidence, at Folkestone later in the afternoon, the other horse
that had been "offered" by he-who-shall-not-be-named (prior to Chilworth
Lass being syndicated) also ran for the 1st time since that incident.

KING OF CASTILE had subsequently been purchased by trainer Jim Best of
Lewes, apparently carrying an injury. Well, he showed none of that
yesterday making nearly all to romp home a 16-length winner at 3/1. He
was helped having come into the race fresh from a 6-month break and also
benefitting from a drop in the handicap to a rating of OR95. I should
have had the horse on my alert list as he clearly possesses some ability
and it has to be classed as a missed opportunity, especially as Jim Best
really knows how to prepare a horse for a coup and I expect connections
recouped their purchase price - and more - yesterday.

My biggest wager of the day was in the Sussex National on Rate Of Knots
and my immediate thought when the last of the market leaders fell
mid-race was that all he had to do to win was stand up - and he failed
to do that with an awful jump at the fence in front of the Plumpton
stands. At times like that I wished I were at home, as then I could have
lumped onto Double Dizzy. He may only have one gear, but he is a
resolute galloper who knows how to jump a fence and as he led those who
still stood out onto the final circuit there could only be one winner.

Today's high winds have resulted in the abandonment of the meeting at
Ayr. There is little prospect of any worthwhile wagering opportunities
till Saturday, so I'm going thru' my alert list and giving it a good
prune.

I always give a horse the benefit of at least one run if it makes it
onto my personal alert list, after that it really needs to show
something decent. One that did not make the cut yesterday evening was
Ghizao who has cost me dearly since I managed to win on him a couple of
times in the autumn of 2010. It hurts when you see a horse which has
some talent, not fulfil its potential; and I'm sure that Paul Nicholls
will have another go with the horse. I expect he'll have a wind-op
sometime in the next few weeks followed by a re-appearance hopefully on
a flat track. He ran a cracker when chasing home Finians Rainbow at
Aintree last April and he could well show his best if he returns there
again this coming April.

I've just noticed from my racing calendar that there is a 4-week break
between the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree National meetings (in my
youth it was just 2-weeks) and while that will allow plenty of horses to
race at both meetings, having the Grand National run on April 14th is
not good for that race. When I was growing up in the 1960's, 70's &
80's, the National was run on the last Saturday in March, which would be
the Saturday after the Lincoln handicap was run. Pushing the National
meeting later in the calendar may result in more horses competing in the
other championship races but, for the National itself, it is not a good
idea. It also makes it near impossible for a horse to compete in 2 (or
more) of the major staying chases held at the end of the jumps season
with the Scottish National being run on Saturday 21st April (just a week
after the Grand National), the Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown being run on
the 28th April, and the Irish National being run on Easter weekend (the
weekend before the National). There are not enough top-class staying
chasers to go around, and the other races (notably the Sandown race) are
starting to go into terminal decline.

The racing calendar needs proper organisation, otherwise racing is in
danger of killing the goose that lays the golden egg.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that
readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful
wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a
contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those
that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Chilworth Lass runs at Plumpton

2012-01-02T10:40:00.000Z

The 413th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

The start of a new year and I’m off to Plumpton.
Today, being part of the White diamond Racing Partnership, I’ll be watching our horse CHILWORTH LASS having her first run over hurdles in the opening race.
The going at Plumpton is heavy (soft in places) and that could be tough on the little mare. She is a game and resilient horse tho’, judging by her performances on the all-weather, and she could well handle the ground as her half-bro’ won on very soft going at Saint-Cloud in France over 1m2½f as a 4yo. Her dam’s half-sister also acted on soft going.
It will be a tough “ask” today as Alan King’s Balder Success could be a decent horse based on his sole run – and win – in France. Gary Moore’s Jodawes also looks a capable novice hurdler and comes here with experience. However, the rest of this field look nothing special at all, and the fact that CHILWORTH LASS receives at least 12lb from the others, and 19lb from both Balder Success and Jodawes means that I reckon the current 28/1 is worth a small eachway wager from me on the course.
The next couple of races I reckon I will pass over, but the 2m5f hurdle at 2:15 looks interesting. Most of these look real back-numbers but the latest run from PUR DE SIVOLA, who was a decent horse when with Alan King a few years back, suggests that he may go close in this. He likes to be up with the pace, which is no bad thing on going like today, and he has won on very soft going over 2m4f on hurdles at Taunton. For me, 14/1 looks too long and I’d have him at half those odds considering he’s 49lb below his peak NH rating of OR138.
The Sussex National at 2:45 will be a gruelling race, and so stamina will be the most important requirement. RATE OF KNOTS has won twice (from 3 starts ) on heavy going and can also stay this extreme trip (3rd in Kent National over 3m7f at Folkestone, btn 3-lengths). He is my selection in this race.
After that, if I’m still warm enough to stand up, then I’ll likely have a punt on GORING TWO in the 3:20 before calling it a day. GORING TWO is trained just up the road from Plumpton at Jevington near Eastbourne and Anna Newton-Smith does well with her runners at local tracks like Plumpton.

All the best to my readers, and let’s make 2012 a profitable year.

Kauto Star the Magnificent

2011-12-27T12:06:00.000Z

The 412th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Kauto the Magnificent!
In all my 50-odd years, I have never seen a horse with as much ability, bravery, resolution, and gameness all wrapped-up in one body. And I probably never will again. We will never be able to compare the relative abilities of Arkle in the 1060’s with Kauto Star today, but if you consider long-term resilience then there is no comparison. Alongside Kauto Star, a huge (and I mean huge) amount of credit has to be given to Paul Nicholls who has managed to keep the horse sound for so many years enabling Kauto Star to compete at the highest level for 7 seasons. Most horses suffer some sort of injury which curtails their career.
I rated Long Run at 168 (thru’ Nacarat in 4th) when winning the previous running of the King George, and at 170 (thru’ What A Friend in 4th) when winning the Gold Cup. Yesterday, I reckon he ran a career best of 172 and that puts Kauto Star on 173 (Racing Post have rated Kauto at 182). My ratings also put Captain Chris on 155 which was the level at which he ran for the most of last season and perhaps that is his true level of ability. I had a personal wager on Somersby at 23.0 on Betfair and laid-off at 8.0 just after the 4rd last fence when he was travelling well as any (he actually went below 5.00 in-running) but there his stamina gave out. So, Henrietta Knight was right and he is a 2½ miler at most. If Kauto can maintain this level of form then he is the one to beat in the Gold Cup no doubt but, if anything, this race showed that replacing Waley-Cohen with Barry Geraghty on Long Run might conjure up an improved performance there.
I had a decent day yesterday and placed a “yankee” based on my shorter-priced selections of Bishophill Jack (won @ 11/4), Wide Reveiver (won @ 9/4), Diereadh Re (won @ 13/8) and Shaking Hands (3rd@ 9/2). Perhaps I should have included Binocular (won @ 5/4) and of the others mentioned on the blog, Helpston ran a good 2nd (was 20/1 in the morning) but was beaten by the 7lb over-weight he was carrying, and Bless The Wings (15/2) also ran a good 2nd at Kempton.
I was very disappointed with Sarando in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby, and perhaps he is not as good as I once thought. As for my other selection, Pantxoa, he was given an awful ride being held far too far off the pace and altho’ he made ground in the latter stages he had no chance of being involved. He does have ability, but how that will convert into a win is beyond me.
Onto today, and we have the Welsh National at Chepstow which is always a great pointer to the top staying chases in the new year. The heavy going there will suit only a couple of runners and watching today’s race may prove hard going for those who are not accustomed to long-distance staying chases. Le Beau Bai was my early days selection and was 14/1 on 23rd December, but now we know the state of the going he’s just 9/1 at best. The others that will relish today’s conditions are Giles Cross, Carruthers, Blazing Bailey, Galaxy Rock and the 5yo, As De Fer. It takes an exceptional horse to carry more than 11st to win these long-distance chases, and so (based on previous trends) Giles Cross and Le Beau Bai are the obvious candidates to win this. They will be there at the finish but neither have any gears, but Galaxy Rock and As De Fer do as does BLAZING BAILEY who won a tough class 2 handicap chase at Cheltenham last New Years Day with 11st. He won over 3m4f NTO, was outclassed at the Festival when the early pace of his race was too quick, and the going was again too fast for him in the Scottish National and he pulled-up. He’s had just the one run this season when not far behind Carruthers in the Hennessey. This will be his 10th chase and he’s won 3 and been placed 3 times in the other 9 chase races; he’s also won 2 from 3 on heavy. His weight of 11st 5lb will be tough for him, but I can see only a handful completing this extreme test, and he’s likely to be one of them so at 28/1 (Bet365, Corals, Stan James) he is worth a “fun” eachway wager and he’ll be carrying my money.

I’m not making any official selections today and tomorrow I’m off to see relatives for a couple of days so, hopefully, I’ll be back with the blog on New Years Day.

It’s been a great year and I hope that my regular readers will continue to visit and support the blog. For new readers, horseracing is a great spectacle and full of emotion and exhilaration, and (if you take it seriously) you can win a bit as well.

All the best and (borrowing a term from Sir Bruce) “Keep Racing!”

Boxing Day spectacular

2011-12-26T09:30:00.000Z

The 411th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a day we have in store today. Perhaps the most intriguing days racing we’ve had for many a day with reputations to be earned, restored and confirmed.
We have a huge amount of racing with meetings up and down the country so it won’t be possible to focus on it all.
Kempton hosts the day’s feature meeting and what a cracker of a day. The King George VI Chase sees the return of the battle for supremacy of Long Run and Kauto Star. Defending champion Long Run should be the fav for the race but odds of 11/8 are too short for me. I reckon that Long Run rates 170 (not OR182, and certainly not RPR187) and that puts him within striking distance of Diamond Harry if he’s in the form that he won the 2010 Hennessey Gold Cup. Both horses should come on for their run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock won by Kauto Star. As for Kauto, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will maintain the form of his Betfair Chase win but he may need to improve on that run to win today; the reason why is that this renewal looks one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. Captain Chris could well be a 170+ chaser in time, but he’s had an interrupted preparation and as such it is going to be a superlative performance for him to win. I really cannot see Master Minded staying this trip as the pace will be hot from the off with Golan Way almost certainly taking-on Kauto Star for the lead. He’s been called a few names, but Somersby is consistent and he’s also something to prove on his latest run. If he recaptures his best form then he could still be there in with a chance at the 2nd-last. I would make Long Run the 5/2 fav with Kauto Star at 9/2 and DIAMOND HARRY at 6/1 and that makes him the eachway value at 20/1 (Ladbrokes).
On the lead-up to the King George, we have a couple of novice chases which should see GRANDS CRUS winning the Feltham at 2:00, and before that the novice handicap looks very competitive tho’ I do like the chance of BLESS THE WINGS (9/1 with Stan James). Earlier this year, BINOCULAR won the previous Christmas Hurdle and he should do so again, unless Nicholl’s Rock On Ruby is the real-deal. I’d have BINOCULAR at 5/4 for this as he should run 165+ today and that should be good enough.
It’s the last race on the Kempton card that should provide me with a wager, and I’ve been waiting for PANTXOA to step up in trip from 2-mile and this 2m5f should prove his best. He is 9/1 for this with William Hill, quarter-odds to 4-places.
Wetherby has as its feature the Rowland Meyrick Chase at 1:45 and this race is as good as any handicap you’ll see. The fav Always Right will be taken on up front by Midnight Chase and that could be their undoing. Both are exceptional chasers and Always Right could end up the equal of Midnight Chase this season which suggests he’s well-in today. Knockara Beau also looks to be well-handicapped off OR143, but I feel he wants extreme trips of 3m4f+ to show his best. As such, I’m sticking with my Hennessey selection SARANDO who I fell will appreciate today’s easier “soft” going. He’s at 8/1 which is fair, but I’d hope for a little more perhaps 10/1. One that could shake them all up if he continues his improvement is HELPSTON who runs from 7lb out of the handicap and is 20/1, but he’s never looked his best on soft going.
On day’s like this it pays to pick and choose your targets as there will be plenty of value out there and you cannot possibly consider all the racing. The top races will be well-covered by the market, so look for some of the smaller races at the other meetings. Also pay attention to non-runners, as what may be a good price in the morning may not be by race-time; and vice versa. You may think your selection has a fair chance but if the danger is a non-runner suddenly yours is well-in. I was looking at Wincanton’s 1:40 and DIEREADH RE looked huge at 3/1 in the morning papers, but a couple of non-runners means the price has collapsed to 13/8. That’s no good to me, but if you’re having a multiple bet to small stakes for fun, then this is a decent addition. Another is WIDE RECIEVER at Market Rasen in the 1:35.
At Wincanton, SHAKING HANDS runs in the class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 renewing rivalry with Drybrook Bedouin on 2lb better terms. Both will enjoy this trip, tho’ it will suit SHAKING HANDS better, and he can win at useful odds of 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed).
Kim Bailey has won the handicap chase at Huntingdon (12:45) 3 times in recent years, and he’s entered BISHOPHILL JACK a 5yo who won his first chase LTO. That wasn’t great form, but this isn’t that competitive a race, and tho’ odds of 5/2 are skinny he should do the biz.
I’m going to keep looking at today’s racing as there will be plenty of fluctuation in the markets and opportunities will arise. If I spot any, then I will try and post a comment to this blog, but more likely I will advise of the fact on twitter via @wayward_lad.

Selections:
Kempton 3:40, PANTXOA, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wetherby 1:45, SARANDO, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 2:50, SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)

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Boxing Day lookahead

2011-12-22T10:07:00.002Z

The 410th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I followed a couple I wrote about with personal wagers; unfortunately without success.

ALPHA WAY had won his last couple of starts as jockey Felix De Giles had been able to get the horse settled, yesterday tho' he had no such luck and ALPHA WAY ran away with him in the early stages burning-up his energy which was soon spent and he eventually pulled-up. That fast early pace meant the race fell apart for most and another I was interested in, Nosecond Chance, also pulled-up.

My 2nd personal wager was on TIME FOR SPRING who I thought had a great chance when the morning fav Chapolimoss was declared a non-runner. TIME FOR SPRING was brought to challenge the leader at the last fence but failed to take the race by just half-a-length. This was disappointing, as he could well have blown what was a winning rating as he'll probably go up at few pound for this run as LTO winner Battlecry was beaten 12-lengths into 3rd. There is a possibility he may run again before a re-rating (see below).

As luck would have it, the only other race I looked at was the extended 3-mile chase at Ffos Las which saw KAYBEEW from my alert list running. His odds of 5/2 did not represent value and, combined with a significant move for Horsham Lad (from 5/2 in to 15/8) and the David Pipe 4yo Take Over Sivola (from 8/1 in to 4/1), that meant Mohayer - a LTO chase winner over 2m6f - drifted to 10/1 from 5/1.

This is the main reason why I provide a narrative behind my selections on the blog. At respective odds in the morning of 5/2, 5/2 and 5/1; Kaybeew, Horsham Lad and Mohayer were not value. But, by race-time, Mohayer's drift to 10/1 meant he was in eachway wager territory at 5th odds a place. Not only that, but I did write that all those 3 held decent chances and if you had combined all 3 in 6 x 1pt straight-forecasts then you would have been rewarded with a total return of 37.98pts resulting in a 31.98pt profit.

There is a lot to be gained by reading this blog, and sometimes I wish I followed my own comments!

There will be no look at today's racing nor any selections for today as I'm winding-down at the office and I want an "early-dart". Combined with the Christmas break in the racing calendar, I spent this morning on the train to London looking thru' the Boxing Day entries and trying to find pointers to future winners. The good weather should ensure a full day's racing on Boxing Day with plenty of meetings, so here are my early observations.

At Ffos Las, there is an interesting class 3 chase over 2m3½f as well as the class 2 chase over 3m1½f - both will be worth looking at when final declarations are posted-up.

At Huntingdon, the opening novice hurdle could see IMPERIAL CIRCUS run again. I reckon this horse has serious long-term potential. Next, at 12:45 there is a lowly class 5 chase over 3-mile which Kim Bailey has won 3 times with just 5 runners (and he had another placed) in the last 10 years stats. He has just BISHOPHILL JACK entered.

At Kempton, the opening novice hurdle has been won by some decent types over the years, and Nicky Henderson always has a strong entry even tho' he's not won it in the past 10-years. He has 6 entries but, interestingly, Paul Nicholls has just the one, PLENTY POCKET. Henderson has a much better record in the novice handicap chase at 1:25 and you should pay attention to which he chooses to run from his 6 entries. Both the Feltham novice chase, and the Christmas Hurdle are still open to entries. I wrote about the King George yesterday and I would not be scared of opposing Long Run as I reckon he's no more than OR172 at best (from what we've seen to date) so Kauto Star has the ability to beat him and he's also within range of Captain Chris and Diamond Harry. Also, don't write off Somersby for whom supporters (me included) have been crying-out for to try 3-miles. He is a rock solid OR166, 2-miler and while he has no turn-of-foot at that trip, over this 3-mile trip you just never know. The final race on the Kempton card looks a cracking 2m5f handicap hurdle and I'm hoping PANTXOA takes part.

I can't see anything at Market Rasen's meeting, so onto Towcester where the opening 2m6f Beginner's Chase could be worth watching if only for prospective notebook candidates.

Wetherby has the "Rowland Meyrick" class 3 handicap chase over 3m1f at 1:45 and this race looks a cracker. Much will depend on the going (currently soft) but there look to be some well handicapped horse entered such as Sarando (OR149), Knockara Beau (OR143), and Lackamon (OR139). If, as is likely, Midnight chase (OR161) takes part then he will keep the likes of Helpston (OR128) and Lockstown (OR126) out of the handicap "proper".

At Wincanton, there is a class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 over 3m1½f that trainer Alan King has won 3 times from just 4 runners, and he has just the one horse entered, the 10yo Rustarix. This race usually goes to a younger horse tho' and yesterday's runner, the 7yo TIME FOR SPRING has top-weight (will he run?) and David Pipe has recent Exeter 2nd SHAKING HANDS in this. Paul Nicholls has EARTH PLANET representing him.

Take note of Peter Bowen's RUN TO FLY who is entered at just about every meeting on Boxing Day.

That's it for now. If I have time then I will post another blog tomorrow, but more likely I will prepare for the Boxing Day meetings - it could be a monster blog posting.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

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Fwd: Spring is in the air

2011-12-21T11:08:00.001Z

The 409th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I was very disappointed with yesterday's selection PRINCE TOM. Firstly,
his booked jockey Harry Derham was replaced at about 11:30am as he was
declared ill and unfit to ride by Paul Nicholls (trainer of Prince Tom).
His replacement James Cowley is (like Harry Derham) a 7lb claimer, tho'
he's had fewer rides than Derham. Had I known that in the morning, then
I would not have recommended a wager at odds of 3/1. Secondly, despite
the jockey change, the horse ran a lacklustre race. None of the market
leaders in the race was involved at the finish, so perhaps the ground
(soft side of good-to-soft) was the factor.

Overall, not a good day, and I've decided that unless I'm super
confident about a selections chances then I am going to avoid making
selections whose odds (when I post the blog) are at less than 7/2.

Onto today, and we have a couple of meetings at Ffos Las and Ludlow.

The meeting at Ffos Las is on heavy going, and that could make things
tricky there for finding winners. I was going to have an interest in the
3-mile 1f & 110 yard chase at 2:45 as KAYBEEW is on my alert list
following his win LTO, but current odds of 5/2 are silly. Horsham Lad
(5/2) and Mohayer (5/1) are both holding decent chances in this, and you
cannot rule out My Moment (8/1) either.

Ludlow has a few more from my alert list running, with 2 in the novice
chase at 1:00, Nosecond Chance and Alpha Way. I really like both of
these and, on the form-book, I can't split them. Of the pair, given
today's trip of 2m4f, I'd be more inclined to side with ALPHA WAY
(current odds 5/1) over Nosecond Chance (7/2), but I may place a small
reverse forecast wager on the pair.

The other race that has a runner from my alert list is the 2:35, a
3-mile handicap chase. I have just learned that Chapolimoss is a
non-runner and that leaves the way open for TIME FOR SPRING. I made note
of this one when he easily won his debut chase. Then, LTO, he was well
there till close home at Cheltenham in what looks to have been a hot
handicap. This easier course will suit him as will going right-handed
(he's won at Carlisle); and he's been dropped a couple of pounds too!
Currently 3/1, he should perhaps be a little shorter as his only
competition looks like being Made In Time which pairs AP McCoy with the
Rebecca Curtis trained runner. Curtis and McCoy enjoy a high strike-rate
when coupled, but Made In Time has to prove he has the stamina for
today's trip. Recent winner Battlecry is another fancied runner, but he
was fortunate to win LTO (weak race) and he's vulnerable to the
unexposed pair of TIME FOR SPRING and Made In Time.

Had I written this blog before Chapolimoss was declared a non-runner
then he'd have been my selection as I may have obtained a bit better
than 3/1 about him. As it is, he's worth a wager at those odds but, in
line with my new policy, he's not a 2pt win wager and I can't recommend
a wager at odds less than 7/2.

There will be plenty of opportunity for wagers over the Xmas holiday,
with Boxing Day and the 27th December looking like providing great
racing. For the King George on Boxing Day, I cannot see Long Run being
beaten if he's in the form of last year, but he is not invincible as
Kauto Star showed LTO. What should be remembered is that last year Kauto
Star was ridden by AP McCoy in this race, and I felt at the time he
bustled Kauto Star along when he didn't need to be. Ruby Walsh
understands the horse well, and he could conjure up a tear-jerking run
from him. For 3rd place, I'm going for recent Sandown winner GOLAN WAY
who (hopefully) will have the stamina to last out the trip at what
should be a heart-breaking pace.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that
readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful
wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a
contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those
that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Let's crown this Prince

2011-12-20T10:19:00.001Z

The 408th edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

Yesterday's selection AFISTFULLOFPEBBLES ran particularly badly.

The horse sweated-up beforehand and never got into contention during the
race, and was pulled-up when tailed-off before 2-out. In my opinion, the
horse was palpably not in a condition to race.

On the form book, the horse has real potential to do well at this grade
and that it ran so diabolically suggests that there should be (if at all
possible) a way for on-course veterinary staff to assess the condition
of horses pre-race and, if they are of the opinion that the horse is not
in a condition to race, then they should have the power to declare it a
non-runner on veterinary grounds. At the moment, I think the onus is on
a trainer to bring the horse to the attention of the on-course
Veterinarian should he (the trainer) think that the horse is not fit to
run (if already declared).

I expect I was not the only punter to strike an early wager on the horse
at what looked generous morning odds (6/1) expecting those odds to
shorten closer to the off. I thought he'd start with an SP of under 4/1,
instead he drifted out to 10/1. As only 8 went to post, and 3 of the
others had no realistic chance of being involved, it was probably only
"office" money from punters off-course who kept his odds at 10/1 -
otherwise, he'd probably have been 16/1 or longer.

It's one thing to lose money on a horse that tries its best and is
defeated, and quite another to lose money on a horse that had no
realistic chance of winning from the moment it left the stables.

I also think that stewards should consider the movement of odds prior to
a race and compare the SP's with a recognised "tissue". Significant
disparities - be they shorter or longer - should require the trainer
(and owner) to report to the stewards their opinion for such a movement.
This is a professional sport after all, with every race televised.

I'm just looking at the one race today which is at Taunton, and it's the
extended 3-mile handicap at 2:00. Trainer Paul Nicholls has a great
strike-rate at Taunton and he sends 2 horses to the track, of which
PRINCE TOM runs in this hurdle race. A course & distance winner, he was
staying-on well in a much more competitive race than this LTO at Newbury
when he was 3rd. He had no chance with the leading pair that day but
today, running off the same OR125 mark, he won't have as much to do.
Most of the others have stamina to prove and, while the soft going may
be an issue, we know that fitness isn't and we know the horse should
improve for his recent run and he stays the trip. PRINCE TOM was my
selection when he ran LTO, and I expect him to do the biz today. Current
odds are 3/1 (Corals & Boylesports) but be quick as I expect him to
start a lot shorter.

Selection:

Taunton 2:00, PRINCE TOM, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Coral & Boylesports)

Thanks for reading this blog.
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Go ahead, make my day

2011-12-19T11:07:00.001Z

The 407th edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

A small profit achieved on Saturday thanks to COURT RED HANDED who
plugged-on to be 3rd (advised win & place) at 10/1 in the Tommy Whittle
Chase at Haydock. The going there was soft/heavy and many of the horses
finished their races extremely tired. In such conditions, finding horses
which naturally stay the trip and are game enough to continue running
will pay dividends during the winter under the new whip rules. COURT RED
HANDED looked to have absolutely no chance of being in the money 4-out
and only came 3rd due to the last fence fall of Pearlysteps in 2nd at
the time. Even the eventual winner, CANNINGTON Brook, only just held on
as his stamina gave out in the final 100 yards.

The soft going also did for the other selection BENBANE HEAD who was
always struggling in the race won by The Minack.

Today, in the opener at Bangor at 12:40, one from last year's horses to
follow list re-appears - Afistfullofpebbles. I marked this horse down as
one to follow last year after he won his 1st two chases over 2m5f. He
ran 3 times last season, never looking anything like his best and, as
such, has been dropped 10lb by the handicapper to OR115 - just 3lb above
his last winning mark. His full brother Rapid Increase (also trained by
Jonjo O'Neill) improved markedly when stepped-up in trip to 3-mile, but
Afistfullofpebbles has yet to demonstrate that he will appreciate this
sort of trip. O'Neill also has Canal Bank in this race which further
complicates things, but it is Afistfullofpebbles which is ridden by AP
McCoy.

This looks on paper to be a really weak Class 4 chase and as such, I'm
going to take a chance that the drop in the handicap and the trip will
bring back a return to form for AFISTFULLOFPEBBLES today. He is a proven
chaser with winning form in the book on similar going and current odds
of 6/1 do not reflect his chance as I reckon he should be 7/2 for this.

There is not much else worth attention at the remainder of the Bangor
meeting, or at Plumpton.

Selection:

Bangor 12:40, AFISTFULLOFPEBBLES, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds
guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that
readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.

It may be heavy-going today

2011-12-17T10:34:00.002Z

The 406th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

There have been no selections this week on the blog, but it’s always worthwhile visiting here anyway as DYSTORIA’S REVENGE was strongly suggested as having a decent eachway chance midweek (the only reason I’ve not posted up any selections is that I’m in a new job and having difficulty accessing the monitoring websites that I use to “proof” my selections) and it only went and won at 22/1.

Today is another day, and what a day it poses to be.

At Ascot, the opening handicap hurdle sees one from my alert list DUSKY BOB, revert back to hurdles. Were the trip today less than 3-miles then he’d be the one I’d be on, but he hasn’t looked to have the stamina for this trip before today.
In the next at 1:25 another from my alert list is the race fav RENARD. He looks well-placed here to make it 4 wins on the bounce, as he’s not yet looked like stopping his improvement. But, I was on Politeo LTO when 2nd at Ascot over 2m3f and this drop in trip to 2m1f will suit him as will the soft going, as he’s won on that in Ireland twice. I can’t split the pair, a reverse forecast maybe?
There is no way I can oppose BIG BUCKS in the Long Walk Hurdle, and John Francome said on Morning Line that if you’d put £100 on all his 1st hurdle race which he won and then rolled-up the winnings every time he’s race (and won) since, you’d have over a million quid today. I’ll have to check that.
The handicap chase at 3:05 over 3-mile looks a cracker. There are 2 off my alert list in it; Benbane Head and Reve De Sivola. The race fav is The Minack who I think is vulnerable as he probably wants further than 3-mile now. He’s also up 9lb for his LTO win, and while the form has worked out well, BENBANE HEAD is 10lb better-off today with him. REVE DE SIVOLA has been called a few names and he may not have won at trips further than 2m5f (5 races over further) he has run well in defeat in some top races. His run LTO has worked out particularly well and he will be staying on late. Given his style of running and that is he drops out mid-race, if you want a wager on him then you’ll likely get much longer odds than 5/1 if you are prepared to risk a wager mid-race. For a traditional pre-race wager, BENBANE HEAD at 8/1 (Bet365) looks the value.
The Ladbroke Hurdle at 3:35 is too tough to call, tho’ DESERT CRY at 14/1 looks well treated as he’s won on heavy, and his win LTO showed much improved form and it was run in a very quick time.

At Haydock, the going there is heavy. I do not like heavy going, especially at Haydock as it decimates fields and makes form almost obsolete. That said, it should prove no problem to WOODY WALLER in the 1:40 as he’s already won on heavy going.
The feature race at Haydock is the Tommy Whittle Chase over 3-mile. The going may find-out top-weight Cape Tribulation (who is on my alert list). It is asking a lot to expect Cannington Brook to make this his 1st chase win, tho’ he should be thereabouts. When COURT RED HANDED won LTO, my money was on the 3rd Wolf Moon. That form has worked out well enough, and at 10/1 (Blue Square & Stan James) he’s eachway value.

I’ll give Newcastle a miss.

Selections:
Haydock 2:45, COURT RED HANDED, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Stan James)
Ascot 3:05, BENBANE HEAD, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Snow is falling, all around us...

2011-12-16T10:00:00.002Z

The 405th edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

There are 3 horses from my alert list running today:-

Heather Royal, a half-sister to Barbers Shop, who could be a lot better
than she's shown so far, and what she has done marks her out as above
average. She runs in the competitive 1:55 at Ascot where she is very
much the Henderson 2nd-string to Molotof. Smart prospect Hazy Tom is
also running and he's the current "evens" fav. As only 7 go to post
(Banyan Tree is a NR), it is unlikely that Heather Royal will finish in
the 1st-2 (unless Molotof or Hazy tom suffer a mishap) tho' she should
well finish in 3rd.

Then, in the 2:30 at Ascot, there is Frascati Park. I really like this
horse as he makes-all and jumps his fences fast and well. He walloped
another off my alert list - Kudu country - LTO by 14-lengths, and I
thought Kudu was going to be one of this seasons better novice chasers
after he won his chase debut in good style. This race could have 3
co-fav's in Chablais (Henderson), Pacha Du Polder (Nicholls) and
Kumbeshwar (King). Personally, I reckon both Chablais and Pacha Du
Polder still have it all to prove after they both won facile races on
their respective chase debuts. Kumbeshwar, is a bit more interesting
but, again, he did not excite me as much as FRASCATI PARK did with his 2
wins on soft going (which he has here today) at Carlisle. Is he a wager?
Given the competitive nature of the race, and that they are all
potential high class chasers in the making - the other 2 runners being
Zaynar and Michael Flips - I am going to have to say no, as I was
expecting to obtain odds of 8/1 or more.

At Uttoxeter, there is a 3-mile handicap hurdle at 2:20, and from my alert list runs CHAC DU CADRAN. This progressive 5yo has just had 2 runs under rules since progressing from PTP's and this trip and soft going
should be within his scope. There have been a few non-runners, but 16
still go to post as I write and that means 4-places. CHAC DU CADRAN
should make the 1st-4 comfortably, but will be hard-pressed to beat the
current 6/4 fav Thehillofuisneach who comes into this race officially
10lb well-in. When you are wagering eachway, the selection really
should have a good chance of winning the race, as the place part of the wager is the "fall-back" position to recover your stakes should the
selection not win.

I can't see CHAC DU CADRAN winning unless a mishap comes of the
favourite in his race.

As such, no selections today, tho' I would not put readers off from
having a "fun" eachway wager (2 x singles and a double) on FRASCATI PARK
and CHAC DU CADRAN.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that
readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful
wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a
contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those
that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

Fwd: Nothing doing today

2011-12-15T09:42:00.001Z

The 404th edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

Yesterday's selection (not posted on monitoring websites) WYKE HILL, ran a decent 2nd at an SP of 15/2. He never looked in danger of finishing outside the places, hence my assessment that his true odds were more like 4/1 and, as he was 13/2 when I posted my blog his SP was fair enough. My only gripe is that just seconds before the off, several online bookmakers were offering odds of 9/1 and he was at 8/1 with just about everyone else – so why only 15/2 return as the SP?

Today with heavy going at Exeter and Towcester is not being my most favourite track from a punting point of view, coupled with my opinion that both meetings are fairly ordinary, I'm not making any selections today and giving racing a miss. There will be better days and easier targets (hopefully) over the next couple of days which look like being very entertaining.

It will also give me some time to catch up and up-date my alert list which – if I say so myself – has been hitting the target with some consistency of late. I find it much easier to spot future winners over the jumps when comparing the form on the day a horse last ran and finding performances that have been under-rated by either the Official Handicapper or the renowned rating service RPR (Racing Post Ratings) than I do studying the form on the day when time is usually the biggest factor between success and failure.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Oh so lucky with a 22/1 winner y'day

2011-12-14T10:04:00.001Z

The 403rd edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

What a result! Yesterday's 3m & 1½fh'cap chase proved to be a nightmare for in-running punters when the clear leader – Corkage – fell at the 2nd-last fence and, in doing so, impeded the staying-on Quel Ballistic unseating his rider. That left Eighteen Carat in a clear lead but, as I wrote yesterday, he wanted likely to stay the trip and was already a beaten horse before the 2nd-last. As such, he was running on empty and DYSTONIA'S REVENGE, who I knew would relish this test of stamina, came from well-off the pace to lead close home at the incredible odds of 22/1. You would not have given the horse a chance, even after the 2nd-last as he was possibly 20-lengths off the pace then and even at the final fence he had 15-lengths to make up. Let's be honest, the horse would not have won had Quel Ballistic not been impeded at the 2nd-last fence, but he would most likely have run 2nd to that horse. Corkage, who fell at the 2nd-last when well clear, has now failed to complete in 4 of his 5 chase starts and those who took 1.20 in-running on him approaching the 2nd-last should have taken that into account – but they didn't. As is reported in today's Racing Post, Corkage, Quel Ballistic and Eighteen Carat all traded in-running at less than 1.20 and eventual winner DYSTONIA'S REVENGE traded at 999 to £18.

As I did not put DYSTONIA'S REVENGE up as a selection with one of my monitoring services (I use Betting League and Tip Exchange) I will NOT be taking that win into account when calculating my profit. I am endeavouring to establish a link via my mobile phone to register my selections Monday-to-Friday with the above monitoring sites, but in the meantime, any selections not posted there will not count.

EMMASLEGEND who is a half-sister to the useful Aimigayle, was indeed well schooled (as I wrote yesterday) and ran out an easy winner at 2/1.

There is a decent meeting today at Newbury and only the one race takes my eye and that's the 12:50 a 3-mile class 3 handicap chase. A couple of weeks back I tipped WYKE HILL and he made an uncharacteristic error early-on and fell. He comes here today on the same rating and this improving horse will take a good deal of beating today. The fav, Paul Nicholls Minella Stars will need to improve a lot on what he showed LTO, and My Boy Paddy and Penny Max are too short in the market on form shown to date. I expected WYKE HILL to be under 4/1 for this as it looks an easier task that that which he faced LTO and he started 5/1 for that race. Therefore, current odds of 13/2 (Tote and Betfred, 6/1 elsewhere) look the value to me. I will be having 1pt eachway on him.

This blog is being written and posted remotely – so please bear with me as once it's posted I have no ability to amend it if the text colour is difficult to read.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Revenge is best served cold

2011-12-13T09:59:00.003Z

The 402^nd edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

No blog yesterday, and this blog is being written and posted remotely – so please bear with me as once it's posted I have no ability to amend it if the text colour is difficult to read.

A couple of jumps meetings today at Catterick and Folkestone.

There are a few horses from my personal alert list running including Monsieur Jourdain who won LTO at 14/1. He goes for the 1:50 at Catterick over 3m & 1½f and I'm not entirely sure that he will stay this trip. He was caught towards the end of both his recent races and only won LTO as his challenger fell at the last fence. Behind him LTO was Quel Ballistic and he will enjoy the extra 3f today, but one that I think will relish the test of stamina even more is DYSTONIA's REVENGE who is a winner of 4 (from 7) PTP's. He's struggled to complete rules races (only 4 completed from 8 starts) but his latest (30Nov) when he just failed to win in fast time suggests improvement. Eighteen Carat will likely lead (or dispute the lead) but he's another who isn't guaranteed to stay beyond 2m 6f. DYSTONIA'S REVENGE is 12/1 (Blue Square & Bet365) and looks worthy of a small ew wager.

The 1:20 at Catterick sees the hurdling debut of ex-Cumani trained horse BOURNE, but he meets the useful looking CRACKENTORP who won LTO 12-days ago and that experience could prove decisive. Not a race to get heavily involved in tho' unless you know something that I don't.

The 3m & 1½f handicap hurdle at 2:20 sees OVERYOU return to a more suitable trip. He appears to have stamina to burn as he's won 2 of 3 races over 2m6f+ but is 0 from 14 over shorter trips. This lower grade race will suit him better too. As such, I reckon he should be much shorter than the 18/1 offered by Corals as he's only 8/1 in the Racing Post betting Forecast. He has to be worth an eachway wager given there are 17-runners.

At Folkestone, in the 1:10 we see the chasing debut of recent hurdling winner EMMASLEGEND who is a half-sister to the useful Aimigayle. If she's been well schooled - and Suzy Smith knows her onions – then she will prove hard to beat especially with her 7lb mares allowance. The final race on today's card, a 3m1f chase, looks like being an interesting one. My old mate Absolute Shambles runs and he may enjoy the competition in this. He ran in snatches LTO, before throwing-in the towel. But there are half-a-dozen that could win this race and it'll be one for watching for me.

I'm not able to access the site's that I post my selections on for monitoring my performance, but if I was able then I'd be seriously considering both DYSTONIA's REVENGE and OVERYOU today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

JONCOL to take the John Durkan at Punchestown

2011-12-11T08:30:00.001Z

The 401st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 25
Winners = 5
Points staked = 30pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 13.60pts (ROI = 45.33%)

Yesterday’s meeting at Cheltenham was very informative in my opinion, and should throw-up a fair few winners, possibly even a Festival winner.

It started with the odds-on Hinterland being turned-over by the 14/1 BABY MIX who was having his hurdling debut in England having raced in France till mid-October and only joined trainer Tom George on 21st November, 3 weeks ago. BABY MIX looked very impressive indeed.

The 3-mile novice chase has been won by some decent horses, and 3 times in the past 7 years by Paul Nicholls (with Inchidaly Rock, What A Friend, Cornish Rebel). As such, his winner of this JOIN TOGETHER looks to have a bright future. He fell in his debut chase on 22nd Oct and, based on the form of that race, he may have gone close had he finished. The form of his next run (which he won) has worked out well enough. Mossley did not jump well today in defeat, so that tempers the form of today's race a little, but he was well there till stamina told from 2-out. Mossley is also clearly a smaller horse than JOIN TOGETHER and he may struggle as a chaser. I’d say this run puts JOIN TOGETHER 2nd only to Grands Crus amongst the staying novice chasers and (on a line thru’ Sonofvic) Nicholls will know just how good that one is.

The next race on the card - the class 2 handicap chase - fell apart when Tanks For That and Dave’s Dream both lost their riders at the 4th-last. Takeroc was already beaten when he fell at the next fence as he needs the bare 2-mile on a flat track to show his best. As such, my selection HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO was left in front and very quickly seemed unhappy with the situation with subsequent winner Astracad taking-up the running after the 3rd-last fence. He stayed-on again after the 2nd last (as he was now chasing rather than leading) but he was unable to re-assert his authority on the race. He should stay on OR135 and I feel he’ll be best going right-handed (has won twice at Ludlow) as he held his head oddly, and he could also stay up to 2m4f. As for Rileyev, the sooner he steps up to 2m4f, the better in my opinion.

The novice hurdle was dominated by SEA OF THUNDER – a half-bro’ to champion hurdler MAC’S JOY – who stole a commanding lead going to the final flight with the race at his mercy, but there he fell in spectacular fashion. Given he’d been put in his place by Hazy Tom LTO at Wetherby it could just be that that unbeaten 5yo (who is entered to run at Ascot next week) could be a lot better than the OR143 rating he’s been allotted. Whatever, SEA OF THUNDER is improving fast and looks to be OR140+ and might yet be worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence as his illustrious half-bro’.

The feature race of the meeting, the Spinal Research Gold Cup, went to Quantitativeeasing, a horse that I was not surprised to see win over a course and trip that he has excelled at. He has improved with every run prior to today, but in this race he matched his best effort and he may find life tough when re-rated as he’ll surely go up at least 7lb. Medermit in 2nd is as consisitent a horse as you’ll find and runs to the same level over fences as he did as a hurdler, 157-159. He is the benchmark for this race. Roudoudouville had the race won jumping the last, but the Cheltenham hill claimed him. If he stays on OR145 he can win a race over 2m4f. As for my selection GHIZAO, he made a couple of errors in his jumping and at halfway I’d almost given up on him. But, at the top o’the hill he travelled quickly into contention and looked to be travelling best after 3-out and landed in 3rd at the 2nd-last. However, he did not stay the final couple of furlongs and his effort petered-out. The tactical speed he showed in this competitive race marked him out as a classy horse, and a race over 2m1f or 2m2f could see him at his best. I still think he has the potential to run well in the QM Champion Chase next March for which he is 33/1.

The Grade 2 International hurdle produced another top hurdler in GRANDOUET for Nicky Henderson to go alongside Binocular, and Oskar Whisky. The runner-up Overturn won the Fighting Fifth hurdle last week and I reckon matched that performance in this, which puts GRANDOUET at about 160 (Overturn has never run better than 160, so where the handicapper gets OR168 from is anyone’s guess). Overturn will never win a Champion Hurdle, but GRANDOUET might. The RP’s race analysis tries to dampen down GRANDOUET’s Champion Hurdle potential by coming out with the “5yo’s don’t run well in the Champion Hurdle” bunkum, which should be binned alongside “2½ milers go well in the National”, and “French-breds don’t stay the National trip”. Let’s look at the facts:-
In 2011 – 2 x 5yo’s ran, Clerks Choice (6th) and Mille Chief (last of 11).
In 2010 - a 5yo was 3rd (Zaynar),
in 2009 - 5yo's came 2nd, 3rd and 4th (Celestial Halo, Binocular, Crack Away Jack - 23 ran)
In 2008 - a 5yo's came 1st and 3rd (Katchit, Punjabi - the only 2 5yo's in the race)
In 2007 - a 5yo came 3rd (Afsoun) with the only other 5yo (Detroit City) in 6th.
In 2006 - there were 3 x 5yo's in the race rated, OR145, OR147 and OR154
In last 5 years, 5yo's have filled 7 of the 16 available places (was 4th paid in 2009?) - that's a helluva strike-rate for an "age" so easily dissed – when they only provided 10 of the total 71 runners in those 5 years! On those stats, I’d say every 5yo that runs in the Champion Hurdle should be backed.

Along with GRANDOUET, the 3rd-placed horse BRAMPOUR ran in last March’s Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, and this is looking like having been a classic year for the 4yo’s.
The final race on the day’s entertaining card saw OSCAR WHISKY win at odds-on. He is the best performing hurdler this side of the Irish Sea seen this autumn and should be a lot shorter than 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle. The reason he’s not is that he’s probably more likely to go for the World Hurdle (for which he’s 8/1) and whether that’s the case will likely be answered if he takes up his entry for the Long Walk Hurdle next week at Ascot.

At Punchestown today (Sunday) we have the John Durkan Memorial Chase, a Grade 1 event over 2m4f. On official ratings there is very little splitting the main contenders. Top-rated is Rubi Light who will have going and trip in his favour but, for me, the jury is still out on whether he is really an OR164 horse, as he wasn’t beating OR137 rated Coolcashin much when he fell at the last (was re-mounted and finished 3rd) LTO. JONCOL will also love the trip and going and won this race 2 years ago as a 6yo. For me, he is the one they all have to beat. Were this race over 3-mile, I would not hesitate in nominating Kempes as I feel he needs further than 2m4f.The trip and going will also suit Tranquil Sea, but I feel he’s more of a 155-157 rated chaser, whereas JONCOL is 160-163. Interestingly, Barry Geraghty who rode both these horses when they last ran (and won on both) has opted for Tranquil Sea, and so Paul Carberry has the ride on JONCOL. If Geraghty’s choice results in the odds shortening on Tranquil Sea (from 7/2) then it could be that I can obtain 3/1 or even 7/2 about JONCOL and that would represent value in my book as at his current odds of 5/2 the market has it about right.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

A landmark page - the 400th blog post

2011-12-10T10:24:00.000Z

The 400th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 23
Winners = 5
Points staked = 28pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 15.60pts (ROI = 55.71%)

Wow! The 400th blog page, who would’ve thought it?
It’s an auspicious day for the blog, so let’s see if we can mark it with a good winner.

There was no blog yesterday. I’ve just started a new job and the opportunities for sneaking half-an-hour in the morning to write and post-up the blog online are scarce. However, I am working on it and will probably have to resort to writing the blog the evening before racing on the train home from work. The majority of my selections emanate from my personal alert list and, so long as I can keep on top of that, I should be able to maintain my performance.

Thursday’s selections were a little disappointing. THE COCKNEY MACKEM ran a decent enough race and looked like winning 3-out (touched 1.20 in-running) but in the end, he had no effective response when challenged. As for ROSSBRIN, the race came too soon after the bold effort of his previous run.

There are a stack from my alert list running today: they are:-
Cheltenham
12:45 Join Together & Traffic Article
1:20 Takeroc
2:30 Great Endeavour / Ghizao / I’msingingtheblues / Quantitativeeasing / Roudoudou Ville
3:05 Brampour
3:35 Any Given Day & The Knoxs

Doncaster
1:05 Lively Baron & Emmaslegend
2:15 Quite The Man
3:20 Benny Be Good

Lingfield
12:20 Goring One
2:05 Helpston & Carpincho

The feature meeting is Cheltenham. Let’s get to it and the 12:45 has a couple of non-runners now so just 5 go to post. If TRAFFIC ARTICLE repeats his form of his LTO win here over an extended 3-mile then he’s going to need a good one to beat him on today’s terms, at 7/1 he’s the value for me in this.
The 1:20 looks a tricky race on paper. I feel TAKEROC needs a flat track and Cheltenham wont suit him. Tanks For That is best fresh, as he proved LTO, but the runner-up that day HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO looks to have a great chance here as he’s likely got the stamina to stay 2m4f (and he’ll need that today in this over 2m & 110yds) and looks to be improving still. Rileyev will be arriving late on the scene, possibly too late; and Oh Crick seems to find nothing under pressure these days despite travelling well in his races. Astracad has been highly tried and his form is difficult to weigh-up, as such I feel the balance of probabilities lies with HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO at 4/1.
The feature race at 2:30 is very competitive and why it cannot find a decent long-term sponsor is beyond me. Great Endeavour would have won the Hennessey had it been a 3-mile race and I think he is still competitive off OR157 which is 6lb higher than he ran off in the Hennessey. Ditto, I’mSingingtheblues who should be able to win off OR152, but not over this trip. IT would not surprise me to see Quantitativeeasing win today, but then Divers who finished just behind him LTO has a similar chance. Given the ”good” going, I am surprised that GHIZAO runs in this, but his rating of OR154 is (in my opinion) very lenient and he should be 160+. He was not pushed at all LTO after a couple of early errors and Ruby Walsh being in the saddle gives me more confidence. He’s 17/2 with some bookies, and that is too long.
I’m hoping Sanctuaire does not run too big a race in the International hurdle at 3:05 as I reckon his OR150 rating is very exploitable. Let’s hope he’s used as a pacemaker for BRAMPOUR, and drops out early. The Relkeel hurdle at 3:35 should be a near walk-over for OSCAR WHISKY who looks a decent antepost for the Champion Hurdle (if that’s what his target is).
Lingfield has been abandoned as I write this, and there is a further inspection planned at 10:30am at Doncaster

I’ll post this now, and return to Doncaster later if I see a selection there.

Selections
Cheltenham 1:20, HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:30, GHIZAO, 1pt win @ 17/2 (Vic Chandler, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Is ROLLING ACES a future Gold Cup winner?

2011-12-08T09:30:00.001Z

The 399th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

Another day without a firm “blog” selection yesterday, but mine is not a blog that puts up selections just for the sake of it. I wager my own money on each and every selection to the level of £40 a point, and if I can’t find a selection to risk my money on then I’m not going to risk my readers money on it.
I can’t say fairer than that, can I?

Today it is going to be a brief blog as altho’ there are 3 meetings and the one at Huntingdon features the Peterborough Chase, today (Thursday) is the first day of a new venture for me and I am writing this blog on Wednesday evening as I can’t guarantee getting this blog online on Thursday.

As I said, 3 meetings at Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton.

The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon at 2:00pm should be won by SOMERSBY as he is about 10lb ahead (in my opinion) of his nearest rival which is The Nightingale. If I could get the Racing Post betting forecast odds of 9/4, then I’d make SOMERSBY a 2pt win wager but, as I write, the odds for SOMERSBY are just 7/4 and - while that is still “value” (I reckon he should be odds-on at 4/5) – it is against my principles to recommend a wager at those odds. It may be worth wagering on a straight-forecast: SOMERSBY to beat The Nightingale.

At Ludlow, there is a very interesting chase handicap at 2:40. ROSSBRIN was most unlucky to meet a horse with unlimited stamina LTO, and there is little chance of that tomorrow as most of these are fairly well exposed. Roseneath is up another 8lb for a fairly ordinary win LTO. Inside Dealer strikes me as a horse that prefers trips less than 3-mile. Simply Wings wants the going soft/heavy (it is “good” going). Rockiteer has gone up 9lbs for winning a weak race LTO and he will struggle off OR126. Midnight Haze will also find the going on the quick side for him, but he is an interesting runner who goes well fresh. Cast Cada has won all 3 times he’s raced at this trip, but he usually needs a run and this looks competitive for him. Oscar Prairie has questions to answer after his run LTO, tho’ if he were pulled-up in haste he could be an interesting runner. As for Pigeon Island, is this trip really what he needs? He will be running-on late, but will it be too late? ROSSBRIN is 11/2 (Paddy Power) and that looks more than fair as we know he’s fit, jumps well, goes right-handed, and he runs off the same rating as last week.

Before then, at 1:10pm, we see THE COCKNEY MACKEM return to the track after he unseated LTO. I reckon he is much better than OR122 and so long as we don’t see another novice-style error, he should win this easily as some of the others look handicapped to the hilt on what they’ve shown over fences so far. Vic Chandler go 11/4 and that looks more than fair.

At Taunton, I reckon we will see the next step to eventual grade 1 chase glory of ROLLING ACES from the Paul Nicholls stable. Trainers like Nicholls follow certain paths with their better horses and, so far, ROLLING ACES is following in the footsteps of Denman.

Selections
Ludlow 1:10, THE COCKNEY MACKEM, 1pt win @ 11/4 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Ludlow 2:40, ROSSBRIN, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thanks for the memories

2011-12-07T10:28:00.000Z

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

Another day with no firm selection yesterday, but readers cannot say they don’t get decent advice in the narrative.

SECRET EDGE absolutely hacked-up at Fontwell, as I thought he would. I don’t advise wagers at odds under 5/2 as (especially with jump racing) mishaps can happen even to the best horses and that “risk” factor has to be built-in to your wagers. At £40 a point (the stakes I use) I expect a return of £120 from a 3/1 winner, and that is the minimum return I demand. So, to obtain that from SECRET EDGE yesterday I would have had to wager £210 and that, for me, was too great a risk.

I also looked at the opener at Southwell on the all-weather as there had been a significant move on TAKAJAN in the betting from 7/1 to 11/4. As (in my opinion) his true odds were 5/1 he had been “over-egged” and as such, had gone from a wagering opportunity to a laying opportunity. For those who do not understand value, this race was a great example. With “true” odds at 5/1, those who obtained 7/1 were on at great value. If you have a wager on 12 horses at odds of 7/1 whose true odds are 5/1 then (providing you read the market well) you will win twice and lose ten times resulting in an overall profit (at 1pt per wager) of 4pts or 28.57%ROI. That is good business. But, when that “true” 5/1 chance shortens to 11/4, then it is a rock solid laying opportunity. Does that make sense?

Before I move on from yesterday, may I give a big thanks to G-Star Sports Tips who put me onto the 6/1 winner NANNA MAURA at Sedgefield. The Racing Post BF had NANNA MAURA as the 7/4 fav and, for some reason, several others were supported in the market allowing NANNA MAURA to drift to 6/1. Having looked at the form, NANNA MAURA was easily the most talented in the race, and also had the going in her favour; what’s more she was proven at the trip. No other horse met these basic criteria and the RP had it right – she should have been the 7/4 fav. Her Irish-based trainer JJ Lambe does not have the same reputation here in England as the likes of Gordon Elliot and others, but he’s no mug. And I can only think that office punters found the horses sent by Nicky Richards and Lucinda Russell more sexy.

I bought a Racing & Football Outlook yesterday and it’s not a bad read. One feature that I really like (so much so, that I do the same exercise myself) is their Top Of The Form page were they highlight races run when the form has really worked out well. Spotting such races quickly is invaluable for the punter and much–maligned REVE DE SIVOLA who was 5th to Galaxy Rock recently, is one that could soon be in the winners enclosure at decent odds. For instance, the class 5 novice chase at Kelso on 5th November has produce no less than 4 next-time-out winners (NTOW’s). There is no assessment of Irish races tho’ and at the Punchestown meeting of 28th October (and this meeting has produced 13 NTOW’s so far) the handicap hurdle won by Irish Soul has produced 5 NTOW’s – exceptional.

There are two jumps meetings today at Hexham and Leicester. The going at Hexham is heavy (probably very heavy having been under snow for most of yesterday) and I’m giving that meeting a wide berth. Heavy going and the restrictions on use of the whip mean that form (as we know it) goes out of the window. I’m sure others don’t see it that way, but I’m avoiding heavy going meetings until I know the jockeys and horses know how to act on it.

The meeting at Leicester brings back old memories as I won on the 40/1 winner Bubble Boy in the final race of (what is) today’s card in 2009. That was before I was blogging, but I wrote a write-up on the race with Bubble Boy as the selection under my moniker of Wayward Lad on the Betfair forum. That was quite a day as, having referred to my notebook entries for the day, I had win wagers on 6 horses that day and 5 of them won (the loser being Grand Slam Hero in the same race as Bubble Boy, he was 3rd). It was just after I joined twitter and @Mulldog who was one of my first followers (and is still a presence on twitter) could verify that 40/1 winner.

There is no selection today, as the racing doesn’t provide any value.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

There is always tomorrow

2011-12-06T10:19:00.000Z

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

No firm selection yesterday, but the one race I focussed on resulted in me spotting the winner in INVICTUS who romped away with the race under an enterprising ride from Robert Thornton. He showed excellent tactical speed and jumped like a stag so, hoping the handicapper isn’t too unkind, he can follow-up.

One I missed from the weekend (and omitted to mention yesterday) was WEST END ROCKER who won the Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday. He was one of my 3 selections for the National on the day, and he was going well early-on till brought-down at Bechers 1st time round. He was beaten by the heavy going in the National Trial at Haydock (won by Silver By Nature) and had showed himself to be progressive before that. He needed a run last season, and he has done again this. Provided he isn’t hammered by the handicapper (ie raised to OR146+) he should remain competitive NTO.

Occasionally, something catches my eye and makes me look back at previous blogs. Last night I read the Official Handicappers blog on the useful BHA website (see adjacent link) and his assessment of the win of ETON RIFLES in a Listed race on the flat over 6-furlongs at Fontainebleu in France on 24th Nov. He (the Official Handicapper) reckoned it was his best performance of the season and rated him OR111. I typed the name ETON RIFLES into my blog search facility and came up with my assessment of his run last April when 5th in the Lincoln handicap “…trying the mile trip for only the 2nd time, the way (he) stayed-on in this highly competitive race while on the “wrong” side of the track suggests that (he) could be well-handicapped if racing in the right conditions”. ETON RIFLES was rated OR94 then. DUBAI HILLS – also mentioned on that blog in April – looks well placed on OR92 for a return to the AW this winter.

Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Fontwell.

If SECRET EDGE cannot win the opening novice hurdle at Fontwell then there is something wrong, but then he’s quoted at odds of 4/7 this morning. There are some other “interesting” races at Fontwell but they are low grade affairs and with the going there being soft it’s a case of which horse can grind out an sustained effort will win.

The Sedgefield meeting is similar to Fontwell, low-grade racing with little to inspire. As such, I’ll leave well alone. Sometimes the best course of action is to keep your money in your wallet as there is always tomorrow.

I’m not a great fan of the All-Weather racing, but in the opener at noon there has been a significant market move on TAKAJAN from 7/1 in to 11/4 as I write. A couple of other bloggers (James Boyle and Longshot Betting – both have links adjacent) have advised wagers on him at 7/1, but clearly the value has gone now. He’s not in the best of stalls, drawn 7 of the 14 runners, and others – such as Suddenly Susan (drawn 2), Wandering Lad (3), Greenhead High (5), and Prince Of Vasa (6) will make not make it easy for TAKAJAN to dominate the race as he will need to, to win. As such, I would be inclined to place-lay him at 1.80 as he’s the sort that’ll likely win or flop. There is no value at 11/4 in him winning (as his “true” win odds are about 5/1), but there is no way he is odds-on to be placed in this race, and I’d price him at more like 2.50 in the place-only market. Therefore, in my opinion, he is a place-lay at 1.80.

There is no selection today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

INVICTUS to show he's worth £162,000

2011-12-05T10:18:00.000Z

The 396th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

No blog yesterday (it being a Sunday) so let’s take a look-back at the weekend’s racing.

Just the one selection on Saturday and that was MEANUS DANDY who looked well treated on OR140 based on his previous run in the “Badger” chase. He was still well there when jockey Ruby Walsh pulled-him-up before the 15th of 24 fences as he was lame. Trainer Paul Nicholls reported (on twitter) that he was “sore, but ok”. I reckon he would have been 2nd on Saturday had he completed as (in hindsight) the winner Deep Purple was thrown-in off OR149 given he’d won the Charlie Hall in 2009 and is very much an “autumn” horse having now won 9 of 13 races between 1st Oct-31st Dec, but only 2 of 10 between 1st Jan – 30th Apr.

SIZING EUROPE silenced the doubters in the Tingle Creek with a spectacular performance; as such he remains the one they have to beat in the QM Champion Chase next March. That said, there is not that much between him and Big Zeb, altho’ the latter needs to jump cleanly to produce his best as he is apt to make errors when under pressure. Given their dominance of this division, these two should be shorter odds than 3/1 and 6/1 respectively until another realistic challenger appears. Personally, I reckon that challenger could be Master Minded if Paul Nicholls can find they key to making him return to his best next March, and current odds (20/1 with Sportingodds) suggest he’s worth a few quid antepost. Earlier, AL FEROF won the Henry VIII Grade 1 novice chase but I’m not sure that performance warrants him a 7/1 quote for the Arkle as the horse he beat - For Non Stop – is significantly inferior to him over hurdles and had no chance of matching him on the run-in.

At Aintree, I was right when I said FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent as he massacred what looked to be a competitive field. He comes from a cracking good jumps family and trainer Phil Hobbs knows how to extract plenty of improvement from his mature hurdlers.

At Chepstow on Saturday, an old friend Le Beau Bai finally won again for the 1st time since Feb ’10 (his 12th race since that win). He produced his best form in that period when 2nd (off OR137) on his 2nd run last season when racing over hurdles on heavy going. I recommended him as a selection when 3rd in Haydock’s National Trial (won by Silver By Nature) last March, but he’d looked out of sorts since as he needs an extreme test over on heavy going. As such, thru’ no fault of his own, he’d slipped 10lb’s down to OR127 but I thought the 3-mile trip at Chepstow on Saturday would be too short for him and he’d arrive on the scene too late. He looks well-in (even if he’s raised 10lbs) should he race on heavy going again this season.

Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings; one at my local track of Plumpton and the other at Musselburgh.

At Plumpton, the opening novice hurdles has some interesting recruits from the flat, so get your notebook ready. Next up at 1:10, we have the Irish raider Gift of Dgab sent over by AJ Martin. Martin has even flown-over jockey Davy Russell, but as he’s only given the lad 2 rides in the past 5 years (both were beaten) that’s not a “signpost” for me. For all his renown, Martin has only had 3 chase winners from 64 runners (in chases) in the past 5 years – hardly stats to be scared of. Paul Nicholls has his only runner today in this – Indian Daudaie – but he usually sends hurdlers to Plumpton, and there isn’t a great deal of market support considering the horse has the benefit of the huge 4yo age allowance in this. As such, I reckon Alan King’s INVICTUS, who cost connections £162,000 in April 2010 after winning a 3-mile PTP in Ireland, could go off at generous odds in this when really he should be trading at less than the 5/4 he won at on his chasing debut LTO.

The rest of the card has fairly ordinary races with one-paced runners – a case of which horse happens to be leading after the last fence being the winner; but which will it be?

I can’t see anything worthwhile at Musselburgh at all.

There is no “official” selection today as the only race that looks worthwhile at Plumpton has only 5 runners and, as such, there isn’t likely to be much movement in the odds. The 2/1 about INVICTUS is “fair” but I’d hope for a little more, at least 9/4 but more like 5/2. If I can get 5/2 then I will be having a wager as there is a small doubt about him handling today’s going (soft).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Tremendous 12/1 winner yesterday!

2011-12-03T11:25:00.000Z

The 395th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)

Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.

Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.

Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.

The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.

Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.

The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.

Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.

I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.

Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Two long-shots for Sandown

2011-12-02T08:50:00.000Z

The 394th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

What a day for the blog – yesterday I discussed 3 races and found 2 winners at SP’s of 2/1 and 15/2 plus a 3rd horse who was a neck 2nd at 6/1, and I named none of them as firm selections. Sometimes (and yesterday was one of them) I kick myself for not having enough strength in my own opinions. Just a point win on each of those 3 and I’d have been 8.50pts in profit on the day for 3pts staked. It is the reason why I put in my narrative, so that readers can take my thoughts and opinions and use them to strengthen their own views. I do not take these “winners” into my profit & loss calculations (I wish I did) so my blog is transparent and bears scrutiny; but hey! It’s a lot better having to read some reasoning rather than just a list of horses names, isn’t it?

Before I move on, can I just say that ROSSBRIN was most unlucky yesterday to meet a horse who stays forever running in his debut chase; No Principles. I will support ROSSBRIN again as he jumped his fences very low and at speed, as such he could prove best at around 2m5f. No Principles is a previous course winner at Market Rasen and made-up a lot of ground (despite being impeded by the faller at the 2nd-last) over the final half-mile, he could be one for the marathon chases.

On to today’s racing and we have a grand meeting at Sandown for a Friday. Nicky Henderson can do no wrong at the moment and, as such, his novice Semi Colon will start at short odds for his chase debut in the 1:30 there. Clearly an improving hurdler, this will be different and for all the Henderson talents he cannot guarantee his novice chasers take to the jumps. There are a couple of proven novices in LEXICON LAD and Loch Ba, and altho’ Loch Ba is weighted to reverse their recent meeting, LEXICON LAD looks a horse with potential over the jumps.

Next up, the 2m4f hurdle novice hurdle would not disgrace the Festival itself. Unbeaten Fingal Bay was very impressive LTO, and Simonsig is an unknown – talented, but how good? Jump City will need to improve a lot on what he’s shown so far over a trip that may well stretch his stamina. There are no question-marks over SIZING SYMPHONY and the trip and going will be in his favour. His form from Cheltenham (Peckhamecho in 3rd has won both his races since and is rated OR132, yet was btn 17-lengths in receipt of 8lb) and Fairyhouse looks rock solid, and odds of 9/1 (William Hill) seriously under-estimate his chance.

At 2:30 we have the “Future Stars” chase over 3-mile & 110 yards, and this (in my opinion) hangs on how you rate last year’s novice chase form. I was on BOSTONS ANGEL when he won the RSA at the Festival, and it must be remembered that he is the only horse to beat Quito De La Roque over fences. He was travelling and jumping well before a rare error unshipped his rider LTO and he is a lot better than his rating of OR152 which seriously under-estimates his ability and achievements. He will prove in this that he is a 160+ chaser but, such is his task at the weights, he will need to be at the very top of his game to win today. The reason is GOLAN WAY is better than OR146 and (on a line thru’ Quito De La Roque) could prove up to the task today being in-receipt of 6lb from Bostons Angel. Odds of 10/1 (Ladbrokes) are plain daft given trainer Sheena West’s ability and that the horse is fit from a recent hurdle race.

Exeter features the Devon Marathon chase and Power Pack Jack will no doubt try and make-all as he did LTO. However, I always respect David Pipe’s entries in these long-distance races which he likes to target (since sending Lord Atterbury to be 3rd in the National when still a point-to-point trainer). SHAKING HANDS comes here fresh from a 269-day break and was the fav (at 6/1) for the Devon National here last March. I would be hoping for more than the 6/1 on offer tho’ as these sort of races are a test of strength, not form, and what looks like winning at the 2nd-last could end up a distant 3rd at the post. If I can get 8/1+ then he’ll be a (small) eachway wager.

Selections:
After yesterday, I’m going in with;
Sandown 1:55, SIZING SYMPHONY, 1pt win @ 9/1 (William Hill, BOG)
Sandown 2:30, GOLAN WAY, 1pt win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Venetia Williams back on form

2011-12-01T10:55:00.000Z

The 393rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.

No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.

Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.

This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.

At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.

The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.

The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.

I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort'men

2011-11-30T11:08:00.000Z

The 392nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)

Final day of November, and a great result for the month; the full results being:-
1st Nov, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4; unplaced …2.00pts lost
7th Nov, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
7th Nov, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
7th Nov, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
8th Nov, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
9th Nov, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
9th Nov, SANGFROID, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
11th Nov, CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew; unplaced …2.00pts lost
12th Nov, WOLF MOON, 1pt win; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
15th Nov, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
16th Nov, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
19th Nov, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew; WON @ 8/1 …9.60pts PROFIT
21st Nov, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win; lost (3rd of 5) …1.00pts lost
25th Nov, AIGLE D'OR, 2pts win; unplaced …2.00pts lost
26th Nov, WYKE HILL, 1pt win; Fell …1.00pts lost
26th Nov, HUMBIE, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost

Selections for November 2011 = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

As can be seen, I am no follower of the fav’s and short-priced horses so the strike-rate of winners to runners is not huge – but, at the end of the day, I’m in profit.

There has been no blog since Sunday as the racing has been dire. To be fair, today’s racing is not much better.

At Hereford, Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort’men, so he must think that the horse has a future over fences. Always best watched these novice chases, especially when horses are jumping a fence for the 1st time in public. One I will be keeping an eye on is TIGER O’TOOLE who is not a bad hurdler (OR136) and his usualy style of running (held-up) could aid him here today over the first couple of fences by enabling to have a look at them and get into a rhythm. He’s 10/1 generally, and I’d rather have a “fiver” on him than risk £25 on one of the 7/4 joint-favs who head the market with the prospect of a similar return.

Later at Hereford, there is an interesting 2-mile h’cap chase at 2:50pm. The fav is Bradford Boris who is on my alert list, but I feel this trip is a bit on the short side for him and that he would prefer another half-mile. He will need to lead and set a decent pace to expose the others in the race, however his jumping hasn’t been fluent in the past. As such, I’m looking elsewhere in the race and Evan Williams (also trainer of Tiger O’Toole) sends the unexposed WESTER ROSS for this. Williams has his stable in top form (8 wins from 21 rnrs in past 14-days) and he has a 21% strike rate with chasers at Hereford. WESTER ROSS appreciated the drop to 2-mile LTO (he does not stay much further) and even tho’ he’s got a 7lb penalty, he is officially 2lb well-in for this. Odds of 9/2 look fair.

David Pipe sends out only one runner today – Poole Master in the 12:40 at Uttoxeter, interesting!

Neil Mulholland also has only one runner today – Big Knickers in the 3:40 at Uttoxeter. The horse looks well handicapped on his run when 2nd to E Street Boy but whether he will stay 3-mile today is the question.

No selections today, I will choose to end the month of November in profit.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Sunday supplement

2011-11-27T13:44:00.000Z

The 391st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)

A blank day yesterday with WYKE HILL falling at the 3rd fence before the race had properly got going, and HUMBIE running an absolute stinker. It was an uncharacteristic error for WYKE HILL, he just never got enough height and crashed thru’ the fence, despite leading the field into it (thereby having a clear view). As for HUMBIE, he never looked happy from the off, and altho’ he made some good jumps and looked capable of getting back into the race when they passed half-way, that effort was short-lived. As such, top-weight Hey Big Spender merely had to run to form to win this.

My antepost selection in the Hennessey – SARANDO – was the 1st to fall at the 16th (of 21) fence. The race was just starting to hot-up and he was bustled into the previous fence, so he may have been feeling the pinch a bit. Up until then, he was running and jumping well, so I’d say he’s well handicapped off OR153 and he should be winning again NTO. Overall, I thought the Hennessey was a decent race and the eventual winner CARRUTHERS ran up to the level of his best form the Spring of 2010 (when he ran 4th in the Gold Cup to Imperial Commander). There are a lot of worse antepost wagers you could make than considering CARRUTHERS and yesterday’s runner-up PLANET OF SOUND for the Gold Cup as place prospects. Considering PLANET OF SOUND has run only 4 times at trips beyond 2m5f, his record is that of a top-class chaser and he should be aimed at the Gold Cup (there was talk of the Grand National yesterday) as he has a real chance as he’d have beaten Long Run in last week’s Betfair Chase based on this Hennessey run.

My biggest disappointment was not putting-up OVERTURN as a selection at 3/1, as he was never going to be caught by Binocular in the fighting Fifth hurdle. There was a bit of debate on Twitter about the consistency of Binocular, tho’ I’m not sure why as there cannot be many racing fans who don’t know that the only target for the horse is the Champion Hurdle in March and any races prior to that are part of the preparation for the big race. If this pair meets again on Boxing Day at Kempton, I expect Binocular to improve about 7lb and beat Overturn by a few lengths, and I expect a further 7lb improvement on that again for the Champion Hurdle in March.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Hennessey Gold Cup ay Newbury

2011-11-26T10:21:00.001Z

The 390th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)

Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.

It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.

On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.

At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.

At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.

Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.

Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.

Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The money is going down today!

2011-11-25T10:05:00.000Z

The 389th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ I put in a good word for KENTFORD GREY LADY and she ran out a comfortable winner at 15/8. She could be worth noting, as her dam won the Mares’ novices hurdle final (listed race) over 2m5f in 2004, and was rated OR112. Also, her dam’s half-bro was 4th in the Racing Post Chase and was rated OR135 as a chaser – so there is plenty of talent in the dam-side.
GRANDS CRUS had no problems in his novice chase and remains on-course for a Festival appearance – but which race?
Another mentioned on the blog was THE COCKNEY MACKEM and he fell mid-race with a very “novice” jump (took off too early and landed on the fence). As such, he should stay on OR122 and is – in my opinion – on a lenient mark.
The handicap chace that I looked at was won by the 5yo and bottom-weight THAT’LLDOBOY, trained by Paul Nicholls. This one is clearly on the upgrade still, but the opposition fell away rapidly over the final fences (Buffalo Bob is well-off his best form) so let’s hope the handicapper does not go overboard on this effort.

There are 3 jumps meetings today, but I will only concern myself with that at Newbury as Doncaster and Musselburgh don’t have wagering opportunities (that’s me being polite!). That said, the 2:35 at Doncaster looks to have some potential (class 3 chase over 2m3f), but good-to-firm going at this time of year scares me a bit. Also, Tarvini (2:00, 3-mile h’cap hurdle) remains well handicapped on old form (has won off OR120, and runs off OR110 today with a 10lb claimer riding).

Newbury has what looks to be an ordinary meeting for the eve of the Hennessey Gold Cup, but the novice chase at 1:35 will be great to watch. Will Bobs Worth take to fences? Can Cue Card jump a fence at speed? Has Spirit River “grown” since last season when a novice chasing flop? Me, I will be having a sneaky couple of quid on MAD MOOSE at 20/1 as he’s a rock-solid OR137 chaser having 6 chase runs (won 2, placed in 3) under his belt and not fallen.
I’ll give the novice h’cap chase a miss and look at the 2:45, the 3-mile h’cap hurdle (class 3). My alert list notes tell me Caddie Master has not stopped improving, but on good-to-soft or worse he’s 0 from 4, but on good going or quicker he’s 3 from 5. OK, he was only btn a short-head on soft going LTO, but the race was not run in a fast time – as such, I think he discounts that form and that of Frontier Dancer. Paul Nicholls 1st-string Like Minded has not shaped like a OR130 horse, so I think he’s got too much on his plate. Sivola De Sivola did not stay 2m5f LTO, so 3-mile has to be a question-mark for him. Artic Court is Jim Goldie’s first runner here, and he’s never had a winner south of Bangor-on-Dee, so that has to be a negative. I don’t think Carribs Leap is up to this level. The Shy Man runs best at this time of year and won well LTO, so he could well be involved but I can’t see him winning. Kasbadali is thought to go best right-handed and is another with stamina to prove. One I like the look of is the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string, PRINCE TOM with 7lb claimer Harry Derham riding. He ran a couple of great races last season, is proven to stay this trip and ran well in a top handicap LTO in a fast time. At 12/1 he looks a value wager, but this is such a competitive race I’m going to bottle-out again and pass on this one.

In the 3:15, last year’s winner AIGLE D’OR has only had this race as his target since running at the Galway Festival. Trainer Nicky Henderson has an awful record in Ireland (why does he bother going?) so I can ignore that run and the earlier one at Punchestown. His Festival run was not as bad as his placing suggests as he did not cope well with the large field of 20 runners. But this horse (2nd btn a head in the Greatwood Hurdle of 2008 with 11st 5lb) has a touch of class about him. As such, I reckon he will beat Rileyev. It is a tough induction for Hold Fast so odds about him of 4/1 are no value at all. Oh Crick could be a contender if recapturing his best form of 2-years ago off OR139 (was rated OR160 after a 5th in QMCC of 2010), but that’s unlikely. AIGLE D’OR is 9/4 with several bookies, and I reckon he should be more like 6/4 as he will be well prepared for this race. He is going to be a 2pts win wager (see my adjacent page with total record of 2pts win wagers).

Selection:
Newbury 3:15, AIGLE D’OR, 2pts win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Also, take a look at a previous blog page for 7th November - are you on SARANDO at 40/1 for the Hennessey tomorrow?

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Grands Crus to make another step towards the Arkle

2011-11-24T10:39:00.000Z

The 388th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday as I managed to persuade myself that recommending a wager on MONSIEUR JORDAIN was not a good idea despite him being an improving 5yo chaser who was guaranteed to stay the 2m 6f &110 yard trip. He went and won at 10/1 benefiting from the last fence fall of the favourite Dusky Bob; but that one was probably tiring anyway (the reason for the fall?) and may not held onto the lead anyhow. At least I know I’m on the right track reading the form-lines as I read that race near perfect. MONSIEUR JORDAIN was only 7/1 in the morning when I posted my blog, which was a big reason why he wasn’t a selection. I managed to obtain 12.50 on Betfair just before the off, which is equivalent to 11/1, and I traded out my stake at 3.10.

We have 3 jumps cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter today, so let’s see what’s in store.
At Newbury, I’m looking to oppose the fav in the opener with Emma Lavelle’s KENTFORD GREY LADY as those 2 that beat here LTO are above average, and this is a much easier task. Next-up, the novice chase at 1:00 has a Henderson chasing debutant in Celtus and that should allow one from my alert list THE COCKNEY MACKEM to go off at a bit of value. He easily has the best chasing form in this race and should be odds-on; instead, we could get 9/4. Edgardo Sol who beat him a nose LTO has won again since and is rated OR134, and THE COCKNEY MACKEM is on a par with that. At 1:35, the novice h’cap hurdle over 2m5f has been won by some decent horses in recent years and I have PROMISED WINGS on my alert list after he lost LTO by demolishing the final hurdle. That said, I’m not sure an extra furlong will be to his good, and the fav Sentimental Journey could prove hard to beat in what looks a competitive race.
GRANDS CRUS reappears in the 2:10 and it is most unlikely that he won’t win this, tho’ Viking Blond will be no pushover. It’s hard to know what to make of Sonofvic until he jumps a fence in public.
Buffalo Bob won the 2:45 last year, but his trainer Kim Bailey has his stable in poor form and he ran a stinker LTO (with my money on and as a selection for the blog). Current fav Zarrafakt hacked-up on his seasonal debut last season but then flopped in this and again in the Spring. I don’t think he can be relied upon, and neither can Rackham Lerouge. That’lldoboy was the main beneficiary of tardy jumping by his rivals LTO and that form could be unreliable. Leading Contender does not do well in fields of more than 6 runners, and so that brings me to PIRAYA. He stays this trip, will appreciate the going and he has run well at this meeting for the past 2 seasons (he was 3rd over 2m4f off OR142 here last year). He ran well on his seasonal debut last week, and David Pipe is likely to have aimed him at the race so he should have come on for that run. It looks a tough ask with 11st 12lb, but no recent winner has carried less than 11st 5lb so he’s got trends on his side.
Nothing takes my eye at Taunton, and at Uttoxeter I want to see CROSS KENNON win the beginners chase but the rest of the card leaves me cold.

Do I have a selection today? After yesterday, I should go with my conviction and have a punt on PIRAYA, but with only 1 win from 20 starts in the UK he would not be a confident selection.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

Lastly, a recommendation to readers of the blog to visit G-Star Sports Tips (http://gstarfrankels.blogspot.com) who gave the following winners from yesterday: Hazy Tom, Best Lover, Always Bold, Restaurateur and Bailadeira - that’s 5 winners from 7 selections. What’s more, they are not just names on a blank page, each selection has some narrative as to why it has been chosen.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Is the 'swinger' value?

2011-11-23T11:41:00.000Z

The 387th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I was interested in the result of the 3-mile h’cap chase at Lingfield. This turned out to be a cracker of a race with 7 or 8 still in the hunt at the 4th last fence, after which Felix de Giles sent Wide Receiver, the 100/30 fav, on into a clear lead. They came to grief at the 3rd last fence when toppling over on landing. It’s debateable whether Wide Receiver would have won but I reckon he would as he’s won over 3m3f at Fontwell, so he wasn’t lacking stamina over this 3-mile trip. The race was won by chasing debutant Monbeg Dude, who travelled very well in-behind the leaders and he looks good to follow-up as with a winning margin of just a head over Goring One, the handicapper cannot be too harsh. Any stamina doubts about Goring One were dispelled and, on reflection, I’m putting all 3 named horses onto my alert list. I was also interested to learn that the Tote “swinger” for 2nd & 3rd paid £14.60 – I would not have selected Monbeg Dude going into yesterday’s race, but Goring One and Pete The Feat were both on my radar.

Racing today looks uninteresting, and I’m only taken by the 3:05 at Wetherby, a class 4 h’cap chase over 2m 6f & 110 yards. The 5yo MONSIEUR JOURDAIN was beaten on the run-in LTO by Lockstown, who needs every yard of 3-miles (and more), but he looked like winning jumping the last fence and continued to pull-away from the fav (proven stayer Coppers Gold). Today’s fav Dusky Bob has never won from 4 attempts beyond 2m4f & 110 yards, so he may find stamina an issue today even tho’ he should handle the good-to-soft going. I don’t know what to make of Quel Ballistic, but he looks harshly treated on OR107. Banoge is a one-paced plodder who wants the going hock-deep in mud. Quel Bruere will stay 3-mile and should guarantee a fair pace, but again looks one-paced at the business end. AP McCoy returns to the saddle on I’m A Decider and altho’ his last 3 wins have been on good-to-firm and he flopped LTO when running on heavy, he has won on soft going and shown form on good-to-soft before now, and he should not be 12/1 for this. Allenard’s 3rd to Wide Receiver (see remarks above) could be good enough to see him in contention as the drop in trip LTO wasn’t in his favour, and he’s another who should not be 12/1 for this. Dawn Ride loves Wetherby, but his jumping is poor in fields larger than 6 runners and he cannot be advised. Dystonia’s Revenge has no chance. The race should be between Quel Bruere, Monsieur Jourdain, I’m A Decider and Allenard (should the fav, Dusky Bob, not stay the trip) and I cannot split them, so I will probably play the “place-only” markets on these.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Forgive me Father

2011-11-22T10:25:00.000Z

The 386th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

What a tremendous day for Nicky Henderson yesterday.
He sent out 8 runners and had 7 winners, as he had 2 horses declared for the opener at Kempton (won by Darlan) and withdrew Wise Move at the start. This follows his 5 winners from 7 runners on Friday. It is a pity that he was not rewarded better with prize-money. Had Henderson placed a £500 accumulator on his 7 runners (and winners) he would have taken more off the bookies than he won in prize money. Henderson sends out 2 today, both run at Lingfield and I would expect both to win, but they are at such short odds I cannot recommend a wager. Remember, in jumps racing anything can happen and that element of “risk” has to be taken into account, for instance 1/8 chance Mossley nearly came down at the 14th fence in the 3-runner race that he won.

My sole selection yesterday MIDNIGHT APPEAL ran without any zip. It was an unexplainable run from the horse, but he never looked happy and his jumping was not confident. As he has been progressive (till yesterday) I will give him a chance to recoup the loss.

Today’s two meetings, at Lingfield and Sedgefield over the jumps, look ordinary. I’ve been thru’ the card at Sedgefield and there’s nothing that takes my eye. Pretty much the same at Lingfield, tho’ the 3-mile h’cap chase at 3:20 is a puzzle. I would be wanting to oppose the fav Wide Receiver in this, especially if he goes off at under 3/1, as he won his last two races by wide margins pretty much simply because he outstayed the opposition. There will be no lacking opposition that stays the trip in this race, and Wide Receiver has been raised 14lb for his LTO win. Don’t get me wrong, he should start the fav on known form, but there are a couple in the race who may well upset him. Goring One is on the upgrade and is expected to stay this trip, but he’s also been raised 10lb for a facile win LTO. Anna Newton-Smith, trainer of Goring One, also has Pete The Feat in this race and he has no stamina issues. He would prefer the going soft tho’ as would most of the others. The one that takes my eye is FATHER PROBUS who will be ridden by Paddy Brennan. Brennan rides 2 for Fergal O’Brien today and he’s won on 2 of his 4 rides in chases for Fergal. Last time out, FATHER PROBUS split 2 next-time-out winners in what was his debut chase. Admittedly, he would prefer the going to be a bit softer, but then so would the fav Wide Receiver. FATHER PROBUS is 8/1 with Ladbrokes and I can see him running a big race, but I think I’d want 10’s before having an eachway wager on him.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

If you want value, this is where to come

2011-11-21T09:52:00.001Z

The 385th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We start the week on a high after a great winner on Saturday from the only selection, with I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romping home at 8/1. Unfortunately, no donations were received which was disappointing as (according to Statcounter) the blog had 111 unique visitors on Saturday, of which 52 were returning visitors.
With 54 visitors returning to this blog more than 6 times in the past week, and another 46 who have returned between 1 and 5 times, I am sure those that do return time and time again do so because they get some value from the blog.
I have updated my stats page and, since 1st November 2010, I have advised 187 wagers on this blog, and they have returned a total profit of 28.5525pts from 211pts staked; that's a Return on Investment of 13.53%.
If you visit the well-established site Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) which has been operating since 2004; from over 3700 registered “tipsters” only 17 (yes, just seventeen) of those who “back” horses (not layers) and who have placed more than 50 selections with their last selection being in the past 30-days, have a better ROI than 13.53%. Adjust the filter to more than 100 selections (I have advised 187 on this blog) and only 8 registered tipsters beat my ROI, and they ALL charge between £25 to £60 a month.

There is an interesting blog written by Steeplechasing (http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com) which is well worth a visit. It is written by Joe McNally and he’s written a page on possible value for the Gold Cup next March. I won’t steal his thunder, but it will come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog that I am pretty much in agreement with him as to where the next Gold Cup winner is coming from. Long Run should improve a few pounds with better jumping and so he is clearly the best from this side of the Irish Sea, but believe me when I say “the Irish are coming!”

There are 3 meetings today, so plenty to choose from. There are a lot of small fields which could be due to it being a Monday.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Ffos Las.
At Kempton, the 1st-4 races are headed by short-priced fav’s and they are not my cup’o’tea as I can’t see anything to oppose them with. An old friend in PICKAMUS runs in the 3:10 and he has going and trip in his favour, and he’s even won going right-handed. Seeing-as he does not stay a yard more than 2m5f it seems odd that his only chase race at a suitable trip last season was in a Grade 3 H’cap Chase in which he was almost certainly outclassed (he fell mid-race). It was unfortunate that he ran over 22f LTO off his last winning mark of OR130 as, if he’d stayed that trip, he would’ve won. Henry Daly has managed to get Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but I feel that won’t be enough to beat the fav MIDNIGHT APPEAL. This full-bro’ to My Petra is going the right way and looks leniently treated on OR127 considering he’s won 4 of his 5 chases and LTO met a decent rival in Roudoudou Ville. He was 2nd that day in a fast time at Sandown, and at 9/4 this proven jumper looks the value in the race. Like his other full bro’ Lake Legend, MIDNIGHT APPEAL needs a bit of rousting along and stays 2m4f+. This is Alan King’s only runner today and he’s worth a wager tho’, given his style of running, it could be worth having some money on in-running at perhaps 5/1 (6.00) as I reckon he may well trade a lot higher than his current odds of 3.25 – it’s a thought.
I cannot see anything at Ludlow either, so all-in-all for all the racing on offer, it is a disappointing looking day.

Selection:
Kempton 3:10, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win at 9/4 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

One selection, and it's an 8/1 winner!

2011-11-20T12:18:00.000Z

The 384th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

How wrong was I about KAUTO STAR?
I had a small wager on Weird Al, but for most of the 2nd circuit I was cheering-on Kauto and (as I wrote on twitter) never have I wanted a wager of mine so much to lose.
KAUTO STAR was magnificent. It was nowhere near his peak performance of winning the King George in December 2009, but it was a performance that (in my opinion) would have been enough to win the Gold Cup last March. Will he be able to repeat that on Boxing Day? That is debateable as his old bones have taken a pounding in this race. I was taken with the performance of Weird Al as he looked capable of overhauling Kauto at one point before the 2nd-last fence, but his stamina limit is 3-mile. Aintree in the Spring and the “Bowl” over the Mildmay course would be the target I’d aim him for.

I gave you only one selection yesterday, and what a selection – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romped home a clear winner at odds of 8/1 giving followers a 9.60pt profit on the day. He was given a great ride by Hadden Frost and (combined with Haydock winner Dynaste) provided further proof that trainer David Pipe is “king” of the handicaps.

Master Minded showed that when he wants to be, he is a 170+ chaser. At one point I thought Somersby would hold on to the lead, but that was a brief thought. In this sort of form, Master Minded is a clear Champion Chase contender, but he is such a good jumper of a fence these days I reckon Paul Nicholls is right to put him into the King George on Boxing Day. Long Run (last year’s King George winner) will appreciate a return to Kempton, but his jumping is not foot perfect and Master Minded may expose his limitations again – and Kauto Star will have the stamina to take advantage. What a double-act!

No selections today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Will Kauto Star be singing the blues?

2011-11-19T12:13:00.000Z

The 383rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No blog yesterday due to technical issues. My laptop charger went “pop” about a month ago (the original had lasted from June 2010, about 16 months), and I bought a replacement off the internet which went “pop” on Thursday evening. The postman has just delivered a replacement.

Let’s get straight to it, shall we?

I reckon today could be the very last time we see KAUTO STAR on a racecourse. The Racing Post may have rated his performance in the Gold Cup at 174, but I thought it was a stone below that at 159. Be honest, What A Friend in 4th that day has never been better than a 160 horse, yet RPR rated his run at 172. Come on, stop having a laugh! Throw-in the fact that Kauto is never anywhere near his best 1st-time-out in a new season and so at his most vulnerable, we could see him struggling to run above 155 today – which means he will be well beaten. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my heart speaking, not my wallet. I rate Long Run at 170 which puts him on a “par” with Diamond Harry’s Hennessey performance of last season. Given that Diamond Harry can go extremely well when fresh, I’d expect him to beat Long Run. My money tho’ is on WEIRD AL who has won 5 of his 7 chases, and looked immense when winning the Charlie Hall LTO. He’s proven race-fit, and capable of improving another 7lb+ on that performance (which I rated 165) and that would put him right in the mix and so at 7/1 he is the value. Being a strong traveller, I expect him to trade at below 4.00 (3/1) in-running so that there is an opportunity to trade-out for a risk-free wager.

At Ascot, we see another Paul Nicholls wonder horse in Master Minded going for a repeat win in the Amlin Chase. Interestingly, other that when ridden by Sam Thomas on his UK debut, the only jockey to lose a race on Master Minded has been Ruby Walsh, so I’ve no problem with him being ridden by Daryl Jacob. However, this race revolves around whether Master Minded wants to race or not. If he does, he wins – full stop. If he doesn’t, then you have to be on SOMERSBY who is a cast iron 2nd-best on ratings but is rock solid consistent performer. At 2/1, it is a toss-of-a-coin bet , but you only get “evens” for that.

My only recommended wager today tho’ is on I’SINGINGTHEBLUES in the 3:20 at Ascot. This 2m1f trip will be perfect for his, as will be the going. He showed last week that he can win off OR145 and I am surprised that he is as long as 8/1 (Ladbrokes). It is a tough race, but that should play to the strengths of I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES as he will love a strong pace.

I’d like to spend a bit more time writing the blog, but now winter is here, it has to be posted in good time to allow readers to get on if they want a wager.

If any other opportunities come up today during the afternoon, then I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) or as a comment to this blog. I will also post any selections with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).

Selection
Ascot 3:20, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG, 5th odds 1,2,3)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

A couple to take from yesterday

2011-11-17T10:04:00.000Z

The 382nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s selection SIGNALMAN ran well for a long way yesterday, but he met one in Lightening Rod who was a real “rick” in the handicap. The going was indeed soft/heavy at Hexham and that Lightening Rod looked so comfortable on it (despite not having looked to have handled it in the past) shows just how much he had in hand in winning this race. That said, I was on the right lines as SIGNALMAN started at 7/2, and I recommended him at 8/1 in the morning – so followers of the blog had plenty of opportunity to “lay-off” their stake or even take a 100% profit.

Later in the afternoon, I was taken with the gutsy run of DUSKY BOB in winning the class 4 hurdle off OR100. His half-bro has run well in Ireland off OR111 and stays 2m6f+, so I reckon DUSKY BOB should handle a rise in weights. I will also keep KING PENDA on my alert list as he made good headway from halfway until the going told before 2-out. Given it was far too soft for him, he will do a lot better when conditions are in his favour.

At Warwick, LEXICON LAD won on his debut chase race, from off a 202-day break. Always prominent, this was a tremendous display, especially as the race-fit LTO winner Loch Ba came to win the race 2-out but could not cope with the winner and the pair finished well clear of the remainder. LEXICON LAD appreciated going left-handed (previous 3 runs were going RH) and he is an exciting novice chaser who could run again at the weekend.

We have 3 jumps meetings today at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Hereford, and I’m on a personal recovery mission having posted 8 consecutive losers since staring the month well with 3 winners. Unfortunately, having been through all 3 cards looking for a wager that is suitable, I can’t find one. Hereford has what looks to be the best racing, so I shall continue studying the form there. There are also a couple of races at Wincanton that may provide an opportunity. If one comes up between now and noon, I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) and as a comment, and also with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner 2014 is...

2011-11-16T11:12:00.000Z

The 381st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.

We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.

The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.

In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.

An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.

Selection:
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Looking for a winner at Folkestone

2011-11-15T09:09:00.000Z

The 380th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ if you read the blog you will have noted that I wrote that Emma Lavelle has a good record at Plumpton – and she took the opener with the 11/1 winner Gleann Eagas. Lavelle has now recorded 8 winners from her last 19 runners.
Flaming George only just failed (by a neck) to win for Paul Nicholls, and this race looks decent form. On a more galloping track he could be capable of running to a level of 125+.
Master Milan looked like continuing Jonjo O’Neill's awful November until pure class got him home – his hurdling was atrocious. And trainer of the moment, David Pipe, came away with a brace of winners from 4 sent to Plumpton. Take note of WINGS OF ICARUS – he’s a half-brother to top class chaser QUITO DE LA ROQUE and World Hurdle 3rd, KAZAL. He should find 2m5f+ his best trip in time.
AP McCoy was at Leicester, and had 3 winners from 4 rides – none of them supplied by his retaining trainer, Jonjo O’Neill.

There are two meetings today at Fakenham and Folkestone, and they are both poor quality. It could well be a day for following the money. At Folkestone, one from last season’s alert list runs in ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Now, this horse has led me a merry dance these past 12 months, running 14 times since 19th Sept ’10 and winning 4 times at odds of 5/2, 13/2, 8/1 and 25/1 – and I did not have a wager on him when he won, but consistently followed him when he lost! Today, he is 9/2 with Paddy Power in what looks on paper to be a 2-horse race (only 5 go to post) as Current Climate makes his chase debut, and both Baroque and Romney Marsh are very poor chasers. With main rival Run To Fly making the long trip from South Wales for Peter Bowen, he is a 4/5 odds-on fav. Both are front-runners, both will stay this trip. What swings me towards ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES is that he’s won a chase off a 7lb higher rating, and he’s won on today’s going (good-to-firm). Also, claimer Tom Cannon takes off 5lb and he is worth every ounce. He’s won 7 chases from 21 rides for Chris Gordon (trainer of ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES) this season.

Selection:
Folkestone 3:30, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence

2011-11-14T10:15:00.000Z

The 379th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ perhaps I should have had a nibble as Viva Colonia managed to sneak 5th in the Greatwood and I wrote yesterday that he could sneak a place (Betfred and Tote were 50/1 and paid on 5 places). It was another tremendous ride from Harry Derham to win on Brampour, as he found the cleanest line round the tight home turn (far too tight a home bend in my opinion) to run out a clear winner.
Stablemate Sanctuaire took a wider line and may have finished closer but for being knocked sideways by the violent swerve from Moondice just before the final flight. The tight bend meant most in the leading group moved onto the stands rail and room there was tight (hence Brampour having the “cleanest” run to the line having stuck to the far side). I would take both Moondice and Sanctuaire from this race as they both look to be on winning ratings.
Al Ferof won the opening novice chase very easily and, in hindsight, odd-on at 5/6 was value punt as he probably should’ve started a lot shorter.
This time last year, I jumped on Gauvain after he won the same race last season, but I’ll not make the same mistake again. He’s peaked for the season.
At Fontwell, The Southern National went to Giles Cross who loves these long-distance chases having run 2nd in both the Welsh National and Eider chases last season. Once he led at 3-out, he was never going to be passed and he will probably go for the Welsh National again. Fortification was beaten by the 15lb hike for his previous win; and Rapid Increase ran out of stamina from 2-out. In 2nd was REY NACARADO, and this 6yo half-brother to Florida Pearl could be a huge improver this season.

There are two meetings today at Plumpton and Leicester.
The 4-runner novice chase at Plumpton (1:30) is a cracker of a race. The bookies are taking no chances with Notus De La Tour, but the chasing debutant KIND OF EASY a half-brother to the OR156 Glencove Marina could upset the applecart. Emma Lavelle has a very good record at Plumpton.
In the 2:30, FLAMING GEORGE has his 1st run for Paul Nicholls (his owners have moved this horse about a bit) and it should be a winning run. He jumps, and gets this trip; also he will appreciate the going.
AP McCoy rides at Leicester, and it is worth noting that of the 11 winners he’s ridden in November, only 1 has been supplied by his retaining trainer Jonjo O’Neill from 12 rides. In fact, that winner (Galaxy Rock) was the only winner – so far – O’Neill has had in November from 48 runners.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Leicester, so it looks like a blank day on the selection front.

Lastly, David Pipe is speculating that his crack novice chaser GRANDS CRUS may be entered in Saturdays Betfair Chase to meet the current holder of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Long Run. It may be a bit quick for the horse to meet such seasoned top campaigners but, if he’s good enough, then he should be in the race. In my opinion, there is not much between the top chasers Long Run, Diamond Harry, Weird Al, and even Midnight Chase is not out of it. If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence, we’d see a shake-up in the Gold Cup market then!

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Fontwell hosts the Southern National

2011-11-13T10:48:00.000Z

The 378th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Not the best of day’s for the blog yesterday – totally blown out of the water. All 3 selections were well beaten; another two mentioned could only finish in the places; and even one of my 3-2-Follow for the Season – WISHFUL THINKING – was stuffed.

That said, let’s take nothing away from GREAT ENDEAVOUR who won the Paddy Power with a tremendous display.

Onto today, and the opener this afternoon looks an interesting novice chase. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the past 3 years, and 5 times in the last 9 running’s, so Al Ferof must be respected – but at odds-on he should also be taken on; but with what? The Irish challenger DELPHI MOUNTAIN beat De Valira on his only chase run to date, and he looks better than 25/1 (Vic Chandler) and he should finish in the 1st-3.

It will be hard for WOOLCOMBE FOLLY to lose the 1:45 as he is easily the highest rated horse in the race, but his odds will not be value.

I am not even going to try and find a selection for the Greatwood Hurdle, tho’ VIVA COLONIA is not a 66/1 chance (Vic Chandler again), tho’ Betfred and Tote go 50/1 and pay on 5 places.

I also like the chance of PERPETUALLY in the hurdle at 2:55.

It is such a lovely day today, I should really be going to Fontwell and not taking the dogs for a walk. It is the Southern National there today and it will be a slog on soft going over the trip of 3m4f. It looks a cracker of a race with several old fav’s of mine running: Rapid Increase, Le Beau Bai, Aldertune, and recent winner Fortification. With both Le Beau Bai and Aldertune being very one-paced, it’s a toss-up between Fortification and Rapid Increase. Both will handle the going, both are race fit, and both will stay every yard. The bookies go 8/1 the field and I cannot split this pair.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Time to Loosen My Load

2011-11-12T10:26:00.002Z

The 377th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s selection CRACK AWAY JACK was unplaced, but he did run a brave race in the circumstances. When travelling well, he hit the 3rd last fence hard and sustained a very bad cut. Even so, he battled-back to finish a close-up 5th. Without that error, I feel certain he would have finished very close to winning.

The performance of the day was from GRANDS CRUS and what a performance! He should be aimed at the Arkle in my opinion, as the RSA chase has proved a gruelling nightmare for some novice chasers, who have never recovered.

A great day today, and with 12 horses on my personal alert list running, I have a fair bit of sorting out to do. In the opener at Cheltenham, the Nichools and Henderson pair may head the market, but Alan King’s SECRET EDGE is the best juvenile in his stable – and he knows a thing or two about juvenile hurdlers.
The 1:55 looks another cracker of a race. The fav is Promising Anshan, who is on my alert list, but so is BALTHAZAR KING. I think Promising Anshan is a bit one-paced and he may find the going a bit quick today. He is undoubtedly well-handicapped as my respected tipping rival “The Prophet” in the Weekender has tipped him for this. But, for me BALTHAZAR KING should relish a return to Cheltenham where he’s won twice. Odds of 11/1 look fair value.
I looked at the Paddy Power (2:35) yesterday, and both of my two from my alert list (Noble Alan & Swincombe Rock) are out of the handicap. I expect them both to run well, but not win. WISHFUL THINKING is on my 3-to-follow list (see adjacent page) and at 8:30am he was 8/1 for 15mins. He should be in the 1st-3, but as Long Run showed last season, this race takes a light weight to win. For me it’s LOOSEN MY LOAD at 18/1 with Vic Chandler who goes a 3rd the odds ew the 1st-4.

At Uttoxeter, I think PRESENT TO YOU will prove hard to beat in the 2:40, but the value has been missed here. If you can get 11/4 or longer, then take it.

At Wetherby, the 2:55 is interesting. Vamizi last won off OR103 and since then he’s been 2nd 4 times and is now on OR121. He’s one-paced. I’m going to assume that WOLF MOON has been well-schooled for this as he comes into the race fit from a recent hurdle run. At 5/1, it’s not great value (was hoping for a bit longer) but this could be a weak race.

Selections
Cheltenham 1:55, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:35, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew @ 18/1 (Vic Chandler, 3rd odds 1,2,3,4)
Wetherby 2:55, WOLF MOON, 1pt win at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Whip Crack Away!

2011-11-11T10:16:00.000Z

The 376th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I did the right thing yesterday and did not have a wager.
It seems that Venetia Williams is having a slower start than usual this season. It pays to avoid her stable up-until mid-November but, as she’s only had 1 winning horse this season (Renard, who has won twice), it may pay to keep her on the “watching-list” for another week or so.

There are two jumps meetings, but I am giving Newcastle a miss as focusing on Cheltenham.
I made a note of TIME FOR SPRING when he won LTO, and he could be on a lenient rating of OR125. Combine that with the services of “crack” amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, especially as the under-rated Sound Stage is a non-runner, and we could have a wager. Unfortunately, I have missed the 13/2 available earlier, and at 11/2 he is not for me. That said, I would not put supporters of him off a wager.

Paul Nicholls took a couple from Emma Lavelle’s stable including CRACK AWAY JACK. Based on his run in the when 2nd to Somersby as a novice chaser in Dec ’09 he looks very well treated on OR142. Only had 3 runs since then, all with the word “soft” in the going description. On “good” going he’s 3 wins from 4 runs; with “soft “ in the going, he’s 1 win from 9 runs. It is good going today, Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and we know the horse can jump a fence and today’s 2-mile trip is what he wants. He’s had a wind-op since arriving at Nicholls stable and today is the ultimate test. If he is anywhere near his peak, he will win this by a street and current odds of 4/1 will look silly. This has to be a wager.

The final race on today’s card will be one to savour. I cannot make a selection in this race, but I will watch it like a hawk as it is a cracker of a novice chase.

Looking ahead, I am not entering the Tote 10-to-Follow completion. To me, it looks wide open this year and it’s a difficult enough completion as it is. Personally, I cannot see Long Run winning another Gold Cup as I rated his Gold Cup win at 170, which is 11lb below Denman at his best and a massive 24lbs below my rating for Kauto Star at his best. At 170, he is a good winner of a Gold Cup but not an extraordinary one. Put it this way, I rated Exotic Dancer at 178+ in 5 races.

For the Paddy Power tomorrow, much of the attention is on Mon Parrain and Wishful Thinking. I think at OR164 Wishful Thinking is weighted out of it, but he should be in the places. If Mon Parrain is as good as they say, he should win – but is he? For me, the value is LOOSEN MY LOAD at 16/1. He hates “give” in the going and tomorrow he will have his ground over his best trip. On the Jewson form, he is perhaps 4lb well-in with Wishful Thinking. De Bromhead has aimed this tremendous jumper of a fence at this race and he could take all the beating.

Selections
Cheltenham, 1:45 CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

AP McCoy & Henderson team-up at Ludlow

2011-11-10T11:00:00.000Z

The 375th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday should have been another good day for the blog, but I overstepped my mark.
I was right on the button with THE KNOXS as I said he could be 16lb well-in, and he actually looked that and a bit more! At odds of 9/4 in the morning, he should have been the wager of the week. There are times when betting at odds under 3/1 can represent value, and this was one of them. I also side-stepped DREAM FUNCTION (a sister to Arkle winner Captain Chris) as I misread the “hype” behind the gamble on Swincombe Flame. The hype was misplaced and DREAM FUNCTION won in a canter at 2/1 having been 9/2 in the morning.
Instead of lumping-on those 2 winners, I opted to ride my luck on two others at longer odds.
BUFFALO BOB jumped like a stag, but he was harried for the lead by eventual runner-up Nicto de Beauchene and so was unable to dominate as he likes to. He won 2nd-time out last season, and he remains on my alert list. SANGFROID showed why betting in novice chases is risky business. He has not improved since his chase debut and was well-exposed yesterday, and is now on a losing run of 17 being distinctly one-paced.

At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS looked a natural over fences and won as he liked. It will take a good one to lower his colours this season.

There are meetings over the jumps at Ludlow and Taunton.
The h’cap chase at 2:00 at Ludlow is interesting. If Bold Perk can hold his jumping together then he will prove hard to beat, but that’s an “if”. For me, two horses stand-out: Nudge And Nurdle is much better going right-handed and he stays this trip well, especially on today’s going. Maraafeq is a C&D winner and when he won he had today’s top-weight Gentleman Anshan well behind. Trained by Venetia Williams, this is her only runner today and she loves sending chasers to Ludlow – 11 wins from 38 (+£30.53 to £1). Of the pair, I’d go for Nudge And Nurdle as he could be 5lb-plus well-in. The doubt is the jockey, 3lb claimer Tom Molloy who is best over hurdles.
All Nicky Henderson’s last 4 runners have won at odds of 15/8, 4/9, 3/1, & 100/30. When AP McCoy is in the saddle in a hurdle race, take note – they mean business. AP replaces Nigel Tinkler on DARK SHADOW in the 3:30 at Ludlow and they can upset the odds-on Forgotten Gold. Henderson had 5, 4-day entries in this race (which he won last season) and also sends Joseph Lister for his hurdle debut.

Nothing interests me at Taunton at all.

I will probably regret this, but I’m keeping my powder dry for Cheltenham’s meeting tomorrow and Saturday.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

GOING WRONG another winner at 4/1

2011-11-09T11:05:00.000Z

The 374th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Another great result for the blog yesterday, when sole selection GOING WRONG won at 4/1 giving me a great birthday present. Admittedly, the result could have been fortunate, as the fav and clear leader Flinty Bay lost his rider with a mistake at the 2nd-last fence. However, my reason for selecting GOING WRONG was that he would stay the 2m4f trip and that could not be said for Flinty Bay. Horses make mistakes when they are tired, and Flinty Bay has not shown any form beyond 2m1f and has lost his rider (thru’ mistakes) on both attempts at further. My feeling is that even if Flinty Bay had not fallen, he would have slowed to a crawl in the final quarter-mile. Whatever, another 4pts profit for the blog.

Next, an apology and a rectification of a mistake.
I have tried to apply an email service to my blog so that readers will have the blog automatically emailed to them (by Blogger) when it is posted online. Unfortunately, altho’ the emails do go out there is no control over what time they are sent and users of the service received the email on Monday at 11pm at night! As delivery cannot be guaranteed, I have pulled the service. If anyone can recommend an application that would work, please leave a link in the comments box. I always post my selections on Betting League (see adjacent link) when I post the blog. I also use Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) were I go by the moniker “Quaestor”. Both these services are free and send out my selections via email the moment they are posted.
Yesterday, I said that my 2pt selections for the past 12 months were 7 winners from 11 selections; that was wrong. It should read 7 winners from 12 selections. The profit is therefore 35.50pts from 24pts staked – that’s a 148% return on investment.

We have a couple of decent meetings at Exeter and Bangor today. There is an interesting hurdle at 1:50 with some useful types contesting. THE KNOXS looks well-in here as he beat OR148 Wymott at level-weights over 3-mile in Jan 2010. As such, running off OR132 today, he could be 16lb well-in. He’ll stay today’s trip, and he’s won on good-to-soft . He’s currently 9/4 which is tight, but then I reckon he could start a lot shorter, perhaps 7/4.

Now, I’m not one for novice chases, but the 2:20 at Exeter looks like an opportunity. Market leader Golden Chieftain makes his chase debut today, and he may have been good point-to-point horse, but this will be a different test today. Our Island should improve for his chase debut, as will Five Star Wilsham, but it is SANGFROID who catches my eye. He was 3rd LTO, having been squeezed for room and losing momentum and was beaten only a length – yet the 1st, 2nd and 4th in that race have all won since. At 9/1 he looks a worthy wager.

At 3:50, DREAM FUNCTION, a sister to Captain Chris (Arkle winner 2011) won LTO and had 2 x NTOW’s behind. She looks well-in here, altho’ there has been a market move already this morning for Swincombe Flame. I cannot see here finishing out of the 1st-3.

At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS makes his chase debut and I sincerely hope the horse does well as he’s a favourite of mine. The highlight of that meeting tho’ is the 3-mile chase at 2:10 which has been won by some cracking horses in the recent past. Whatever wins today must go into the notebook. BUFFALO BOB was 2nd in the race last season and then won NTO. As such, he comes here today on a 6lb higher rating than he had last season. Dance Island is an interesting top-weight as he clearly has potential, but I wonder if he is a weight-carrier as his form tails off quickly when he carries more than 11st 4lb – is he a small horse? BUFFALO BOB at 13/2 looks worthy of a wager.

Selections:
Bangor 2:10, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill, BOG)
Exeter 2:20, SANGFROID, 1pt win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Two winners y'day at 4/1 and 7/2, & potential 170% ROI

2011-11-08T10:40:00.000Z

The 373rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a cracking set of results for the blog yesterday.
Just 3 selections and 2 winners, YOU KNOW YOURSELF was advised at 4/1 and won well at an SP of 11/4, and SARANDO romped home at 7/2 (wager advised with Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed).
I also advised taking the 40/1 on SARANDO for the Hennessey – did you? The best odds available this morning are 20/1, and trainer Paul Webber said afterwards. "We'll certainly have to look at the Hennessy now. I think he'll get into that with a 4lb penalty and I'd like to think there's still a bit of improvement in him”.
So, from 4pts staked we collected 10pts profit.
Also, I’ve been back thru’ my records and since 1st November 2010 when I started recording all my selections on the blog, I have made 11 x 2pt win selections, and 7 of them have won! They have recorded a 37.50pt profit from 22pts staked – that’s a 170% return on investment.

First, a plug for a great website if you are entering in the Tote Ten-To-Follow competition. You must visit Peter Martins site that is dedicated to the competition, the link is adjacent. Peter has been running this site for 14 years and it certainly makes putting together a shortlist so much easier. So do yourself a favour and visit http://www.petermartinconsult.supanet.com/racing/ttf/current.htm

As it’s my birthday today, I was hoping to go racing at Lingfield, but the meeting looks a poor one and there’s nothing there of interest to me.

Huntingdon is not much better. The h’cap hurdle at 3:20 could be a race to take an interest in. There has been a move for the fav Right Stuff who won his 1st hurdle at his 12th attempt LTO. He is 13/8 at best, which seems incredibly skinny for a horse that barely gats 2-mile and the extra 110 yards of today’s race could well find him out. Spectait has not seen a hurdle since October 2008, and won in some style a year earlier at Aintree – his sole hurdle win from 4 starts. He will be fit from a busy flat campaign, but he’s 15lb off his best on the flat now, and OR109 could be a bit high for him today. I’d go for Tayarat who won over C&D LTO, but his jockey has only 2 wins from 45 career rides so he does not exude confidence. I want to oppose the fav, but the only horse that looks capable of running well enough to beat him is KING OZZY who is the only runner today for Lawney Hill. He will enjoy the going and, being a prominent runner, should enjoy the pace set by Tayarat. He is a better hurdler than chaser, as he’s not looked comfortable in that sphere and he will have stamina at the business end having won at 2m3f. There is also money this morning for Break The Chain, so I won’t be recommending a wager in this race, tho’ I think Right Stuff is more of a 7/2 chance than 13/8.

At Sedgefield, the 2m4f Novices h’cap chase looks interesting. One from my alert list last season runs in GOING WRONG. He was off for nearly 2-years with a broken pelvis, so was certainly ring-rusty on his return LTO. He ran well for a long way over a trip (2-mile) much too short for him, and the extra half-mile today will be in his favour. I reckon he was capable of OR145 as a hurdler, so running off OR127 today is another bonus. The form of that last race has worked out well (if not brilliant) with the 2nd and 3rd both being beaten by very decent looking horses yesterday. None in this field, other than GOING WRONG, look like they’ll appreciate this trip, so odds of 3/1 look generous. On a line thru’ The Cockney Mackem, there is nothing separating Quite The Man and Flinty Bay, yet the latter is 5/2 and Quite The Man is at 7/1. My selection is GOING WRONG, but I will also have a straight forecast including Quite The Man.

Selections:
Sedgefield 2:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Take 40/1 about SARANDO for Hennessey today

2011-11-07T11:16:00.000Z

The 372nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No blog from me over the weekend as I was in Cornwall seeing my 9yo son. The drive down there on Friday was horrendous, as the rain was terrible. The weekend weather in Penzance was good tho’, with clear skies and some sunshine.

There is some good winter jumps racing today, and hopefully I will find a winner of two. Currently, I am back to full-time blog writing and playing the horses to make ends meet, so there should be an increase in depth to the blogs.

At Carlisle, it is hard to see BOLD SIR BRIAN being beaten in the opening race at 12:50, but he’s not for me at odds-on 4/7 and shorter. A horse that has beaten my wager a couple of times runs in the 1:55 – YOU KNOW YOURSELF. Trainer Sue Smith was someone who I expected to take advantage of the “gap” left by trainer Howard Johnson’s “retirement”, and she’s hit form this last fortnight. Her speciality is chasers and YOU KNOW YOURSELF has a bit of quality about him and he also has the ground he loves, good-to-soft (3 wins from 6 runs). He’s lightly raced for an 8yo and I think he’ll show the fav The Magic Bishop, how it’s done today. Odds of 4/1 look fair, and some bookies are giving sporadic bits of 9/2.

There is an excellent Class 2 “graduation” chase at 2:55 that will be well worth paying attention to. It will be a tough initiation to chasing for the decent staying hurdler Cross Kennon and, at 3m & 110 yards, I think it will be a stiff test of stamina for Aikman. As such, the door is open for SARANDO who comes here with the benefit of a run on the flat 17-days ago to take the race. I highly rate this horse who I think is on a very lenient mark of OR149 given he ran QUITO DE LA ROQUE close at level weights at this trip at Aintree last April and that horse has won 2 Grade 1 chases since including beating Sizing Europe on Saturday. Odds of 2/1 look very generous as I’d have him odds-on at 4/5 for this. He is 40/1 with Ladbrokes for the Hennessey and he’ll likely run off 10st 6lb for that race, but if he wins today those odds will halve. You have been advised!

At Hereford, an old friend of mine runs in JUSTABOUT in the 3:10. This is just the sort of race that I avoid, having 5 runners and all have a chance on the formbook. It is an earlier race that takes my eye here, the 2:15 a “claiming” hurdle over 3m & 110 yards. David Pipe’s American Art makes a long trip for this race, but he does not look reliable despite having won his last 4. American Cricket also won LTO, but he is another I’d not want to take a short price on. Interestingly, Peter Bowen (who also makes a long trip here) sends KRISTALLO back to hurdles after 3 poor runs when chasing. He won over C&D in August and ran well again 7-days later off OR109. The 8lb he gets from the OR119 rated American Art means he should be in with a better than 6/1 chance for this on ground he likes.

Selections:
Carlisle 1:55, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Southwell 2:15, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Carlisle 2:55, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 2/1 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Disappointing Friday racing

2011-11-04T09:00:00.001Z

The 371st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No blog for the last couple of days. Personal life has been a bit busy and, as I’m driving to Cornwall (setting off at 6am) on Friday morning, it’s going to be a full weekend. So, when you read this I'll be somewhere on the A30.

On Tuesday I had a “maximum” wager of 2pts on GHIZAO and I was disappointed with the performance from him. I reckon most followers of jumps racing now expect horses from Paul Nicholls stable to arrive at the track fit and ready to run to their peak. My opinion of GHIZAO was that it was an “exploratory” run. He wasn’t jumping well over the 1st-4 fences, but in the 2nd half of the race he jumped admirably . The pace of the race in my opinion was not strong, so all the main contenders were still in with a chance approaching the 3rd-last fence. GHIZAO tho’ just plodded-on. He wasn’t far off the leader at the line, but that’s probably ‘cause CAPTAIN CHRIS fell at the final fence with the race at his mercy. It was not a satisfactory race as it left questions unanswered. But we know that CAPTAIN CHRIS is much better than his OR160 rating as he picked-up the leaders easily before the final fence, responding well to a couple of applications of the whip. As for GHIZAO, he has potential but he needs to learn to jump, and quickly, before his confidence is irreparably damaged.

A couple of ordinary jumps meetings on Friday as the focus of attention in the horseracing world is on Churchill Downs and the Breeders Cup. At Fontwell, it would be no surprise if the heavy rain suffered in the south turns toe going from soft to heavy. As such, I’ll avoid this meeting.
I have gone thru’ every race at Hexham and nothing excites me there – very disappointing fare.

I will be watching the Breeders Cup meeting, but won’t be having a wager on Friday evenings races.

Next week I’ll be looking at making an entry in the Ten-to-Follow competition run by the Racing Post, and I’ll be trying to come up with a useful shortlist. I’ve put a link to a website run by a fan of the competition – Peter Martin – and it’s a site I’ve used for about 8 years. If you are going to attempt the competition, this site is a “must visit”.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

GHIZAO to repay faith

2011-11-01T06:32:00.000Z

The 370th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We have one of the crucial days of the jumps season with the Haldon Gold Cup being run at Exeter. It is crucial as it sees the first meeting of some of the better novices of the previous season against some of the older horses.

This year we have a classic race in prospect but not due to a clash of the generations, more a rematch of the cream of last season’s novice chasers. The going could be the biggest factor in finding the winner of this race. On known winning form, the “good” going points firmly towards the fav last season’s Arkle winner Captain Chris. However, the going should be similar to that encountered by GHIZAO at Aintree last April and on that day GHIZAO did not look inconvenienced. I’m expecting that GHIZAO will be fully schooled for this encounter and it must be remembered that on 2 occasions he has been superior to Captain Chris over fences including when they met at Newbury over a trip a furlong further than this when GHIZAO gave Captain Chris 10lb and a 4-length beating. At 11/4, GHIZAO looks value as I’d have him more like 2/1. As I have already nominated the horse as one of my 3-to-follow, my colours are firmly fastened to his post, and I’m on. A win for GHIZAO will see the odds of 18/1 offered by the Tote and Betfred for the Queen Mother Champion Chase quickly disappear (the 20’s available when I nominated GHIZAO last week have already gone). As such, I would suggest than you have a small antepost wager on the horse before the Haldon Gold Cup is run.

Exeter 2:50, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes , best odds guaranteed)

Antepost wager on the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival 2012
GHIZAO, ¼pt eachway @ 18/1 (Betfred or Tote) quarter-odds a place 1,2,3.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Value to be had in Gold Cup market

2011-10-30T11:57:00.000Z

The 369th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A great day of racing yesterday and altho’ I was not able to give readers a winner, I was pretty damn close. The big disappointment of the day was DIAMOND HARRY not running in the Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby as he was lame. However, I did write that WEIRD AL was an interesting entry as he also held an entry for the 3-mile h’cap chase at Ascot and so, as such, he was my eachway selection in the race. WEIRD AL looked totally in-command throughout the whole race, for me it was an exemplary performance. First time out last season, WEIRD AL ran a cracker of a race when deat-heating with subsequent Paddy Power winner Little Josh – a performance I rated at 161. My rating of him for yesterday’s race was 160+ and I’ve settled on 163. That therefore puts him within striking distance of LONG RUN who’s winning performance in the Gold Cup I rated at 170 (on a line thru’ the 4th placed What A Friend).

WEIRD AL was one of my Alert List horses last season and my long-term Gold Cup selection. Admittedly, he did run down the field behind Long Run in the Gold Cup after a long lay-off thru’ injury having finished down the field in the Hennessey. He was reported to have bled in the Gold Cup and while that may have seriously affected his form that day, in my opinion he has yet to prove that he’ll stay that trip. If he were my horse, I’d give the Hennessey a miss and go for the either the King George on Boxing Day (for which he is at 14/1), or the Cotswold in January at Cheltenham’s trial meeting. Time For Rupert in 2nd yesterday gave a big boost the the form of the RSA at Cheltenham and the Irish 2nd-season chasers should not be underestimated. WEIRD AL is 20/1 for the Gold Cup and that looks good for an eachway antepost punt (small money) as he loves Cheltenham. But, if he is at 20’s what about the value with the Irish horses? Quito De La Roque is 25’s as is Bostons Angel, and Jessie’s Dream is 40/1.

At Ascot, my selection TAKEROC never looked happy and perhaps this race came too quick for him as he won last weekend at Aintree. Statistically, horses that have run well (ie placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd) and run again within 7-days over both codes (jumps and flat) do well, more so those that have won LTO. As such, I’ll give TAKEROC another chance as he was running respectably off OR148 in the Spring of 2010. Being a winner over 2-mile at Sandown, I don’t think Ascot being a stiff right-handed track, was the reason for his lack-lustre display. His jockey, 7lb claimer Harry Derham won the next race on Brampour with a peach of a ride, and he is a real find and I am sure Paul Nicholls will exploit his 7lb claim efficiently.

My other Ascot selection, MUIRHEAD, was given what I consider was a poor ride in such a hot handicap chase. With 4 to jump he was still well off the pace and altho’ he was hampered at that fence by a faller, it made no difference. With a more positive ride he should recoup the loss, but it was a disappointing result. I also took my eye of the ball in this race as the eventual winner EXMOOR RANGER was on a cracking handicap mark of OR137 considering he ran well off OR145 in the same race last year and ran well off OR144 at the Festival in March. After he was 2nd to Sandown specialist Monkerhostin in Feb 2010 off OR142, he was in my notebook, but before yesterday he had not won since. He can win again.

Today, as much as I am a fan of Qhilimar, he can be upset today by HUMBIE, a 3-parts brother to Denman who got his act together LTO and looks well treated on OR122 in the 2:40 at Carlisle, tho’ the odds are not great.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

DIAMOND HARRY to take the Charlie Hall

2011-10-29T10:22:00.001+01:00

The 368th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A cracking days sport beckon with excellent meetings at Ascot and Wetherby.

At Wetherby we have the Charlie Hall chase at 3:20 and if DIAMOND HARRY is in the same form today as he was when fresh for the Hennessey last autumn, then he will take a lot of beating. Odds of 3/1 with both William Hill and Bet365 are too long as he has nothing to prove, whereas the others all have question-marks. Weird Al (one of my horse's to follow last season) is an interesting entry as I thought he'd go for the 3-mile chase at Ascot. He is my idea of an eachway horse if that is your fancy.

At Ascot, I looks near impossible for me to see TAKEROC not winning the 2:30 and his jockey Harry Derham has won 2 from 4 rides this season for Paul Nicholls. TAKEROC in my book should be less than 2/1, so odds of 11/4 with William Hill are generous.

Lastly, the 3-mile chase at Ascot at 3:40 looks a tremendous race and yet I cannot see past MUIRHEAD. He has the class to defy his OR147 rating today as he hacked-up LTO. Odds of 8/1 look extremely generous despite him having to renew rivalry with Bideford Legend. A previous winner for the blog Balthazar King could upset the selection, but I remain confident in MUIRHEAD.

Selection:
Wetherby 3:20, DIAMOND HARRY, 1pt win at 3/1 (William Hill & Bet365)
Ascot 2:30, TAKEROC, 1pt win at 11/4 (William Hill)
Ascot 3:40, MUIRHEAD, 1pt eachway at 8/1 (Bet365)
Total = 4pts staked (all bookmakers named go best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Lost Glory to continue improvement

2011-10-27T12:27:00.002+01:00

The 367th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog again yesterday.

There are a couple of jumps meetings today at Fontwell and Stratford. I can’t see much to interest me at Fontwell , but at Stratford we have what looks to be an interesting chase over the extreme trip of 3m4f at 3:20.

Last year’s winner Runshan takes part again but he was allowed an uncontested lead when he won and he won’t be given that today with Ere Alfie and Power Pack Jack in the field. As such, I feel they will cut each other’s throats making too quick a pace as you will need to stamina to burn to win this. One that looks to fit the bill is LOST GLORY. Only 6yo and on the upgrade, he had the speed to win over hurdles 16 days ago, but he looks an out-&-out stayer. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill knows what is needed to win this race having won it twice in the last 7 years. The going and trip will not prove a problem and we know the horse is race-fit and ready to go. Ladbrokes go 5/1 (best odds guaranteed) and I think that is good value in a race like this as I’d have him at more like 100/30.

Selection:
Stratford 3:20, LOST GLORY, 1pt win at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

I have moved my “3-to-Follow” onto the adjacent pages for those who are interested and I will follow the progress of these horses through the season.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

3 to Follow for the Jumps - from Wayward Lad

2011-10-26T10:27:00.002+01:00

The 366th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

For the last jumps season 2010-11, I produced a “Horse Alert List” identifying 19 horses to form the basis for an alert list for the season, and the results of that alert list are still available on the blog (see adjacent page). Of the 19 selected horses on the list, 3 did not run all season (Ebadiyan died in December 2010, Kalellshan has not been seen since winning at the Galway Festival of 2010, and Going Wrong finally reappeared in a novice chase last week). The other 16 horses ran a total of 63 times between 1st November 2010 and Sunday 10th April 2011 (the day after Grand National day) winning 10 races between them. What was remarkable about the list was that after Absolute Shambles lost on 1st February, the list was losing 53.25pts to recommended stakes (if 4/1 or under, 2pts win; over 4/1, 1pt eachway); but between then and close-of-play on Grand National day, the list recovered 35.125pts at SP.

There were mistakes and lessons learned from the list; Free World (ran 4, lost 4), Pickamus (ran 6, lost 6) and Cesium (ran 4, lost 4) were clearly badly handicapped and they may be worth taking a look at this season. Others, like Mont Present (ran once) Weird Al (ran 3, won 1, injured LTO), Gentle Ranger (ran 4, 4th in Midlands National), Midnight Haze (ran 3, won 1) and Rapid Increase (ran 3, won 1) still have a lot of potential. I am a bit gutted that I did not run the list from 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011, as the summer hat-trick by ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES (won at 25/1, 8/1 and 5/2) would surely have taken the list into profit for the season!

That introduction brings me to suggesting 3 horses to follow for the 2011-12 Jumps season, and they are:-
FLAT OUT – Willie Mullins unexposed 2nd-season chaser was last seen leading the Irish “Arkle” field into the 2nd-last fence and looking fully in command. That field included REALT DUBH (subsequently 3rd in the “Arkle” at the Festival to Captain Chris) and NOBLE PRINCE (won the Jewson Novice Chase over 2m5f at the Festival). It should be remembered that FLAT OUT was 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in what was only his 2nd hurdle race; the 1st four finishers being Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, and Oscar Whisky; that was some performance and this has turned-out to be spectacular form!
Currently, FLAT OUT is rated on a very lenient handicap chasing mark of OR146 (Realt Dubh is now on OR157, and Noble Prince is on OR160). Mullins has him entered for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham next month, for which his odds are currently at 14/1. Myself, I would not be surprised to see this horse follow a similar path to that of Exotic Dancer in 2006/07, mopping-up top handicaps en-route to a Festival appearance.

GHIZAO- Paul Nicholls targeted this horse at the “Arkle” very early in the 2010-11 season. His win at Cheltenham in November 2010 was in a fast time and he had subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris well behind him that day. They met again at Newbury, and again (despite a 10lb penalty) GHIZAO put Captain Chris in his place. They next met in the “Arkle” itself and, as a vocal supporter of GHIZAO from that November race, he was carrying one of my larger wagers. It went wrong when at the top o’the hill, GHIZAO took-off half-a-stride too soon causing his lower abdomen to land on top of the fence. That mistake knocked the stuffing from him and he coasted thereon to the finish. He was next seen at Aintree where he met Finians Rainbow (2nd in the Arkle btn 2¾ lengths) at levels and, but for colliding with that horse at the 2nd-last and coming-off worst, he may well have won. Clearly, Captain Chris was a better horse in the Spring than he was in the previous autumn, but whether he is better than GHIZAO (should the latter get a clear round) is debateable. Paul Nicholls has already pencilled in races like the Tingle Creek en-route to taking-in the Queen Mother Champion Chase next March, and I reckon he will prove worthy. Currently 20/1 for the QMCC, he’s due to start this campaign in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on 1st November and we should see an improvement in his jumping.

My final horse of the 3 took a lot of deliberation. Having already nominated an Irish horse in FLAT OUT, I wanted to include another trained on this side of the Irish Sea. The Irish, going into the 2011-12 season, have perhaps their strongest “squad” for many a year; Noble Prince, Bostons Angel, and Hurricane Fly are just the tip of an iceberg of talent. Given the furore over the revised “whip” rules that is causing consternation amongst jockeys and punters, the horses that seem best-placed to benefit are those that love to bowl-along in front running & jumping for the pleasure of it and so requiring the minimum use of the whip. As such, my final choice for my 3-to-Follow is:-

WISHFUL THINKING trained by Phil Hobbs. Altho’ he was well-held by Noble Prince in the “Jewson” at the Festival, his two subsequent victories at Aintree and Punchestown showed him to be thoroughly top-class. This was especially so the way he put Medermit to the sword at Aintree. Given his style of running, a possible excuse for his defeat at the hands of Noble Prince was that he went-off too fast on ground that was probably too quick for him. Remember, he failed to act on similar going at Aintree in April 2010 and when the word “soft” appears in the going description he has won 5 from 7 (2nd on his debut NH Flat race, and fell at the 1st fence on his novice chase debut). Altho’ he has never run beyond 2m5f, he has only lacked the stamina to win when beaten by Noble Prince, so 3-mile should be within his scope. He could just be capable of leading all-the-way (like Desert Orchid) in the King George on Boxing Day for which he is currently 14/1.

No selections for the blog today despite there being an attractive meeting at Haydock.

Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online. If anyone has any problems with it please tell me.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Horseracing needs to get its act together

2011-10-24T10:18:00.000+01:00

The 365th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a mess horseracing is in!
On Saturday morning, for the 1st time in ages, I watched the whole of Morning Line as the latest review by the BHA of the regulations regarding “whip” use were discussed. From that discussion and a “demonstration” of the use of the whip on a member of the public (if a whip is going to be demonstrated on tv, do it properly), it seemed to me that there are huge holes in the position from which the jockeys are taking.

Firstly, this is not solely a jockey problem – it is British Horseracing’s problem and involves ALL who take part or have an interest: owners, trainers, breeders, bookmakers, racecourse operators, valets, tack suppliers, and (of course) the racing public. And it is that racing public that (in my opinion) are the most important as if horseracing loses the confidence of that racing public in the sport, then horseracing in Britain will collapse like a pack of cards. Other countries, especially France and Ireland, will be happy to fill the gap left, and modern technology means that racing abroad can be watched and wagered on without much difficulty.

Horseracing as a whole needs to get it’s act together and the factions involved need to stop taking pot-shots at each other. Horseracing also needs to link-up with other sports and recreations that employ the use of animals. Animal lovers need to understand that groups like Animal Aid that hold extreme views will not be satisfied until every human in Britain is a vegan and no animals interact with humans in any way, be it horses for riding or a pet goldfish in a tank or bacon in a sandwich. There has to be a concerted effort to involve all animal lovers into acting together. There is no point in loving animals if (in the long run) humans have no interaction with them, and the general public need to understand that.

Onto horseracing, and I had a selection yesterday in GULLIBLE GORDON who ran well enough, but wasn’t good enough. It was almost certainly due to not having had a previous run as he was looking tired and his jumping was skewed from about 6 or 7 fences out. He is a gutsy performer tho’ and stayed-on, but had nothing more to give from the 2nd-last fence. The winner was GONE TO LUNCH who was able to recapture some of the level of form from his past (was 2nd in the Scottish National in April 2010 off OR140 - raced yesterday off OR122). If he can hold his form he should win again when reassessed, but that’s a big “if”. In 2nd was INTAC who ran a cracker of a race considering it was the furthest he’d ever run in public and had not shown any form in 4 previous attempts at trips beyond 2m5f, and had only won once from 6 attempts at 2m5f. What this race showed was that in races beyond 2m6f, horses which bowl-along in front galloping at their own pace without need of cajoling are still involved when the racing gets serious in the final half-mile. Other horses, such as Frosted Grape and Drybrook Bedouin were never able to get into the race and never would. Why? As they need constant cajoling to keep-up and, with only 8 uses of a “corrector” allowed, horses like these are destined for an early retirement.

No selections for the blog today as only flat racing available.

Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Gordon! Don't be gullible.

2011-10-23T09:26:00.000+01:00

The 364th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday – however, perhaps I should have had a wager given the results. I said I liked TATANIANO at Chepstow, but thought that his odds would be too short to represent value – and he had an SP of 5/2, incredible! Honest, I thought he’d start at 5/4 for this race and altho’ 9/4 was available when I wrote the blog yesterday I didn’t think readers would be able to get more than a “tenner” on him (if that) at those odds. Just goes to show that you have to keep your targets fixed during the day and step-in when the odds suggest that there is value. Remember, you don’t have to strike a bet, discretion lies with you.

The big story of the day was MASTER MINDED running well below form at Aintree. I did write on Friday that Master Minded was a bit of a character sometimes, and he certainly was not in the mood yesterday. Full marks tho’, go to Peter Bowen and connections of PURE FAITH who pushed eventual winner Albertas Run all the way to the final fence where he made a mistake which put paid to his chances – he still took 2nd place and £10,685 in prize-money. He is likely to be seen out at Aintree again today in a novice chase.

At Doncaster, CAMELOT trained in Ireland by AP O’Brien, took the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy and now heads the2012 Derby betting market at odds of 3/1 (which are bonkers). He showed a tremendous turn-of-foot to win this and is clearly an exceptional horse.

There is a very interesting h’cap chase at Wincanton at 2:50 over 3m3f. Last years winner Gullible Gordon returns and he is sure to be fit for this being sent here by Paul Nicholls. He carried 11st 8lb to win this last year, leading all-the-way. He has top-weight which is just another 4lb and he is the one to beat. Ballycarney does not look like he’ll stay much beyond 3-mile in a strong run race. Ballyvesey was 2nd in this race last year and meets Gullible Gordon on the same terms so its hard to see him reversing the places. Cullahill is another doubtful stayer beyond 3-mile, and whereas Templer will stay the trip, he struggles above OR128. Ethiopia will run his usual good race, but I feel the handicapper has him now, as is Frosted Grape. Of the others, Gone To Lunch needs to show he’s not “gone” at the game; Fortification is the 1st runner for trainer Kieran Burke and if he’s fit he could go very well off OR115 given he won a Class 2 chase off OR123 at Kempton in Dec 2009. As for Intac, this trip is a step into the unknown. Lastly, we have Drybrook Bedouin who is a horse I like as he stays all day long, but he’s up 11lb for a win last April and that’s tough. On reflection GULLIBLE GORDON at 6/1 (Ladbrokes) looks good value to repeat his win in the race of last season. The only doubt I have is the 7lb claimer who rides, David Pritchard, but that’s why GULLIBLE GORDON is 6/1 and not 7/2 fav.

Selection
Wincanton 2:50, GULLIBLE GORDON, 1pt win at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Master Minded to show who is boss

2011-10-22T11:15:00.002+01:00

The 363rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

Today, we have 3 jumps meetings at Aintree, Chepstow and Stratford, and two flat meetings at Doncaster and Newbury. All-in-all, the day is set for a tremendous spectacle of horseracing.

Unfortunately, at Aintree (due, in no fault to the course) in what is the first major meeting of this jumps season, only 3 horse’s line-up for the feature race of the afternoon, the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. Now, I know MASTER MINDED is a class act but he is not unbeatable; and Albertas Run may be the one to beat in the “Ryanair“ come the Festival in March, but he is not normally at his best this early in the season. Both of these horses have the Festival next March as their prime targets – and so, this race at this time of year is when they should be best taken on. It’s obvious, isn’t it?
Fair play to Peter Bowen entering the outclassed novice Pure Faith to take the 3rd place money. However, I expect the Aintree management are wondering why the likes of Somersby, Mad Max, I’m So Lucky, Captain Cee Bee, Kalahari King, Tartak and others, are not here. None of them are ever going to be likely to win at the Festival in March, but they could claim a top race here when the best are at their weakest and, what’s more, race conditions are in their favour. It is very disappointing.
I cannot find a wager at Aintree today. I can see a few speculative “punts”, but nothing that I want to put my money on.

At Chepstow, I like Tataniano, but odds will be short.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Saturday lookahead

2011-10-21T09:43:00.000+01:00

The 362nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Two selections for the blog yesterday with RAPID INCREASE taking 3rd place and the each-way spoils. Advised at 10/1 (SP 8/1), that’s 1.50pts profit (at quarter-odds).
The winner Horsham Lad had the benefit of a very lenient mark, and the front-3 pulled a long way clear of the remainder in what looked a race run at a testing gallop. All-in-all, a good effort from the selection and he goes back into my private alert list. If he reappears over an extra couple of furlongs he will be very interesting.
Unfortunately, the other selection, GOING WRONG, was 4th and missed out on a place only for lack of fitness and so 2pts lost there, meaning an overall ½pt loss on the day. On reflection, this looks a strong race (despite my comments in the blog yesterday) and GOING WRONG is one I’ll keep an eye out for when he runs next, especially if he steps up in trip to 2m4f+, and it could pay to keep an eye out all the 1st-4 home in this race.

Just a solitary jump meeting at Fakenham today and tho’ there are a couple of decent handicaps being run there, the fields are small and the races could get tactical.

Looking ahead to Saturday, and the meeting at Aintree is the first major meeting of the jumps season with the highlight being the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. MASTER MINDED stands out in this race and I would be very surprised if anything in the race can challenge him. That said, he is his own worst enemy and can idle when in front which, given the new “whip” rules could make things interesting after the final fence.
The opening hurdle over 2m1f is one that should be watched as recent winners have done extremely well in follow-up races. From the early entries, one I like the look of is HIGHWAY CODE who is sent by Richard Lee, and he won the race in 2006.
The Veteran’s handicap over 3m1f could be interesting. I have been following DOUBLE DIZZY for a couple of seasons as when he’s in the mood he can run a big race, and this looks his sort of opportunity.
There are a couple of my old fav’s entered later in the afternoon; in the 4:05 SOUND STAGE makes his seasonal debut. He was given only 3-runs last season, but each was a solid effort, and I’m sure Caroline Keevil will have this horse fit to do the business. Then, we have another from last season’s Horses to Follow list – PICKAMUS.
The meeting at Chepstow opens with a 3-mile maiden hurdle that has been won by some decent horses in recent years, so another race to have your notebook handy. Later on, the Persian War Novices Hurdle over 2m4f looks a cracker and it is a race Paul Nichols has won 3 times in the past 4 years. However, I will probably be looking for the winner of the 4:50, a 2m½f class 2 h’cap chase.
The other jumps meeting on Saturday is at Stratford and it has a couple of interesting handicaps.

I will be watching the Doncaster meeting, but I doubt I will be having a wager there. I am more interested in the flat meeting at Newbury which has, what looks to be, a cracking card.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

From last season HTF list, 2 selections at Carlisle

2011-10-20T11:01:00.002+01:00

The 361st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but perhaps I should have been a bit more adventuraous with RESTEZEN D’ARMOR. He ran out a very easy winner yesterday as most of the field just did not perform and , with the benefit of hindsight, the morning odds of 2/1 were generous. Charlie Longsdon continued his tremendous form with a double by also winning with VINCITORE. I think this was a good result for form students and, despite there being only 4 runners in the race and the front 2 pulled clear, the runner-up was the Nicholls trained Aldertune. He may have been called a few names for being caught for pace at the business end, but Aldertune is well thought of by Nicholls and is a solid yardstick. VINCITORE won his previous race at Worcester on 23rd September and, so far 3 winners have won NTO (next time out) from that race (from 9 runners). Lastly, I did say TARVINI was looking like his old self and was worthy of an eachway wager and he duly ran 2nd at Fontwell.

Onto today and we have a useful looking meeting at Carlisle with another at Ludlow. Nothing takes my eye at Ludlow, but some of the races look interesting – so perhaps a day for the notebook there.
Carlisle has a couple that I want to be on today. In the 3:55, a class 3 h’cap chase over 3m & 110 yards, it is RAPID INCREASE that jumps out at me. He was on my Horses to Follow list last season when he ran just 3 times, but on the latest of those runs he won very easily at Fontwell over 3m2f. This trip may be on the short side, but Carlisle is a stiff track and this horse could be OR130+; as such odds of 10/1 (with Corals) looks great and with 4 places (16 go to post, barring non-runners) he looks one to be on. He has needed a run in the past, but O’Neill has had a few winners so I’m hoping he will be fit for this.

Next is another of last years Horses to Follow list that never actually ran – GOING WRONG. He is in the 5:00 at Carlisle which is a beginners chase over 2-mile. This trip may be on the short side for him too, but he should have the speed to cope having been a decent hurdler from just a few runs. As last as last February, he was Ferdy Murphy’s horse for the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival so he is clearly well thought of at home at at 10/1 (available generally) he is another decent looking opportunity in a race which (outside the fav) has little depth.

Selections:
Carlisle 3:55, RAPID INCREASE, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Corals)
Carlisle 5:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Shares available in CHILWORTH LASS

2011-10-19T09:30:00.001+01:00

The 360th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday with CAPTAIN DASH being a non-runner.

With horseracing being poor yesterday, I took a look at the Trainers Stats for Jump Racing over the past 4 years to see if I could find any interesting pointers. This is a “work in progress” and something that I will add to “as & when” - so, don’t think this is the last of the trainer-form blogs. I will not be looking at the likes of Nicholls, Henderson etc as the horses from those stables are well researched anyway. What I’m looking for are trainers who regularly have 20+ winners during the winter who have greater than expected strike-rates with either hurdlers, or chasers, or before or after Xmas and the like.

David Arbuthnot
He does not have many horses in the stable (just 19 in 2010-11) but he had a 30% strike-rate for the season. Last season, he did particularly well with his hurdlers but that was unusual as he is consistently finding winners with his chasers. In the past 4 seasons he’s had 21 winners from 74 chases (28%) and considering not one was a 1st-time-out (FTO) winner (0 from 7) he’s a man to note, especially in chase races of class 3 or lower.

Kim Bailey
Currently undergoing a resurgence since moving to Thorndale Farm in Sept 2006. Many won’t know that Kim Bailey has won all of the “Big-3” races; the Grand National (1990: Mr Frisk), the Gold Cup (1995: Master Oats) and the Champion Hurdle (1995: Alderbrook). Bailey had his best season in years in 2010-11, but he seems particularly adept at placing his chasers; 14 wins from 59 chase runs and 6 of his 12 chasers won FTO. He should be especially noted when he sends one for a class 3 chase (or lower) at trips of 2m4f or longer (11 wins from 49 runs; +£41.58 to £1).

Next, a plug for the White Diamond Racing Partnership of which I am a member. This was formed to own and race the 3yo juvenile hurdler CHILWORTH LASS who is in training with Sheena West on the South Downs just outside Brighton. Sheena has been firing in the winners this autumn including a hat-trick with ALFRAAMSEY another 3yo hurdler that (like Chilworth Lass) was bought out of the Mick Channon yard. The vibes are good about Chilworth Lass and her debut over hurdles is anticipated to be in November. There are still a couple of shares left in the syndicate so if you are interested please contact whitediamondracing@gmail.com and Tom Castle or Stefan Fellows will sort out the details. I’ve a good feeling about this horse as she is tenacious and game and reminds me of Katchit (oh, were she to prove as good!).

A couple of jump meetings today, but both Fontwell and Worcester are suffering from good-to-firm ground. Racing at Fontwell looks uncompetitive although one from my private alert list – TARVINI – looks like he’s recapturing form of old and he could be an eachway wager in the hurdle at 4:30. So, the focus is on Worcester.

Paul Nicholls sends ALDERTUNE for the 3:15 which is a novice chase and while the Charlie Longsdon runner Vincitore must be respected, Nicholls thinks a lot of Aldertune and, in coming here, he must be considered one of his better novice chasers. Unfortunately, current odds of 11/10 (I was hoping for 9/4+) are too short and not value.

Charlie Longsdon sends one off my private alert list to Worcester – RESTEZEN D’ARMOR for the 4:20. Longsdon won this race last year with Sir Ian and, by comparison, the two horses are complete opposites – Sir Ian being a bold front-runner and Restezen D’Armor a hold-up horse; so-much-so that sometimes it looks like he’s given up! Another interesting one in the race is Rate Of Knots who looks extremely well handicapped on OR116. The doubt about him is the ground as he’s looked best suited by soft or worse, so why he’s running here today is debateable (have just learned he’s a non-runner). King Ozzy will no-doubt help make the pace and trainer Lawney Hill is 3 from 7 here with chasers and that makes his odds of 9/2 (Betfred) fair for this 6-runner race. It is hard to see RESTEZEN D’ARMOR being beaten now, but odds of 2/1 are not value (I’m wanting 5/2+).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The BHA vs PJA

2011-10-18T09:22:00.003+01:00

The 359th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but it was an informative day for horseracing.

Firstly, many thanks to the 21 readers of the blog who ticked one of the reaction boxes. According to my stats page, yesterday’s page was viewed (and hopefully read) by 41 visitors. There were a total of 499 “hits” on the blog, of which 287 came from 2 websites (one in the USA and one in Vietnam). This couple of websites have been flooding my blog with “pings” for about 3 weeks and I don’t know why or how to stop it. The balance of 171 “hits” is the usual background noise of the internet – search engines (I assume) pinging the blog when one of the labels is mentioned in a search on google or yahoo etc.

The BHA (British Horseracing Authority) met the PJA (Professional Jockeys Association) yesterday to discuss the implications of the whip rules. I expect that the whip rules are here to stay and there will be little (if any) respite. What I would expect there to be is a re-dressing of the penalties for infringements. Something along the lines of:-
Whip-use +1 (ie, 6 strikes in final furlong): jky caution & fine of 50% of riding fee/winnings;
Whip-use +2: Jockey gets 2-day ban & 75% fine;
Whip-use +3: Jockey gets 3-day ban & 100% fine;
Whip-use +4 and over: Jockey gets a day for every over-use of the whip.

At the moment, I feel the punishments levied have been draconian and unless the punishment is tempered then there will be trouble ahead.

The jump racing at Exeter is poorly attended today, probably due to the good-to-firm going. There is only one horse from my Alert List running, and it is CAPTAIN DASH in the 3:40 (won on Friday in a canter). There is a front-runner in the race who could set a fast early pace - Run Along Boy - and he may take some catching. It is a pity there are only 6 running as the rank outsider - Consulate - looked like he was recapturing some form LTO and he'll be staying-on. All-in-all, I cannot have CAPTAIN DASH at 13/8 as I think he’s more of a 9/4 chance. Being a hold-up horse early-on, he will likely trade much longer in-running and I may leave a small wager on after the off (say at 9.00) and see if it’s taken.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Please register your interest - thanks!

2011-10-17T09:47:00.000+01:00

The 358th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I wish I had posted up the couple that were on my alert list - as they both won!

For those who follow me via twitter (you can find me at @wayward_lad) you will know that I posted the following in Saturday evening at 10:39pm (just before watching Match Of The Day): “Sheena West sends well-regarded ALFRAAMSEY to Kempton for the opener tomorrow, and it's hard not to see him winning.” And win he did at odds of 15/8.

Later in the afternoon on Sunday, the horse I told you of in last Thursday’s blog – De Valira – won at Cork over a trip of 2m4f. Being ridden by Ruby Walsh probably helped, as did the extra couple of furlongs (ran over 2m2f on Thursday), and he won at the rewarding odds of 11/2 (opened at 13/2).

I may not post selections or write a daily blog – but (and I’ve written this before) there is plenty of information on this blog to help find you winning wagers. If you like having a wager on horseracing, then you should make this blog a regular port of call.

Could I ask a favour of readers of this blog?
I am trying to ascertain how many of the “hits” on the blog are actual visitors who read it, and how many are just search engines that “ping” the blog. Could you please “tick” one of the reaction boxes that are below this blog (just above the comments section)? Also, would anyone prefer to have the blog emailed to them when it is published online rather than have to visit it via the internet (I appreciate that some employers restrict internet access) and does anyone know a “tool” that I can add onto the blog that would allow visitors to register for such a service? The notification tool on this blog only tells visitors who register when there is a change on the blog, it does not tell them what the change is.

The meeting at Plumpton is disappointing today, so no selections.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

BALTHAZAR KING another winner for the blog

2011-10-15T22:14:00.000+01:00

The 357th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A good day for the blog yesterday with a good winner in BATHAZAR KING at an SP of 11/4 (advised at 7/2). The selection looked very leniently treated on OR136 based on his run at this meeting last year when 3rd to Chicago Grey (Balthazar King was 14lb better-off, for a 6-length beating) and he probably would have been only beaten a length or two when they met at level weights last November and Chicago Grey fell at the 2nd-last fence. I rate BATHAZAR KING at 146 on last season’s form, and he won like a 146 horse running-off OR136 today – he had a lot in-hand.

EDGEBRIAR, my other selection, was a disappointment. He was very keen early-on and basically ran out of energy so that, by the top of the hill on the 2nd circuit, when the leader Billie Magern quickened-up the pace EDGEBRIAR had nothing left in the tank and quickly folded. Not sure what to make of this; was the horse fit enough? He should have been, so perhaps there was another reason. As for Billie Magern, he was the horse I considered the “danger” to my selection and perhaps I should have advised a split-stake and had ½pt on both – but it is always easier in hindsight!

ONE FOR JOULES was running a big race till falling at the final flight. She would not have won, but I am sure she would have been 2nd, albeit well beaten by the impressive winner Kalaan.

Onto Ascot, and how Fame And Glory was sent off at odds of 3/1 when he was sent off to win the Ascot Gold Cup in June – just 4 months ago – as the 11/8 fav, is beyond me. Yes, he had looked disappointing in his latest run in the Irish St Leger, but he was proven on this course and on this going and was no worse off at the weights than at Royal Ascot in June. It was a lost opportunity.

FRANKEL was duly crowned the best racehorse in training in the World following his victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Apparently, Timeform have rated him at 143, and Racing Post Ratings at 139 (their highest ever rating since inception in 1988). Me? If 2nd-placed Excelebration ran to his OR126 rating (and I don’t think he did) then FRANKEL would be rated OR134. FRANKEL went into the race with a rating of OR135, and I don’t think he had to beat that to win today, nor did he look like he had a few pounds up his sleeve.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

2 wins from 3 selections yesterday

2011-10-15T10:55:00.000+01:00

The 356th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A great day for the blog yesterday, I hope you all took note of the 3 horses that I put up:
2:45, THAT’LL DO – won well at odds of 15/8 (advised at 11/4)
3:55, TRAFFIC ARTICLE – also won well at the tremendous odds of 8/1 (was 5/s in the morning)
5:05 SHADOW DANCER – ran a stinker, maybe ground was too quick for him.

Due to these results and all my recent blogs on the jumps racing which has seen me put-up winners at 14/1, 9/2, 8/1 and 15/8 from a handful of selections, I am going to change my advice policy. From now on ALL named horses will be posted-up as selections and included within my stats on Betting League and Tip Exchange.

TRAFFIC ARTICLE came off my private Alert List and this list is already proving profitable. I know (without bragging) that I can spot improving and under-rated horses over the jumps that go on and win NTO (next-time-out) at decent odds. My alert list will provide the backbone of my selections this jumps season.

Onto today, and we have Champions Day at Ascot. The Champion Stakes itself has been a good race for me recently as I have been a follower of TWICE OVER and he’s done me proud. He has shown himself as good as ever this season, and I believe that he handles this Ascot 10-furlong track and trip (based on his close 2nd in the Prince Of Wales to Byword in 2010). As such, current odds of 12/1 are in my opinion far too long, and I find it hard to see him finishing outside the 1st-3 in a race that has been his target all year.

At Cheltenham, the opening 3-mile novice hurdle looks competitive. I’ll not advise a selection in the race, but if the Paul Nicholls trained ROUND TOM get’s longer than 8/1 then I’ll be having a small wager on him, probably a back-to-lay (back at 9.20, lay-off at 4.60 to double investment).

Next on the card, the 2m4f class 2 h’cap chase, has cut-up due to the quick going and only 8 go to post. There will be some pace on from Billie Magern and he could take some catching as he stays 3-mile, but I think he will be caught as the pace and going should suit last year’s winner EDGEBRIAR who comes into this race just 1lb higher than the rating he won off last year. At 13/2, he looks a value wager.

The class 2 novice hurdle has one from my alert list in ONE FOR JOULES. He won easily LTO with 11st 10lb on his back and tho’ she may be outclassed by these today, she is proven race-fit and has the form in the book whereas the others still have it to prove. I think odds of 6/1 are fair value.

There are more non-runners in the 3m class 2 h’cap chase and that means the odds have contracted somewhat. But I feel that BALTHAZAR KING is on a lenient mark of OR136, not only that but he has winning form at Cheltenham and will love this going. At odds of 7/2 he looks value, but only just.

I cannot see a worthy selection at Kelso.

Selections:
Cheltenham 2:40, EDGEBRIAR, 1pt win at 13/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go best odds guaranteed)
Cheltenham 3:50, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win at 7/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Richard Hughes quits over new whip rules

2011-10-14T12:09:00.000+01:00

The 355th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

The devastating news that top jockey Richard Hughes has handed-in his license after receiving a 10-day ban (his 2nd ban of the week on top of a 4-day ban he received on Monday) for infringing the new whip rules, is mind boggling.

This is the same Richard Hughes who has received just 2, 1-day bans for riding infringements in the past 3 years (Frankie Dettori, take note).

I think the penalties for whip infringements are severe, too severe in my opinion. The rules have completely changed the way horses are ridden and (in some ways) are at-odds with the rules of racing which have applied for the past couple of hundred years. I would have though a 3-month probationary period for the rules with only 1-day bans applied for infringements would have allowed everyone to learn and appreciate the way forward. It would also have allowed the rules to be tweaked without receiving criticism for going backwards.

What I do know is that I reckon I have lost money on at least one wager this week on a horse that should have won but who’s jockey did not use their whip on the run-in for fear of infringing the rules. What it means for punters is that we have to value resolution and gameness in horses a lot more – quirky horses will be too risky to follow.

Another unfortunate result of Richard Hughes’ actions is that he’s gone “live” on radio and not done horseracing in general a good deed. He was clearly too emotional about yesterday’s events and he should have taken his complaints directly to the BHA and aired them in that private sphere, not in public. If he’d received short-shrift from the BHA, then he should have gone public, but then he would have possibly been able to provide a more reasoned argument to the general public. Instead, it is now “them & us”, and the general public are thinking jockeys want to be allowed to whip horses at the races – and this only months after the headlines were grabbed by an elephant being hit with a broom by his handler.

I fear that horseracing in the UK will soon go the way of greyhound coursing and fox-hunting.

Onto today’s action, and we have the opening meeting of the jumps season at Cheltenham. But first, I was right yesterday about DE VALIRA who held onto 3rd spot for the place money. This looked a top novice chase, and I would put the 1st-2 finishers into your notebook – LUCKY WILLIAM and WHODOYOUTHINK.

The racing at Cheltenham has cut-up probably due to the going being on the quick side. There are a couple I like the look of, but the odds about them are not great, so I’m not offering them up as selections. They are:-
2:45, THAT’LL DO – could be one of Paul Nicholls better novice chasers, he’s 11/4 with Corals.
3:55, TRAFFIC ARTICLE – Elliot’s chasers cannot be overlooked, he’s 5/1 with Vic Chandler.
5:05 SHADOW DANCER – I was impressed by this one LTO, he’s 6/1 generally.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

De Valira could show young-bloods the way home

2011-10-13T10:37:00.000+01:00

The 354th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s selection – ARCHIE’S WISH – was a non-runner.
In hindsight, it was probably another bullet missed as I very much doubt that he’d have been able to win the race yesterday as Charlie Longsdon continues to keep his stable runners in top-form and his entry in the race – Wide Receiver – won the race very easily.

My other “tentative” selection was TRES CORONAS, but he got no run at all as he reared in the stalls and was left at the start – possibly due to his jockey being slow to remove the hood placed over the horse’s head to coax him to enter the stalls. As such, put a line thru’ this formline and ignore it.

There are a couple of interesting meetings at Wincanton and Uttoxeter, but there is also a quality midweek meeting in Ireland at Punchestown. I cannot see anything of interest at Wincanton, tho’ at Uttoxeter the 2-mile h’cap chase at 4:40 looks a possibility. I thought FARLEIGH HOUSE was a shade unlucky not to come out on-top and win on Tuesday at Huntingdon, as he looked to have the race at his mercy after the final flight (it was a hurdle race). From that, we know the horse is fit and in good spirits and, at this stage of the season, that’s a big plus.

At Punchestown, there is a competitive Grade 3 novice chase over 2m2f at 3:45 and DE VALIRA has looked a lot more like realising the potential of his novice hurdle days as a chaser (had a long period of absence due to injury). He may be a 9yo but he has bags of class and looked like winning LTO approaching the last fence till caught for pace. The extra couple of furlongs today will be more to his favour and he is better than a 10/1 chance, as I’d have him at 4/1 for this. I’m not sure he’ll win as both Shinrock Paddy and Rathlin have similar qualities and they are younger, but I’m sure DE VALIRA will be placed in the 1st-3, so perhaps a “place-only” wager on the exchanges.

No need to push the boat out yet as there is a good meeting at Cheltenham tomorrow and Saturday and there will surely be some good wagering opportunities.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Invest in what you know about

2011-10-12T10:06:00.002+01:00

The 353rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

“Invest in what you know about”
Wise words from the “Off Piste” column of the Weekender provided by James Fanshawe when interviewd by John O’Hara. They originated from Lord White of Hull and although they were directed at stock market investing, they are just as valuable for “investors” in horse-racing. If you have not taken the time to appraise all the horses in a race, don’t invest in it.

I was also taken-in by the words Fanshawe said about his filly Spacious being his biggest disappointment when losing by a short-head at Ascot last summer. I was also "hit" by that loss; she was the subject that day of one of my largest ever wagers, and it marked the beginning of a losing sstreak for me.

No selections for the blog yesterday and, judging by how the results went, I probably dodged a bullet not advising anything.

The opening race was the 1st under the new “whip” rules over jumps and I felt that these new rules affected the result. Why? Because Farleigh House jumped the final flight as much the strongest horse and in front yet, his rider never once used his whip on the horse on the run-in. Not so eventual winner Tayarat, who had led for much of the race at his own pace. His rider was able to give the horse a couple of inducements on the run-in to which he responded well – and from looking a tired “also-ran” he quickly gained a winning advantage. We all have a lot to learn, and it could be an expensive winter if we don’t learn fast.

WALLS WAY may have gone close had he not fallen at the 2nd-last but, probably, the reason for the fall was that he was tired and so I doubt he’d have won anyway. BEDOUIN BAY looked impressive in winning the 20f+ novice hurdle, and he’s one going in my notebook.

What was most interesting was how much the Paul Nicholls runner SPOCK was beaten in the novice chase. Race winner OSTLAND enjoyed a return to novice company with an emphatic win, but SPOCK was disappointing. That he started the 3/1 fav and finished well ahead of a couple of race-fit rivals suggests that he met a very decent horse in OSTLAND.

As I wrote yesterday, not many horses stay 3-mile plus and as I expected, the 3 market leaders - Lost Glory, Only Witness or Winter Alchemy –filled 3 of the 1st-4 places. Jockey, AP McCoy, gave an exemplary display to win this race. He reserved a single use of the whip for his mount LOST GLORY on the 2nd-stride after the final flight, and then he showed his strength with hands’n’heels to push his horse to victory. Winter Alchemy was caught on the line, and I feel the form of this race is strong and can be followed.

I won’t be looking at the “flat” much from now on but one from my private alert list runs today at Nottingham in the 3:15 – TRES CORONAS. I’ve had him on my list since he was a fast-finishing 2nd to Granny McFee at Chester in May. I am surprised his trainer TD Barron has not employed Graham Gibbons for the ride but, even so, he looks worthy of a small ew wager at odds of 14/1 over this trip and on ground that should not inconvenience him (he did not handle the soft/heavy LTO).

There is a jumps meeting at Wetherby and at this meeting last year I advised a wager on ARCHIE’S WISH in the 2:50. He was 2nd that day off OR81 and then ran well NTO off OR84; so to go into today’s race on OR75 on ground he should appreciate looks good, and I rate him better than the 6/1 chance he currently is. The 7lb claiming jockey Joe Colliver is a bit of an unknown, but he’s won 3 races from 18 rides. The Bobby Renton H’Cap Chase probably needs a bit more thought, and if I have a selection then I will post it later.

Selection
Wetherby 2:50, ARCHIE’S WISH, 1pt win at 6/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Decent jumping action at Huntingdon

2011-10-11T13:31:00.001+01:00

The 352nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

There is just the one jumps meeting today at Huntingdon, and it's an interesting one too, and not just as it's the first jumps meeting using the new "whip" rules. The opening race is a brain teaser as both Phil Hobbs - Serious Choice - and Ferdy Murphy - Capricornus - have good strikerates at the Cambridgeshire track. Cumbrian trainer Nicky Richards usually does not travel well with horses sent far from home base, but he's won 2 from 6 here (both were chases) and he has the 3/1 fav Parc Des Princes. Those odds look fair about the fav and he would be the one I would be on for small money.

There has been a bit of money for Sambelucky probably on-account of trainer Keith Reveley having a good strike-rate here. However, I prefer WALLS WAY who was beaten by a good one LTO. Not a horse to take a short price on, odds of 7/2 are fair.

The 2m4f & 110yards trip is a step into the unknown for all the novice hurdlers in the 3:20. Of the field, I made a note of TROVARE when he won LTO and he should stay this trip.

When I woke this morning, I was going to oppose SPOCK in the 3:50 as I thought, being from the Paul Nicholls stable, he's be 7/4 or shorter. However, he is 3/1 with Vic Chandler and you cannot really oppose a chaser from the Nicholls stable in October. It is debateable whether Ostland can give him 14lbs. Firm Order races off his hurdle rating of OR122 yet this is his chase debut. Points Of View should stay 3-mile and he looked progressive earlier this summer (was outclassed LTO). For me, it is Peter Bowen's only runner NATURAL ACTION who fell LTO at the final fence. Bowen makes the long 241 mile trip here for this and the trip and going should suit this one. Odds of 11/2 available generally, look more than fair.

Not many horses stay 3-mile plus and so races like the 4:20 over 3m2f can sometime present easy pickings. This race tho' looks too tough to call and should fall to one of the market leaders of Lost Glory, Only Witness or Winter Alchemy. Given the odds, Winter Alchemy at 13/2 (Vic Chandler and Stan James) looks the most value.

Nothing jumps out at me as a firm selection (I wrote a similar statement last week, and had 2 winners from 2 named horses at 14/1 and 9/2). Will I rue those words?

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Chepstow chasers

2011-10-08T12:08:00.001+01:00

The 351st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

There is a good meeting on the flat at Newmarket today with a couple of Group 1 races for 2yo’s and the historic “Cesarewitch” handicap run over 2m2f. I have never been a big fan of the Cesarewitch, so I’m not even going to contemplate making a selection in this race of 34 runners. I am also opposed to the running of the Group 1 races, the Middle Park Stakes over 6f and the Dewhurst over 7f, on the same day. These races should be split and run on separate days with perhaps 14-days between them. One race will, over time, suffer – and it will most likely be the Middle Park Stakes.

There is a meeting on the flat at York, but this is another I will pass over.

So, I will concentrate on the two “jumps” meetings at Hexham and Chepstow. At Hexham, I was going to go for QUITE THE MAN in the opener as he ran a cracker of a race on his chase debut. However, there is no value in his current odds of 6/5, in fact I’d rather have a wager on L’Eldorado at 3/1 as there was little to split these two over hurdles when they met. There is an interesting h’cap chase at 3:15 over 2m4f &110yds and I like it as the markets look weak. Present To You has not looked anywhere near as good a chaser as hurdler, and this could be his last chance. Beneficial Reform makes his chase debut under rules, and he has not shown much over hurdles to warrant special merit. As such, with the going in his favour, I can see STAGECOACH AMBER making all here and taking the race at 4/1 (He was 13/2 as I wrote this earlier, but now Beneficial Reform is a non-runner).

Chepstow has a cracking novice chase at 4:10 even if it has only 4 runners. CUE CARD makes his much-awaited chase debut, however SILVINIACO CONTI was rated a better hurdler and comes into this the 5/4 2nd-fav. Personally, I would be on SILVINIACO CONTI as Paul Nicholls always has his novice chasers primed to do the business and I think the 3rd-fav MICHAEL FLIPS will follow him home as he has already proven he can jumps a fence in Oct 2010, and this 2m4f trip will suit him.

The next on the card, a h’cap hurdle, sees another Nicholls horse Domtaline as fav, but I think this horse still has a lot to prove and cannot be seen as value at current odds of 11/10. Given his “potential” this race is a no-bet one for me, unless you want to take on the fav. The 2nd-fav Jubail looks like he prefers going right-handed to left-handed so he’s not the one. MR HARMOOSH was unlucky not to win LTO and is bang-in-form for Sheena West, and he is the one I’d be on.

The 3-mile h’cap chase at 5:50 is the highlight of the Chepstow meeting. Emma Lavelle has won this race twice in the past 3 years so Ouzbeck, for her, must be respected. However, I reckon he wants further than 3-mile these days. I don’t think Templer can win off a rating higher than OR128, so he’s not for me. Born Again and Swincombe Rock both have to prove to me that they can stay this trip in this sort of company. Bellflower Boy will almost certainly need this run. I wagered on LE BEAU BAI several times last season and he will be finishing strongly but almost certainly too late. I think REVE DE SIVOLA is better than his OR142 and he will prove hard to beat even with top-weight. FIVE DREAM from Paul Nicholls stable and with Ruby Walsh in the saddle ran very well fresh this time last season off OR132 when 2nd at Market Rasen beating a race-fit field of proven performers. He comes into this on OR128 and the trip and going should suit him. Personally, I would want more than 7/1.

Selections:
Hexham 3:15, STAGECOACH AMBER, 1pt win @ 4/1 with Ladbrokes
Chepstow 5:50, REVE De SIVOLA, 1pt win @ 7/2 available generally

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.